Lack of ammunition at front and delays in Western aid are already forcing AFU to save resources, this may affect upcoming counter-offensive operations of Ukraine, - ISW
The lack of artillery ammunition, combined with delays in providing security aid from the West, probably already forces the Armed Forces to save weapons and may delay future Ukrainian counteroffensive operations at the front.
This is reported by the analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Censor.NET informs.
It is noted that the problem of the lack of artillery shells and the delay of Western assistance may lead to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to choose priority areas for military operations, yielding to others.
The ISW recalls the statements of the commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops Tavria Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, who said in an interview with Reuters on December 18 that the Ukrainian forces are experiencing a shortage of 122-mm and 152-mm shells along the entire front line. According to him, the lack of shells is already forcing the Armed Forces to redistribute artillery ammunition and reschedule military tasks.
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Ivan Gavrilyuk also admitted on December 18 that the ammunition shortage would continue. Tarnavskyi added that Russian forces now also have problems with artillery ammunition, although, according to Ukrainian and Western officials, the invaders are currently able to conduct artillery fire five to seven times more intense than the Armed Forces.
Analysts note that both the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces probably spent a significant part of their stocks of 122-mm and 152-mm artillery shells of Soviet times, which forced both countries to look for other sources of these ammunition abroad.
In particular, Russia has recently received a large number of such shells from North Korea, and Ukraine and its Western partners are making efforts to obtain these shells from foreign stocks..
"It is unclear what delays or obstacles may arise in the efforts of Ukraine and the West to purchase 122-mm and 152-mm shells and how any such delays may contribute to the current shortage of shells in Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are increasingly using 155-mm artillery systems provided by the West along the entire front line, so possible delays in Western security assistance may affect the existing supply of 155-mm shells, although US assistance packages recently included such shells," the ISW noted.
Gavrilyuk said that Ukraine is now focusing on domestic production of drones to compensate for the shortage of artillery, and plans to produce 155-mm ammunition in Ukraine along with Western companies in 2024.
The Institute for the Study of War notes that the lack of artillery shells and the delay in Western assistance "will create uncertainty in Ukraine's operational plans and will probably force the Armed Forces to save resources."
It is noted that this may force Ukrainian forces to make difficult decisions about the priority of certain sections of the front compared to sectors where limited losses of territories will cause the least damage.
Before that, Ukrainian officials noted that they make periodic changes to what can be considered approximate operational plans for the war for 2024, based on the situation at the front. One official allegedly said that it was "difficult to conduct military calculations on these plans due to the significant reduction in Western aid from September 2023."
Against this background, General Tarnavskyi stressed that Ukraine is preparing reserves for further large-scale actions.
"Lack of artillery and delays in Western assistance are likely to reduce Ukraine's ability to plan and prepare for these actions. Delays in specific operational planning and material means necessary to prepare for a counteroffensive on its part will delay counter-offensive operations in 2024," the ISW added.
