How to stabilize frontline
Another stream is devoted entirely to the situation at the front - what is happening in the war and how to stop the Russian offensive.
Another stream is devoted entirely to the situation at the front - what is happening in the war and how to stop the Russian offensive...
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MAP OF HOSTILITIES IN AVDIIVKA
So, let's start our review of the situation with a map. Let's look at the map and see what's happening in the hottest part of the frontline. This is Avdiivka.
It has now become known that over the past week, the enemy managed to advance up to two kilometers in Avdiivka using a sewer pipe into such a... such a narrow passage has appeared, and our troops have now covered this area of the breakthrough. Fierce fighting is going on there. The enemy is trying to advance, to break through.
The pressure also continues. This week, the enemy's main efforts are focused on pushing through our defense from the south. The distance has narrowed a lot. In fact, the corridor controlled by our troops is about 4 km, a little more than 4 km. The road, the only communication route, is under our control. Of course, the enemy is trying to block it, strikes and continues to put pressure with small groups of infantry.
The main attack is coming from the south. These attacks by small infantry groups continue. The enemy is trying to attack constantly. The reserves we have are also holding back the Russian offensive. There are no attacks by large forces, no attacks by large armored forces. Everything is very minimal because the enemy's approach routes in that direction are very vulnerable. And the enemy on foot is accumulating in small groups and trying to storm position after position.
The situation in Avdiivka is very complicated. The Ukrainian command sees it and understands it. The main problem is not the enemy's unexpected moves. The main problem is that the enemy simply has an advantage in the number of replenishments. And our troops have been there continuously in Avdiivka since March 22, without rotation. Our 110th mechanized brigade. Because of this, of course, there are significant problems with the replenishment of personnel. The enemy is using a constant approach of its reserves to group for unoccupied positions, to infiltrate everywhere. Unfortunately, we see that in one of the cases, the enemy has actually succeeded in doing so. The enemy is now on the outskirts of Avdiivka. Three streets in the private sector are being fiercely fought over. The entire route, this sewer pipe, this direction has been identified by our soldiers. That's why this area is being attacked now. I don't think any further such dangerous events, any breakthroughs in this area are possible now. Our command is focused on this sector. We hope that reserves will be redeployed in the near future to completely close this breakthrough.
Avdiivka is a zone of heavy fighting, the most intense. No fresh brigades are approaching there, but the Russians are sending significant forces of their marching replenishment there. That is, the Russian command, the Russian Federation, continues to mobilize and send constant replenishment to its combat units. Therefore, because they put pressure on the same places, they are able to achieve success where we have problems with reserves. What is important to say at this stage?
THE MAIN PROBLEM IN THE BATTLE FOR AVDIIVKA
First of all. Avdiivka is facing the following problems. The first problem is that the enemy is outnumbered and significantly outnumbered. The enemy outnumbers both the first line and the replenishment. Secondly, since the beginning of the year, Russian aviation has been conducting massive strikes on Avdiivka, throughout the entire construction area. Sometimes there are days when the enemy drops up to 50 guided bombs to hit our troops. The buildings are dense, the enemy is simply destroyed. The Russians decided to completely turn Avdiivka into a scorched earth. And the third factor is drones. The enemy is trying to create a superiority in drones in the area, to use as many fpv drones as possible, not only during the day but also at night. That is, these three factors, that is, the narrowing of the defense area, allow the enemy to use these three factors, and now the question is how this advance will be stopped.
We see that the issue here is not just about numbers. The question is how to counter this Russian invasion with technical means. Avdiivka is undoubtedly the hottest spot on the frontline right now. However, it should be noted that the enemy is trying to take the same active steps in all parts of the frontline in the direction of Kupiansk. In the direction of Lyman, offensive actions also continue. Heavy fighting is taking place in Zaporizhzhia in the area of Verbove-Robotyne-Novoprokopivka. Very active fighting continues there. The enemy is trying to advance south of Avdiivka. That is, there are fierce battles. The enemy is trying to capture the village of Pervomaiske, south of Avdiivka. The control of Pervomaiske by Ukrainian soldiers does not allow the enemy to make a deeper bypass of Avdiivka from the south. To do this, they need to take Pervomaiske. But this village has been heroically held for a long time by the soldiers of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade. They are also inflicting very, very heavy losses on the enemy.
