Regarding Trump-Putin talks in Alaska

Author: Yurii Butusov

1. Putin did not announce any new conditions prior to these negotiations. The conditions effectively mean Ukraine’s capitulation and voluntary surrender of 25% of its territory. Russia has already proposed this on numerous occasions.

2. The US did not announce any new conditions for guaranteeing the implementation of this agreement and security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine had already signed a peace agreement in 2014-15, and Putin violated these agreements, despite the fact that France and Germany were guarantors. Trump is offering a deal, but he does not want to become its guarantor. That is, peace without security guarantees will lead to another Russian attack in a few years.

3. Putin has been willingly negotiating peace with the US and the EU for 11 years. He knows that Western leaders change, and personal guarantees and commitments disappear with them. And Russia's negotiations with Western countries have one goal: to split NATO's united position on Russia in order to prevent further strengthening of sanctions and support for Ukraine.

4. Russian troops continue intensive attacks along the entire frontline, and the enemy is trying to completely seize the Ukrainian Donbas under the guise of peace talks. Thus, the subject of the negotiations should not be Ukraine's withdrawal from Donbas, but the recognition of the occupation.

Conclusions:

1. Putin will drag out the negotiations with Trump, and there will be no quick fix.

2. Russia's military operation to fully seize Donbas will intensify, Donbas has been and remains a key theatre of operations. Ukraine should make every effort to finally build a modern defence line in Donbas for Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and immediately strengthen the defence of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

3. Ukraine will have a strong position in the negotiations only if it can stop the Russian offensive for several months. And we have enough forces for such an effective defence and destruction of enemy assault units - this is not only my opinion and conclusion, but also the opinion of dozens of commanders with whom I communicate. The deployment of combat-ready corps is needed here. The only guarantee of Ukraine's security in the negotiations is a combat-ready army that will stop the enemy by force of arms.

Yurii Butusov, Censor. NET