Peace between Ukraine and Russia unlikely in short term, - Latvian intelligence
The annual report of the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service states that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia is unlikely in the near future.
According to Censor.NET, this was reported by Delfi.
Russia is failing to achieve its initial objectives and is dragging out the negotiations
It is noted that the current pace of the Russian army's advance is currently insufficient to achieve the Kremlin's initial goals—the surrender of Ukraine in the near future.
This year, Moscow will likely focus on the complete capture of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This will have both political and military significance.
The Military Intelligence Service notes that it is highly likely the Kremlin is dragging out the peace talks because it believes it can sustain military operations longer than Ukraine can. At the same time, Russian offensive operations in other regions of Ukraine indicate that Moscow will seek to capture and maintain control over as much territory as possible in order to weaken Ukraine militarily, politically, and economically.
The current balance of power prevents either side from making rapid progress or forcing the other to make significant concessions.
"Although the Russian armed forces continue to carry out attacks using mechanized forces, the frequency and, most likely, the doctrinal necessity of their use have significantly decreased," the SVRB notes.
A stalemate on the front lines
According to the Latvian service’s assessment, a shortcoming of Russian tactics is the limited ability to achieve rapid territorial gains, as the infiltration and buildup of infantry behind enemy lines proceeds slowly. The use of such tactics makes the battlefield less linear: in the frontline zone, control over the terrain exists in the form of small "pockets" controlled by both sides, where one side or the other attempts to gain the upper hand over the enemy by gradually capturing the positions under its control.
As a result, instead of a clearly defined front line, there is often a large "gray zone" where the warring parties fight for control of positions. Infantry infiltration tactics do not reduce heavy casualties, but Russia can afford this because it has so far managed to recruit a sufficient number of new soldiers, notes the SVRB.
"Russia has reached the limit of voluntary conscription and therefore will not be able to significantly increase the size of its forces in Ukraine in the future without declaring a full or partial compulsory mobilization," suggests Latvian intelligence
The conclusions of the SVRB are consistent with the analysis of another Latvian intelligence agency—the Satversmes Protection Bureau—which stated that the likelihood of strategic-level changes on the front lines in Ukraine over the next six months is very low.