The enemy is also trying to advance from Marinka, to go further. There is fighting in the Marinka direction. After the enemy captured it, they tried to move further to the west. There are also quite fierce battles there. And as always, high combat activity and the enemy's attempts to drive our troops out continue near Bakhmut, in the area of Klishchiivka and Andriivka. Thus, we see... the enemy is also trying to strike, very actively in the direction of the village of Yahidne. This is also at the junction near the town of Siversk. The enemy is also trying to advance there, to strike at our troops. That is, everywhere the Russians have created attack areas, are trying to create an advantage in the amount of ammunition, military equipment, drones and infantry replenishment. That is, this flow of assault groups that the Russians are preparing is directed to certain designated strike areas. Everyone understands that year 24 will also be very difficult and bloody. And every day, unfortunately, we continue to suffer losses, and Russia is trying to move forward. To completely knock out all those areas that Ukraine gained during the fighting in 23, in 22. Russia is trying to get it back. So the question is: where will the stabilized front be stopped?
We talk a lot about the offensive. And when they talk about an offensive, I do not support these conversations. Not because I don't want Ukraine to be liberated. It's just that we need to understand that in modern warfare, an offensive requires a very serious advantage over the enemy and inflicting defeat on the enemy. That is, the enemy must be exhausted. At the moment, Russia has organized mobilization and constant replenishment of its infantry at the front. Therefore, the enemy is far from being exhausted now.
PUTIN MAY ANNOUNCE A NEW MOBILIZATION
Moreover. At the age of 24, we need to understand that there is a risk that after the presidential elections in Russia in March, Putin may announce a new mobilization. That is an additional contingent of troops that will serve as a strategic reserve that will replenish and prepare further offensive operations. So this is a serious challenge we are facing. And now we need to understand that the strategy and the outcome of not only the '24 campaign, but the war as a whole, depends on the speed of action by our leadership, the leadership of Ukraine. Because for a long time, we have not been able to stop the Russian offensive almost throughout the entire zone of active hostilities.
What should we do? From what I'm seeing at the front, I understand that we need to make immediate systemic decisions, which will mean that we cannot consider mobilization as a means of exchanging infantry for infantry. For us, the exchange, the entry into battles with the Russians, where there is an exchange of manpower, where this exchange is even one-to-one, is an absolutely unfavorable ratio. In this ratio, we are losing. We are weakening faster than the enemy. The only way we have... We need to analyze what our strengths are in general. The strengths of the Ukrainian army are the high motivation and high intelligence of its personnel, which, unlike the enemy, allows us to implement and scale technological solutions much faster during combat operations. What we need now is for the Armed Forces Command and the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to analyze the course of the fighting. And to immediately create a doctrine that simply changes the tactics and strategy of our troops. It changes the organization of the defense forces. I am not talking about any global reorganization. We will not switch to NATO standards. This is too far for us. We need to do what we can do now, immediately. Implement it within a few weeks. We need to create a different technological structure for the army.
Unfortunately, I have written many times about cases when our drone operators are sent to conduct assault attacks. Such cases... I wrote about a case a few days ago. As a part of one of the reconnaissance battalions, a whole group of drone operators were sent to attack as assault troops with assault rifles instead of doing their combat work with a drone - destroying the enemy, looking for the enemy. Unfortunately, the people who were sent into battle with assault rifles were killed. Although they would have been much more effective if they had been piloting drones. And this situation has a great resonance. This situation, unfortunately, is observed in many of our units. Why is this happening? Because the structure of our army is not adapted to modern technological warfare. As it turned out, all the drone operators sent by the reconnaissance battalion to attack were not in the position of drone operators.
THERE ARE STILL NO POSITIONS FOR DRONE OPERATORS
Because after two years of war, the General Staff has not yet introduced positions of drone operators in the reconnaissance companies of the reconnaissance battalion. There are no such positions. That's why all drone operators are fighting, some of the dead have been fighting as drone operators for a year and a half, but they fought in other positions - as shooters, grenade launchers, scouts. But not as drone operators. There were no positions. We need to reorganize the army and create positions for technological warfare. It is impossible to hold off the enemy with just the number of infantry. It is unrealistic. Our advantage is in intelligence, not in the number of people with Kalashnikovs in their hands; Russia has more Kalashnikovs. Russia has more grenades. And there will be more. We do not have so much meat. We have intellectual people who are motivated. What can we have an advantage in? We may have an advantage in the quality and quantity of the use of drones. Drones and the technical means that ensure drone warfare are our advantage. Drones need electricians with electrical equipment. Drones need qualified operators. Drones need qualified communications and control systems. Competent command for the mass use of drones. Drones need mechanics for cars. Drones need engineers to use different types of munitions. That is, a large number of technical personnel to make drones effective. And drones can completely replace people in many situations, I would even say in most combat situations that arise at the front. Drones have limitations. Yes, they are not an absolute weapon. So far, there are restrictions on their use in different weather conditions. Yes, there are such limitations. In certain types of terrain, inside buildings, some thickets. Of course, drones cannot replace people at all. But nowadays, technical means, i.e. drones, are supplemented by ground sensors - cameras, surveillance systems that are mounted on trees, on houses, on the ground. If this is built fully, it can completely remove the infantry's surveillance functions. It can protect people. It can reduce the number of people on the front line and thus make it possible to actually save lives, destroy the enemy more effectively and use modern technological methods of warfare. We need to mobilize people who really should go to the technological army.
