West fears bloody and difficult liberation of Crimea, - Economist
Ukraine’s Western partners are cautious about the return of Crimea and occupied Donbas. The publication notes that Ukraine may face resistance from Russian partisans and should think about the dangers of narrow, open lanes or swampy areas.
This is written by The Economist, reported by Censor.NET with reference to Ukrainian Pravda.
"Military operations in the Crimea, as a rule, end with thousands of dead: in the last century alone, hundreds of thousands have died, primarily in the civil war in Russia and the Second World War, not to mention the huge casualties during the Crimean War of the 1850s.
The capture of the peninsula usually required the crossing of narrow, open lanes or swampy areas.
Military experts who know the topography of the peninsula well note that the topography of the peninsula should make Ukraine think.
Admiral Mykola Zhibarev, who in 1992 triggered the collapse of Russia's Black Sea Fleet by declaring his frigate to be Ukrainian, now says diplomacy is the most promising way to reclaim the disputed territory.
Andriy Ryzhenko, a retired navy captain who was born in Crimea, says a lot of things need to be done right for a successful operation. "There is a real prospect that everything will end in bloodshed. This is an operation that Ukraine does not need," the publication writes.
It is noted that Ukraine's Western partners fear that an operation to return Crimea or Donbas (from a military point of view, perhaps an easier proposition) could push Russia to escalation and even to the use of nuclear weapons.
The former commander of the airborne assault troops of Ukraine, Mykhailo Zabrodsky, said that the operation to return Crimea is not only possible, but was also being prepared for 2023.
However, he could not say when exactly this operation could begin.
Zabrodsky also insists that Ukrainian military planners have developed tactics that can work.
According to him, Ukraine has no intention of engaging in a senseless frontal assault on Crimea: "There are other "interesting" possibilities for maneuvering combined forces, using ground forces, naval landings and air attacks."
Russian naval and air dominance can be prevented with the help of "asymmetrical tricks".
He added that the attacks by Ukrainian drones on the Black Sea Fleet at the end of October, the damage to the Admiral Makarov flagship and the destruction of part of the Kerch Bridge were examples of Ukraine's thinking: "We will surprise people - and many times - again."
Political leaders in Kyiv admit in private conversations that it will be more difficult to return Donbas and Crimea.
They admit that a significant part of the population there remains hostile to Kyiv.
The operation to retake Crimea is likely to encounter partisan resistance from pro-Russian forces.
The Ukrainian command is discreet about its next steps.
Sources in the Armed Forces say that "nothing is excluded", including operations on the territory captured by Russia until February 24.
Roads leading to Crimea are now within range of Ukrainian firepower, including Himars, which have complicated Russian logistics.
The Russian-appointed authorities in Crimea are preparing for a ground attack, ordering the construction of new fortifications and trenches and declaring a state of emergency in several parts of the peninsula.
Local residents of Dzhankoy report that trenches are being built near the airbase.
The primary task for Ukraine remains the destruction of the Crimean bridge connecting the Russian mainland with Crimea.
The Russian military also understands this and accordingly developed and manned defense lines.
A military intelligence source is confident that Ukraine's structural advantages, primarily its ability to organize highly mobile surprise attacks and disrupt supply lines, will prevail.
"We have demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and emphasis on logistics are correct. We will show it again," the source said.
The publication notes that an attempt to return Crimea will be costly in military terms and will lead to a split with the allies.
