In 3-5 years Russia can create potential that will be enough for limited actions against NATO - Lithuanian intelligence
While Russia is at war in Ukraine, the threat of a conventional military conflict with Lithuania and NATO's eastern flank is low. However, in the medium and long term, the likelihood of a conventional military conflict between Russia and NATO will increase.
According to Censor.NET, citing LRT, this is stated in a report by the Department of State Security and the Second Department of Operational Services of Lithuania.
"In the medium term, Russia is unlikely to be able to build up the capabilities needed for a large-scale conventional war against NATO. However, Russia may develop military capabilities sufficient to launch a limited military action against one or several NATO countries," the assessment states.
It is noted that the medium-term perspective in this case means 3-5 years, and the long-term perspective - 6-10 years.
The threat assessment states that further growth of Russia's military power will directly depend on the course of the war in Ukraine - as the needs at the front decrease, Moscow will be able to form new military units and build up reserves faster.
According to intelligence reports, to meet the needs of the war in Ukraine, Russia is moving troops and equipment from various regions, including Kaliningrad Oblast.
However, the threat assessment shows that the Kaliningrad military group is still capable of performing its main tasks.
"The capabilities currently demonstrated by Russia in the event of a military conflict against NATO would not be sufficient to establish dominance but could disrupt NATO’s actions in the Baltic Sea region," Threat Assessment report says.
"The A2/AD (anti-access and area denial) developed by Russia in the Baltic Sea region, and especially its air defence capability, although partially degraded, is operational and capable," the document stresses.