For 2 years, the army needed heroes. Heroes left from the first day. And they kept coming back. People who are ready to destroy Russian tank columns with a rifle and a grenade launcher. But it's been 2 years of war. We cannot keep fighting with the same people. People are dying. People get wounded, contused, psychologically traumatized. They get sick, break down. They cannot fight all the time. Age, chronic illnesses are getting worse, traumas are very difficult. Therefore, people need to be replaced. In order to replace people effectively, we need to reduce the number of those who are constantly on the front line. That is the most important people who run the greatest risk. How can this be done? Well, not by finding several hundred thousand more heroes somewhere after one wave. They are not there. We have to be realistic. The problem now is mobilization. Mobilization is stalled because we need hundreds of thousands of heroes. Well, they are gone. That's it. There are still heroes in the army. But a significant number of people are no longer in the army. How can they be replaced? Who can replace them? They can only be replaced by modern technological methods of warfare. Only technology. Nowadays, the scaling of technological systems allows us to build a front of equipment on the front line where active hostilities are taking place. Our active area is about 800 kilometers. This area needs to be completely covered with cameras, and we need to have a reserve of cameras. We need to have a reserve of different types of sensors. Electronic warfare systems must be installed there to protect personnel from enemy drones. There should be a system of drone use everywhere and a significant number of drones at all levels. But for this, everything needs to be rebuilt.
A CHANGE OF STRATEGY IS REQUIRED
First and foremost, the strategy. This should be provided for by the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. This task should be defined. Because of such a strategy, such changes, require resources. At least some of the resources. At least set standards. At least show a model of how it works. It has to work. It's impossible to expect that people will just be driven in again, that people will come. People are not infinite. You can buy a Mavic. You can't buy a drone operator. And when someone is planning a counterattack, an attack, they need to realize that there will be no replenishment later. You can buy anything from the equipment, except for people. The people who service this equipment are invaluable. They cannot be wasted. You need a strategic decision.
THERE IS AN ARMY OF DRONES, BUT NO POSITIONS
The General Staff should not just write a doctrine. Last week, the General Staff approved the UAV doctrine. It is very good that it exists. But after 2 years of war, we still do not have drone operators in most companies. And where they have been introduced, in a significant number of armies, positions have been introduced, for example, one UAV operator per company. This is meaningless. In modern warfare, to fight a drone war, you need to look at the survivability of the infantry first and foremost. For the infantry to survive, at least 6 positions of drone operators should be provided in the company. And two positions to support them. There must be an engineer and a driver. People need to be fed and provided with supplies. Someone has to provide transportation. This is an organizational process. The company now needs a UAV unit. Then there should be 6 operators and a commander. There should be someone responsible for logistics and supply. There must be a driver, there must be an engineer. This is the minimum. Therefore, the organizational structure should provide for all this. Is it provided for? No. We just need assault rifles in the army. Where can you find stormtroopers on the street? The only other place we can find stormtroopers is in our law enforcement and security agencies, especially in the central apparatus. If you walk around Kyiv, you'll see a lot of powerful people in the President's Office, in the central offices of law enforcement agencies, who are engaged in who knows what - surveillance of journalists, organizing provocations against journalists, squeezing businesses, raiding, extorting bribes from entrepreneurs. There are a lot of adults, and men. They have resources. Stormtroopers can be recruited in Kyiv and large regional centers. But this is all one resource that will run out one day if you fight like this. Only with people. Now we need to fight with equipment.
The enemy's infantry, these living waves, need to be countered with equipment. Drones can now destroy any stronghold. They can destroy an enemy assault group completely, to the last man. Drones must work. Of course, this requires the organization of management. To do this, the military must receive a task from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's office, develop a project on what a modern infantry company, battalion, or brigade is, for example. What specialized corps should be there, for example, what specialized battalions should be in the corps. The number of positions for electronic warfare, electronic signals intelligence, drones. We have words about the production of a drone army. The drone army should start not only with the fact that there are technicians, drones themselves. We need support for them, tactics for them, and control. Commanders must understand that the drone is now the main means of defeating the enemy and controlling the territory. Not a soldier with a rifle. All this needs to be implemented, prescribed. Then there will be results.
