American intelligence assesses prospects of Ukrainian offensive as "modest", - WP
According to US intelligence, Ukrainian forces during the spring offensive can achieve "modest" results and liberate less territory than last fall during the breakthrough in the east and south of the country. The American military has already warned Ukrainian colleagues about this.
This is stated in the publication of The Washington Post, Censor.NET reports. The publication cites a classified US military document that was leaked online during the recent leak.
The US intelligence assessment is dated to early February. It mentions significant "shortcomings in the formation and maintenance of forces", as well as the likelihood that such an operation will lead to only "modest territorial gains".
The document indicates that Kyiv's strategy is to win back territory in the east and advance south to cut Russia's land bridge to Crimea.
It said that Russia's powerful defensive fortifications, combined with "persistent deficiencies in Ukraine's training and ammunition supply, are likely to complicate the advance and lead to increased casualties during the offensive."
Judging by the marking of the document, the information was obtained with the help of intelligence and radio engineering using methods used by the CIA and the National Security Agency.
American officials also said that this assessment was supported by the opinion of the National Intelligence Council. There they believe that Ukraine will hardly be able to win back as much territory as Kyiv won back last fall during the stunning breakthrough in the east and south of the country.
The American military warned Ukrainian colleagues about such prospects. In mid-March, General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Jake Sullivan, and Defense Minister Lloyd Austin exchanged views with the Ukrainian side.
According to the results of the conversation, the American officials reported, Ukraine began to understand the limitations of its capabilities during the offensive, and to prepare accordingly.
The publication's interlocutors noted that, according to the US, Ukrainian forces are unlikely to be able to break the land bridge to the occupied Crimea. But they could at least jeopardize the free movement of Russian equipment and personnel in the corridor, which was a lifesaver for the invasion force.
Earlier it was reported that photoshopped documents of the USA and NATO on the preparation of Ukraine's counteroffensive were published on social networks. Subsequently, it became known that the US Department of Justice has opened an investigation into the leak of a huge number of US intelligence documents that were published on social networks in recent weeks.
According to Reuters, classified information about US and NATO plans to strengthen the AFU before a counteroffensive "leaked" on the network may be a fake. In turn, as Politico writes, a crisis in relations between the US and its allies arose due to the leak of secret documents.
Censor.NET also wrote that due to the leak of secret American documents, Ukraine has already changed some of its military plans.
