If Russia wins, Ukraine will face terror and NATO will be severely tested. However, there is alternative - FT
This is stated in the Financial Times publication, Censor.NET reports.
"The West is toying with the idea of letting Vladimir Putin have Ukraine," the publication claims. It reminds that this year, Western aid to Ukraine has decreased by 90% compared to last year. And European voters, incited by pro-Putin far-right politicians, are beginning to get tired of the war in Ukraine.
The FT provides a list of consequences that the world may face if Russia wins.
- The Russians will unleash a terrible terror in Ukraine. The publication reminds us that they have already carried out mass executions, castrations, rapes, torture and abductions of children in the occupied Ukrainian territories. "Attacks by Ukrainian partisans will only further fuel Russian repression. Millions of new Ukrainian refugees will head west, this time for good," the FT writes.
- According to the newspaper, the Ukrainian state can be preserved in the west of the country, as Putin is not very concerned about the fate of this region. This Ukraine may even join the EU. But in that case, Russia could continue to shell the area, regardless of what agreements are reached. The Russians already have experience of repeatedly violating the Minsk agreements.
- If Russia wins in Ukraine, Putin will control a quarter of the world's grain exports. He is already seeking to use not only gas but also food as a weapon.
- Russia's success could inspire other countries that dream of attacking their neighbours: China, Venezuela, Azerbaijan, and Russia itself. The possible creation of a Ukrainian army-in-exile that would attack Russian forces from European countries would only encourage Russia to attack these places. Putin has already built a war economy. His army has updated its methods, and the population has shown that it can accept a major war. "Putin's fan Viktor Orban would do well to consider that Hungary borders Ukraine," the FT writes.
- If Russia wins, NATO will be discredited and face its biggest challenge yet. If Putin attacks the Baltic states, the Alliance will likely send in its troops. But for how long? As soon as a few hundred Western soldiers return home on a shield, right-wing parties will demand peace, referring to unrealistic agreements with Putin. At the same time, no one wants a nuclear war.
The FT writes that Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defence is not sacrosanct. Other international agreements - from the UN Convention against Torture to EU rules on budget deficits - have already been violated, and there have been no consequences.
"The two pillars of the so-called 'international community' - the British government and the presumptive Trump administration - appear to have given up on international agreements," the FT writes.
Americans and Western Europeans feel safe because Putin is not going to attack them. One possible scenario is that European countries will invest heavily in defence, including nuclear weapons, while allowing Putin to bully them. In such circumstances, the article says, "abandoning Ukraine would be a choice".
As an alternative, the FT proposes a scenario in which Europe would take over from the United States as the main source of support for Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute, the assistance provided on a permanent basis would amount to €40.8 billion a year - €70 per EU or NATO citizen.
"We can find the money if we want to," the FT writes.