If we don't have it, if we don't rely on equipment, it's almost impossible to build a reliable defense. It is unrealistic. The enemy outnumbers us in terms of munitions, and we cannot exchange human lives for Russian missiles and shells. We need to build a defense system, and it must include technical means, first of all. It is from the equipment that an operation should be planned. From the equipment. This equipment is available. It can be purchased.
Volunteers, citizens of Ukraine support, donate and provide the army with a huge amount of equipment. But we need to describe it. There must be a doctrine, a logic. The documents must be up-to-date. This needs to be done now. The UAV doctrine was written two years after the start of the full-scale invasion. This is great. But how long will these changes be implemented? Another year? At that rate, the war will be over. And we still have the same organizational structure as in the 70s of the twentieth century. The Soviet one. There are no positions of UAV operators in the intelligence services. It's just hard to imagine. So, dear friends, the problem of drones is a key one. If we have a changed technological structure, mobilization will take place in a different scenario. I believe that mobilization should still come from technology. We need to mobilize engineers, people who know how to work with drones. People who know how to work with electrical equipment. People who know how to work with medicine and other things. They should be mobilized immediately to specific positions and assigned to these positions. War must become a profession. It cannot become just a job. It has to be a profession.
We need to appoint professionals to the appropriate professional positions, and not throw people around in the hope that if a person is strong-willed, he or she will join the stormtroopers. We do not benefit from this exchange of people. That is why I said that the enemy will increase its numerical superiority. If the war goes on like this, we will continue to retreat. Now, only now, two years later, work has begun on equipping the defense lines in Donbas. This is very nice to hear... but again, doing this exclusively by the forces of the state special transport service of the Ministry of Defense is a very long way to go, because this organization does not have a significant number of personnel, resources, equipment. It will not be able to do in full what we need to do now. We need to mobilize organizations. Construction organizations that know how to build, have equipment, and have specialists. It is not a question of digging immediately on the 1-2 km line. We need defensive lines 10-15 kilometers from the front line. We need engineering equipment so that the brigades themselves can dig positions up to 5 kilometers away. We need engineering equipment and specialists in its use. And the best organizations that can also manage and administer this process. This should be beneficial for builders. They will receive certain orders and they will receive reservations for their specialists and their engineering equipment, which the state will not take away. And it will not take away people. They will keep their staff. And the state will have organized fortified areas. This is what is needed. We need to dig all the time.
Since the Russians are now in all cities, villages, any houses are simply demolished by bombs and rockets. To continue to use only houses there to accommodate personnel is simply risky. The enemy wants to destroy Eastern Ukraine completely to make it unusable for defense. We need to understand this. And we need to do it now... you can't dig reliable defensive positions in these weather conditions, but a lot can be done. Many necessary engineering works can be carried out even at this time. And then prepare for when it gets warmer. All this requires planning. Planning and involvement of public and private construction organizations that need to be mobilized as organizations for specific work. If they are there for engineering work and there is a clear reservation, people will work efficiently. They will know that they are doing what they know how to do. The same is true for other specialties. Mobilization will be successful when those people who are not heroes with machine guns are mobilized for those specialties that correspond to their professional training. Or if a person is not trained, then he or she must train for at least 4 months to become an assault rifleman. I'm talking about adults. 4 months of intensive, high-quality training. And not only in our training centers, where, unfortunately, there are big problems but training should be provided in the training units of combat brigades. In all brigades, such freelance training units have been created. Because the replenishment is sent absolutely not ready to perform tasks. And they all undergo additional training. Therefore, the big question is whether we should continue this erroneous practice of training infantrymen in training centers. They do not provide quality training for infantrymen there. The training centers may have some specialized courses on some weapon operators and types of weapons. Infantrymen receive the best, high-quality training only in the brigades themselves. Brigades need to be allowed to get people earlier so that the brigade can plan this 4-month minimum course itself. In 4 months, a person can gain a lot of knowledge in a brigade with combat instructors, build trust and get along with the team. This is a fundamentally important story. That is why mobilization should be understandable to society. It must be logical. This is not the case now. And Russia is mobilizing. We need to resist this.
