Obama's Inaction on Ukraine Could Empede Nuclear Disarmament

The muted American response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could produce consequences far beyond Eastern Europe, according to security analysts who fear the crisis may discourage countries in the future from swearing off nuclear weapons like Kyiv did in a 1994 treaty.

Three years after the Soviet Union's breakup, newly independent Ukraine was compelled by the three nuclear superpowers to enter into the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, a treaty that guaranteed its signatories would respect the "territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine" and "seek immediate U.N. Security Council action" if the country should face an "act of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used," writes Jeffrey Scott Shapiro of the Washington Times, Censor.NET reports.

Although the agreement only requires the signatories take immediate action if Ukraine is threatened with nuclear weapons, experts on foreign policy and on Russia say U.S. inaction risks signaling to countries like Iran, Pakistan and North Korea that their sovereignty could be at risk without a nuclear arsenal.

"Arms reduction should be a policy in consideration for all nations that have them. But I don't think that's the reason that Ukraine is experiencing the problems it is having," said Brad Blakeman, former adviser to President George W. Bush and former president of the national security group Freedom's Watch. "The reason is a weak America and a Cold War relationship with Putin where there is neither respect nor fear of the United States.

The U.S. has no credibility. Why would anyone enter into an agreement with us now?" he asked.

Stephen Blank, a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council who specializes in Russian affairs and international security, agreed.

"To countries like Iran and North Korea, this is one more example that giving up their nuclear weapons makes no sense, because no guarantee will stand," he said.

Prior to the 1994 accord, Ukraine harbored the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world. In April, Ukrainian parliament member Pavlo Rizanenko told USA Today that many of his colleagues were already discussing the possibility of rearmament.

"We gave up nuclear weapons because of this agreement," he said. "Now there's a strong sentiment in Ukraine that we made a big mistake."

Then-acting Ukraine President Oleksandr Turchynov also wrote an op-ed for The New York Times warning that the apparent consequences of Ukraine's disarmament "may lead to nuclear proliferation around the world."

Ariel Cohen, director of the Center for Energy Natural Resources and Geopolitics at the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said the situation "looks like a disaster for Ukraine, but more importantly, it looks like a disaster for the cause of nonproliferation.

"This is because the three principal nuclear powers guaranteed Ukraine's territorial sovereignty in exchange for its abandoning its nuclear weapons, and now the Russians are paying a relatively low price for violating the Budapest protocol."

Mr. Cohen, who spoke to The Washington Times via telephone from Kyiv, added, "This sends a strong signal to proliferators such as North Korea, Pakistan, Iran and others that any kind of security guarantees from the existing nuclear club are not worth the paper they are written on. Events in Ukraine have turned a nonproliferation regime on its head."

The Budapest Memorandum also promised that its signatories would not place undue economic pressure on Ukraine so that it would not be compelled to surrender its power in exchange for financial aid; the current Moscow-Kyiv conflict erupted in March after the Ukrainian Parliament ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych for accepting a $15 billion bailout from the Kremlin.

When the crisis began, the State Department issued a press release in March noting that President Obama had called then-acting Ukraine President Oleksandr Turchynov "to assure him of the strong support of the United States," and also called Mr. Putin to tell him that Moscow was violating the 1994 treaty.