Russian Army will intensify its offensive in early 2024 - ISW
In January-February 2024, weather conditions will become more favourable for the movement of armoured vehicles, making it easier for the occupiers to conduct offensive operations.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Censor.NET reports.
According to US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, it will be easier for Russian troops to conduct offensive operations, particularly around Avdiivka in Donetsk region, when low temperatures freeze the ground in late January and February.
"Since 2014, the autumn "mud" season has hampered ground manoeuvres of both Ukrainian and Russian forces. Instead, periods of prolonged frost, usually beginning in late December, freeze the ground and allow armoured vehicles to move more easily than in autumn and spring," ISW analysts reminded.
They clarified that the current weather in Ukraine is variable. In the case of a milder winter, the period of severe frost may come later than expected or not at all. This will give a shorter period of preparation of the terrain for mechanised manoeuvre warfare.
"Russian troops have launched localised offensive operations along the entire frontline in eastern Ukraine during the most difficult weather of the autumn-winter season. In this way, the aggressor is trying to seize and retain the initiative rather than wait for severe frosts. Russian troops are likely to try to maintain or intensify these offensive operations regardless of the weather conditions this winter, as they did in the winter of 2022-2023," the ISW report says.