So, dear friends, the drone army, mobilization, and the construction of defensive structures are all complex strategic decisions. If they are adopted, then in 2024 there are opportunities to stop the Russian offensive. If it is again a struggle for landings and the search for heroes who are ready to sit, dig a hole, hold out for 5 days under fire, and then go on an assault, well... I want to say that such people are over. I hope so. I hope that our generals will no longer have illusions that someone will come and give them what they need. I must say that neither President Zelenskyy, nor the General Staff, nor the Minister of Defense should think that there will be a panacea now, that people will join the army. They will not do it just like that. You don't just conscript people. It will not happen just like that. People need to be mobilized so that they understand the logic of what they will do in this war. Society needs clarity, certainty. Then there will be a result.
"MOBILISATION OF THE MIND"
The army is faced with the task of using the intellectual potential of Ukrainian society. This is what mobilization should be aimed at in the first place. We are mobilizing the intellect first and foremost. We have no other way out. This is our only advantage.
Now, friends, we will answer the questions that we have.
Mark: Has any work been done on the construction of fortifications in Avdiivka since the start of the new offensive in this area after you drew attention to it?
Dear friends, in Avdiivka itself, to build fortifications, we just need more people. There are no additional people there because everyone is stretched thin, everyone is in combat. You cannot bring engineering equipment to Avdiivka. It is very risky right now. Now, after I have conducted this information campaign, not because of me, but because of the resonance, the number of reposts, likes, and republications that came from what I said, and the fact that many combat commanders had such a demand before, put forward by them. Now the state leadership has assessed the situation and the movement has begun. It is not fast. But it has begun. Some facilities will be completed in the near future. We need to understand what? Such actions require planning. We have big problems with this. And such actions require good, normal weather. Right now is the most inconvenient weather for the whole year. But we have started something. God willing. I have written and I want to repeat it again. We need to build, Donbas should turn into a fortified area. That is why we can and should dig lines beyond Avdiivka to cover Myrnohrad and Povkrovsk. These strips, these fortifications will be used by troops in the second echelon, the third echelon of defense. But they are also needed. Because the enemy is massively using drones, missiles, and bombs. And the troops need to be dispersed to a great depth to reduce the effectiveness of enemy strikes. That is why it is a big job to build a frontline there. Now, Mark, they are starting to build something. Unfortunately, not as much as we need. But let's hope there will be changes.
We get a lot of interesting questions. A lot of them.
ABOUT OUR LOSSES
(unintelligible) The head of the Servant of the People faction said that Ukraine's losses are small and much less than 100,000. He proposes to disclose them. Do you think this is appropriate?
No, I don't think it's appropriate at all. Moreover, I think that the statement itself is absolutely ridiculous. When the head of the faction, one of the leaders of the state, says that our losses are not so great, it does not fit in my head. He says they are less than 100 thousand dead. You know, I think that the head of the faction, David Arakhamia, has simply never been to the front. Obviously, he is very far from the war. Because it is absolutely unacceptable to talk about the losses to the country, the numbers are really terrible, in such a tone. It's just disrespectful to the dead. The lost life of every Ukrainian citizen is a real tragedy. These tragedies happen in tens and hundreds every day. It's not to say that the losses are insignificant, they are less than 100 thousand. We have to talk about it, write about it. I hope that David Arakhamia will just put the words he said on himself. What do you mean, less than 100 thousand is not much? Imagine that, for example... he is asked a question not about the losses of Ukraine, but... I don't know... about the losses of the Servant of the People faction, if, God forbid, they are sent to the front. Will he say so calmly that our losses there are small? Unfortunately, we see that our Servants of the People are very detached from the people, from the war, and allow themselves to say such stupid things that it is a shame to comment.
As for the actual side, dear friends, it is not profitable for us to disclose our losses, because the enemy can draw its conclusions about our mobilization potential. Our losses are not classified. We do not have decrees on posthumous awards and titles. Unfortunately, they already give us an understanding of a certain dynamic in the deaths of our soldiers. It makes no sense for us to speak in general. There is no logic in it either. We are at war with an enemy that outnumbers us. Therefore, I do not see any logic in discussing our losses. What is the rationale for this? There is a difficult war going on. If one of the Servants of the People had been killed, or if one of David Arakhamia's friends or relatives had been killed, he would not have said such nonsense either. But he is doing very well because for him it is not such a big number. For all sane people, this is a big number and a big tragedy. That is why we have to raise this issue of social security for each person who died, we have to talk about what needs to be done to prevent people from dying. But to give general statistics during the war, what we have and what we don't have, makes no sense to us.
Oleh Fomin: Do you think we will hold the Myrnohrad-Kurakhove-Selidove line?
