Economy is revving up, real GDP will not fall this year, - NBU forecast
In 2022, the real GDP of Ukraine decreased by 29.1%. This is the largest annual decline in the economy in the entire history of the country. But growth is expected already this year.
This is stated in the commentary of the National Bank, Censor.NET reports.
The NBU noted that due to the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation, already in the first quarter of 2022, the decline of the economy reached 14.9%. In the II quarter of 2022, real GDP decreased by 36.9% in annual terms.
However, the successes of the AFU and the anti-crisis measures of the government and the National Bank made it possible to gradually stabilize the macroeconomic situation.
According to the NBU, the first signs of recovery of economic activity appeared in the spring, which continued in the summer and early autumn. As a result, the fall in real GDP slowed to 30.6% year-on-year in the third quarter.
But at the end of the year, the recovery of the economy was interrupted by the consequences of Russia's large-scale attacks on the energy infrastructure, which led to a significant shortage of electricity in Ukraine. Some enterprises have adapted to the disruptions. Others could not adapt to these conditions. The shortage of electricity led to a deepening fall in GDP in the IV quarter - up to 31.4% in annual terms.
The NBU notes that the actual fall in Ukraine's GDP in 2022 was smaller than the forecasts of many organizations.
According to the National Bank, at the beginning of 2023, the economy returned to recovery thanks to a much better situation in the energy sector, further adaptation of business and the population to the conditions of war, and international support.
"It is expected that the economy will continue to revive and in the current year it will be possible to avoid a fall in real GDP," the review says.
