Analysis of Putin’s speech on Federal Assembly on anniversary of beginning of war

Author: Юрій Бутусов

He stated that Russia continues to support the government of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic. On February 21, 2023, the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, delivered a message to the Federal Assembly. The head of the aggressor country spoke about the war in Ukraine. He stated that Russia continues to support the government of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic.

• In his speech, Putin did not mention human rights issues and problems with access to medical care for local residents. Also, there was no mention of problems with shelters for children and problems with human rights in Donbas. Putin did not mention problems with access to local resources, human rights problems in the ARC, and problems with access to local resources in the ARC.

1. Everyone expected Putin to define the results of the war for the year and strategic goals for the future. But most of the speech was about social and economic and humanitarian development, in which there was no news. So during the analysis of the speech, it is necessary to determine not what was said, but what was not said.

1. A year ago, Putin said that he was going to immediately eliminate the "clown, drug addict" regime, and "carry out denazification and demilitarization" of Ukraine. That is, the goal was announced. Many times Putin said that "the special operation is going according to the previously approved plan". A year has passed, and it is obvious that the goals announced by Putin have not been achieved, and the strategy has led to a fiasco. But there was not a word about new or old goals and strategies.

1. Putin did not mention the number of human losses in the war. Although the number of losses is a key factor that determines the effectiveness of actions and the prospects of the war. Since March 25, 2022, the Russian government has not reported any losses. According to the calculations of Western countries, all the wars between the USSR and Russia after World War II together did not cause as many losses as one year of Putin's war in Ukraine.

1. In his speech, Putin did not mention the problems with human rights and access to medical care for local residents. Also, there was no mention of problems with shelters for children and human rights in Donbas. Putin did not mention the problems with access to local resources, human rights in Crimea, and access to local resources in Crimea.

• No assessments of the feasibility and effectiveness of the Russian military actions for the year - were there defeats, what was the reaction to these defeats, who is responsible?

1. Regarding the war, Putin has only made two specific statements. First, every half year every Russian occupier must receive a vacation of 14 days. That is, the war terms are not declared, but it will be long-term, for years. Secondly, Putin spoke about the program of army development in 2021-2025, making changes, and strengthening investments and benefits in the defense-industrial complex for rapid rearmament.

1. Regarding foreign policy, Putin announced the suspension of participation in the agreement on the limitation of strategic offensive weapons. This is a symbolic step towards breaking with Western countries, which in fact has already happened long ago. Putin said that Russia will invest money in the accession of the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia.

Conclusions:

1. Russia will not declare war on Ukraine and the West. Putin is creating a situation of permanent military readiness in Russia for the absolute control of his power, and this military state is not linked to any goals or strategies, it can last for many years. His doctrine can be called "the circle of enemies".

1. Putin is planning to carry out active combat operations for a long time, with significant losses of Russian troops, so information about the victims of Russians is the most painful for him. He is ready to talk about the conflict with the West, even about the fall of GDP, but not about the victims that arose as a result of his decisions. He is afraid of responsibility not for the lives of citizens, but of public recognition of his military weakness and inability to achieve success in aggression.

• For Putin, the important thing is the obedience of the army, not its effectiveness. In the case of permanent war, the government will not change, but on the contrary, it will be concentrated. Putin has no criteria for assessing military operations from a military point of view, so the state of affairs in the army is not needed, as long as the army maintains obedience. And the losses of personnel in a totalitarian country are not a problem. Critical losses will become a problem for the Russian command only if it begins to cause problems with mobilization.

Yuri Butusov, Censor.NET.