My friend, we are not fighting for this line now. We will hold Avdiivka for now. Avdiivka is the point of connection, as the Germans say, of the entire Donbas front. So far, we are doing everything to hold this front. I hope that it will continue. The retreat from Avdiivka - I don't think it will be an immediate withdrawal. Even if the enemy manages to capture it. I don't see the Russians being able to capture Avdiivka quickly, in one fell swoop. I think the fight will continue and the enemy will lose many more of their reserves there and suffer very heavy losses. Our organization of any line of defense depends again on the three factors I started with. Construction of defense structures. Preferably, not just a soldier with a shovel and a log to block. It should be properly dug deep by equipment, a large number of them, long ones that allow for camouflage and maneuvering of both people and equipment. Concrete floors, which dramatically reduce the effectiveness of most weapons. With a complete overlap of trenches, masking the trenches from drones. This is the first condition. Secondly. This is the effective use of drones. It requires not only the quantity but also the quality of drone use and the quality of drone management. It is necessary to combine the units that work with drones into large structures for massive systemic work. And the third is the replenishment of people. If there is no manpower replenishment, no army will fulfill its tasks. There are no miracles. Now we need urgent measures to replenish people. These urgent measures must be taken. Then there will be a result. Then we will hold, then we can hold for a very long time. We simply do not have what I told you, we do not have it now. That is why we are failing at the front. We are not working from the equipment, but simply from the number of people with shovels and machine guns who are sent to the landings. This is no way to fight.
Next. Serhii Ivanovich. Thank you for your support, Serhii Ivanovich. What about state-owned drones?
STATE-OWNED DRONES
There is a significant problem with state-owned drones, as it turned out that the state has not yet signed a single contract for production in 2024. This million drones will not be produced in January. Now, according to my information, the State Special Communications Service will sign contracts next week, and in February, the Ministry of Defense will start signing contracts in two weeks. There are hopes that contracts will be signed with most manufacturers in February. Contracts should be signed with all manufacturers. Let's see how this will be done. After the contracts are signed, the manufacturers will finally have some working capital to buy equipment and necessary components abroad. And it will continue to come in some time. Therefore, this Million Drones program will objectively start operating at its planned capacity somewhere around... God willing, in April or May. Yes, it's optimistic. But it will be great. God willing. Because we need it. And unfortunately, at the moment the main suppliers of drones are small manufacturers funded by volunteers, funded by private organizations, and so far this situation will not change in the coming weeks. Unfortunately. Nevertheless, I want to tell you that even under such conditions, it is absolutely possible to produce a million drones of all brands, all types, most of them will be of course, fpv. If we were prepared and the state, instead of talking, prepared for procurement and the money was allocated immediately after... from January 1... I want to remind you that on October 1, military personal income tax was taken away from local governments. If we had started planning procurement immediately after it was taken away, it would have been a different story. We could produce not one, but two million drones a year, I think. These are absolutely realistic figures. Well, unfortunately, let's see. God willing, they will start. This is a real job. We have many manufacturers. They can do it with funding. We have a lot of organizations that have already taken up this work. We will monitor and watch. If the Ministry of Defense and the State Special Communications Service have any more hiccups, I will, of course, inform them. This is a fundamentally important issue.
DRAFT LAW ON MOBILISATION
Next. Serhii Marchuk: What's wrong with the law on mobilization? Is what Censor.NET posted true or fake?
Of course, this is true. So... this is a project prepared by the Ministry of Defense. Why should it be fake? The Ministry of Defense has not denied it. So, of course, this is a real project. This is a step forward compared to the draft law submitted by Kamin on December 25. But this new draft, which we have made public, has not yet been submitted to the Verkhovna Rada. I have said enough about mobilization today. I can only repeat that mobilization must be professional in all aspects. It should be tied to the current situation at the front and the current requirements and challenges in the war.
Denys Chub: Please tell us more about the operators of the 74th Battalion.
Friends, there is still fighting in that area. The 74th Battalion is fighting. So I can't give you any more detailed information at the moment. But, of course, as soon as I have the opportunity and opportunity, I will do so.
Yurii: Will there be any help from America or not?
Yes, the help from America is basically what keeps us going. The help will continue. We need to understand that what we have is already the help of the West. We are fighting only thanks to the support of our partners and allies. Because our state budget functions thanks to what our Western allies give us, and the vast majority of our weapons are weapons that we receive or operate thanks to our Western allies, supplies from them, ammunition from them, and all sorts of other things. Without the West, our war with a powerful enemy like this would not have been possible. There are political problems in America, of course. America is a world superpower. It must simultaneously support its allies in other hot spots. These are Taiwan, the Middle East, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. The Americans have to provide for and support their allies around the world and, of course, have their own resources, their own reserve to influence the situation if the situation becomes much more acute somewhere. Therefore, America builds its political strategy based on many factors that are challenges for it. It has its own state structure and security strategy. I am confident that in the near future they will unblock aid to Ukraine on a maximum scale and the aid will be delivered. I want to say that this year the Americans are changing the structure of their support. They are allocating very serious funds for the development of the Ukrainian military industry, directly helping many military enterprises, because I think that these will be qualitative changes as well.
