What will happen next? Yurii Butusov’s forecast
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
1. The main driving force behind reforms in the country at the moment is the people holding placards, and the key question is: will people continue to demand change, and what sort of change exactly?
2. There were two slogans on the placards: ‘Bring Fedorov back’ and ‘Sack Syrskyi’. The second slogan has now been fulfilled. It has been fulfilled, evidently, so as not to have to fulfil the first.
3. It has become clear that the conflict was not about the strategy of the war – otherwise they would not have removed both the minister and the commander-in-chief so instantly and simultaneously, leaving the army without any continuity or handover of responsibilities. The conflict was not a personal one between Fedorov and Syrskyi, for if that were the case, they would have removed just one of them. That leaves one pragmatic reason: the conflict was over who would allocate the 40 billion euros of the European loan for Ukraine’s defence, which was released in May. And the only post on which this allocation depends is that of the Minister of Defence.
4. Fedorov has received offers for posts whose sole significance lies in having a photo taken with him, complete with handshakes and smiles. But if Fedorov now accepts any post other than that of Defence Minister, it means he was not fighting for principles, but was seeking a lucrative job.
5. It is clear that this public struggle is a build-up to the vote on the post of Minister in the Rada in August. And here, either Fedorov will manage to inspire and broaden the movement of support within civil society and the army, or the new candidate, Yevhen Khmara – an officer with considerable standing in the unmanned aerial vehicle community – will manage to build his own political profile, which will enable him to secure the necessary votes in his favour.
6. The main thing is that the political process does not hinder changes and the resolution of the army’s key problems. So that issues such as ‘Kostiantynivka’, ‘Sloviansk’, ‘Kramatorsk’, ‘Druzhkivka’, ‘Dobropillia’, ‘Kupiansk’, ‘Lyman’, ‘Vovchansk’ and ‘Sumy’ are raised and resolved. Because if we, having all the opportunities and resources at our disposal right now, were to lose the key historic cities of the Donbas – that burden would weigh on the conscience of everyone who failed to do everything necessary to save Ukrainian soil.
Yurii Butusov, Censor.NET
