War in Ukraine could end as soon as this winter – Lithuanian Finance Minister Valis
Lithuanian Finance Minister Taurimas Valis suggested that Russia’s war against Ukraine could end as soon as the winter of 2026–2027. In his view, heavy Russian military losses, the occupiers’ limited gains on the battlefield and pressure from US President Donald Trump could bring this about.
Valis said this in an interview with Rapporteur, Censor.NET reports.
"I hope the war in Ukraine will stop this winter. I have a feeling that it will end," the Lithuanian minister said.
According to him, NATO estimates put Russian military casualties at around 40,000 a month, with the figure rising to 52,000 last month.
Valis also noted that, according to Ukrainian officials, Russia had suffered around half a million military casualties over the past year while making minimal territorial gains.
"They do not value human life, but even for them, this is too much," the minister said.
Valis cited the symbolic significance of dates for Russia as another argument. He suggested that the war could end by February 24, 2027, the fifth anniversary of the start of the full-scale invasion.
In the minister’s view, Donald Trump, who needs concrete foreign policy results, could also influence developments.
Specifically, Valis suggested that escalating tensions surrounding Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could prompt the US president to step up diplomatic pressure and try to weaken ties between Moscow and Tehran.
What guarantees Ukraine needs after the war ends
The Lithuanian minister stressed that the European Union must prevent a repeat of the Georgian scenario, in which the conflict remained unresolved after the 2008 war with Russia and Moscow retained its influence over the country.
"In my view, we will have to provide Ukraine with as many guarantees as possible, including financial guarantees," Valis said.
According to the minister, Ukraine has one of Europe’s strongest armies, battle-tested technologies and significant potential to develop the European defence industry.
Valis stressed that the European Union should view Ukraine as a valuable future partner rather than a financial burden.
He also suggested that ending the war could become one of the key issues during Lithuania’s presidency of the Council of the EU, which begins in January 2027.