Do you see any preparations for an offensive on Kharkiv?
At the moment, not only I don't see it, but our intelligence doesn't see it either... this scenario is possible. The enemy is preparing reserves, preparing troops. But so far, all their reserves are being used up in active areas on the Donbas front. The enemy is throwing all the reserves there. Of course, this does not mean that the threat to Kharkiv will ever be reduced or eliminated. We must understand that this is a very likely scenario. But the intelligence tools that we have and our NATO allies have today allow us to quite clearly record the movement and deployment of Russian troops hundreds of kilometers from the border with Ukraine. So I think that there will be no surprises and no suddenness here either. There were none on February 24. That is, the deployment of Russian troops around Kharkiv was on all satellite images.
Ksenia Holovchenko wrote to me. I want to tell you, Ksenia, that I have great respect for this situation. I understand what you are talking about. I cannot give you detailed information now, because I am not at the place where these events took place in the 74th Battalion. Therefore, I cannot give you any detailed information on any names. I do not have any information at the moment. We will have to wait for information from our comrades and the command.
Svitlana: Is there any reliable information about the downed plane?
At the moment, the only reliable information we have is that which we have objectively, which is confirmed by the Ukrainian authorities. And the information that is confirmed by objective video surveillance data. An Il-76 airplane was shot down near Belgorod. A Russian military transport aircraft. That is, a military aircraft. Yes, it was shot down. I understand that there is information that there were Ukrainian prisoners on board. I can't confirm this at the moment. The Ukrainian authorities are not confirming it at the moment. And I do not consider it necessary to be ahead of our authorities in covering such information. I want to say that this information noise that was created was created thanks to... unfortunately, we have very talkative press services of some law enforcement agencies of the state. I do not approve of such things. There are situations in the war that we cannot check and establish. We have to wait for the evidence. In this case, I will also wait for a message from our authorities. Were there any Ukrainian prisoners on board, and how many? Who exactly? At the moment, it is impossible to refer to Russian sources. You understand that. They are waging an information war, provocations, everything, any situation, any situation, without exception, is blamed solely on Ukraine. Ukraine is to blame for everything and that's it. So let's wait for our information.
Serhii Hryb. Thank you, Serhii, for your support. Kharkiv welcomes you, Yurii, please tell us if there is any career development for talented young commanders?
Of course, there is career development for commanders. This is a natural process. There are young talented people among them. There are young untalented ones, and this also happens very often. In general, the problem of leadership and management in the army is very acute. The main problem in modern warfare is that in order to promote young talented commanders, the country's top leadership, especially the country's top political leadership, must set criteria for what kind of military we need, what kind of commanders we need. Which commanders with which qualities are promoted and supported. This requires attention. The attention of not only generals. The attention of politicians. Because of commanders, each military unit is its own separate world... new combat techniques, new methods of working with people, some new qualities are born there. Someone is effective. Some are less effective. We need to look at why this is happening. Someone retreats because they have no ammunition or people. And someone retreats because they cannot manage the large number of people they have been given. So all of this needs to be analyzed.
I want to say that we have a big problem - the lack of criteria for assessing the performance of commanders set from above. And secondly, such an assessment from above is impossible in our country because we do not have a post-operational analysis procedure. The NATO procedure, I've talked about it a lot. After action review. We need it, but we don't have it. This is a big problem in Ukraine, because there is no such independent analysis of actions during the battle. This is not an easy thing. Analysis of the results of combat in modern warfare should not be based on reports. Because we have a department in the General Staff that analyzes the course of hostilities. What does it do? This department has created positions in brigades of officers who are responsible for analyzing combat operations and preparing reports. But. The preparation of written reports about a battle that took place in the current situation is a completely unworkable story. It doesn't work because the reports are written, and they can only be made after interviewing a certain number of combatants. We need to interview everyone who made the decision. And they are all busy with something. Either fighting, or traveling somewhere, or not having time. Then they often make some contradictory, subjective conclusions. That is, our system is an additional line of bureaucratic stories. In modern warfare, of course, we need to pay a lot of attention to analysis, but to the analysis of video information. Video information eliminates any subjective, biased things from the analysis of the situation. The video clearly shows the main thing. Did you see the enemy from the drone, did you see your troops from the drone. How the enemy and your troops acted. How the damage was inflicted. That's it. There is no need to analyze anymore. Who thought what, said what, predicted what. You look at three components: where the enemy is, where we are, how accurate the damage is, and what we use. That's it. This is enough. Unfortunately, there is no such perception of modern warfare, because we do everything the old-fashioned way, instead of using modern technologies, modern equipment, adapting the army to the challenges of the times - unfortunately, we are lagging behind in this. Therefore, there are problems with the promotion of commanders. And talented ones. The young are promoted, but the talented, unfortunately, not always.
Mark. Mark, thank you for your support. What do you think about the US elections and the high probability of Trump's victory?
Basically, I want to tell you that we have such a difficult situation, sometimes critical, that what will happen when the United States... we will solve problems as they come. I do not believe that America will stop supporting Ukraine. I think it is impossible for America and it would be a disaster for the entire democratic world. The forms of this support can be changed. We will see. Now I see that America is based on institutions. Trump is supported by the Republican Party. I don't think it's possible in America for a president... it's not like here, where the president sits in his office and says and does whatever he wants. There are institutions in America. There is a system of fuses. There, the parliamentary opposition has really serious rights, powers, and the ability to control the government. Nothing will happen there just like that.
F-16
Slavik Kukhta. Thank you, Slava, for your support. What is the situation with F-16s? Are they available in Ukraine?
To be honest, I don't have this information. I think we should wait for official information. I think the F-16 will appear in the near future, because it is being talked about, I read these reports. I just don't want us to have the effect of inflated expectations. The F-16 will be another means of impressing, very good, effective, and wonderful. They will be used primarily as platforms for guided bombs. We need these planes because we have an aviation industry, and the resources of the aircraft are very much consumed. The F-16 is a modern airplane. Well, we need to prepare for this. We need infrastructure, operation, so we will wait. I wouldn't pin my hopes on this being some kind of wunderkind, a panacea that will immediately resolve the course of the war. No, it will improve it significantly. It will increase Russian losses, significantly. It will reduce our losses. But this is just another important means of warfare. Unfortunately, Russia outnumbers us in terms of aircraft and guided bombs. That they have. This gap is very large. With the arrival of the F-16, this gap will be slightly reduced.
Oleksandr Vasylovych Prysiazhnyi: is people's fpv - a working scheme?.
Friends, I don't think that... I think that for training, training itself is a good idea, good courses were launched by Mariia Berlinska with the support of the Ministry of Digital Transformation, that people should learn how to assemble drones. This is a good, right idea. I support it. Who needs it? It is needed so that those people, especially young people or retired people, who have time to study, to improve, have skills or great motivation, can learn this specialty - to assemble, to solder. This is basically the right initiative to increase the number of technical personnel capable of doing responsible work, albeit simple in its functionality, but very responsible work that needs to be done well and with certain technical knowledge. So this is a great program, and I welcome it as a training program. As for making drones, of course, once a person has learned how to make them, and has assembled at least one drone in the kitchen, it means that he or she has talent and a drive for it, and should go and work. We now have dozens of companies that produce drones and dozens of teams. Of course, production should be done in a conveyor belt, in teams that have technological control, work with spare parts, test all spare parts, the administrative part that provides logistics, and the financial part that allows the project to scale. So I think that in principle, for me, the people's fpv initiative is a plus, but I perceive it a little differently than some officials initially presented it.
Natalia, San Francisco. Thank you for your support. What is happening to Valerii Markus now? He has disappeared from the information space.
I'll call Valerii and ask him what's going on. I think he is a very energetic person. I think he's pulling himself together. He continues to serve in the army. I think he has taken a break from media activity, but we will see and hear from him many, many times. I will be very happy about that.
Artur Lytvynchuk: Russian presidential elections on March 17, possible outcomes, scenarios, consequences, impact on the war.
Artur, yes, I have already mentioned this. I just expect them to mobilize again in '24 because they don't have enough people. Putin said today that they have 617 thousand people in Ukraine. But at the front, we see that the enemy also lacks people in the infantry, and the front needs significant reserves. Therefore, I think that in 2024 there is a threat, after these elections there will be another mobilization wave, they will conscript people, prisoners, everything will go.
18+ MOBILIZATION
Credo: I heard the hero of your last interview say that all men and women over 18 should be mobilized. Do you think that the phrase "everyone will fight" will have the opposite effect on society? There are not many heroes among us, and most of us will start thinking about how to save ourselves. Their choice will not be the front.
Friends, there is a problem here. This is the question... if we want the state to exist, it will have to be defended. Most likely, we will have to defend it, because we are fighting an enemy that outnumbers us, who declares its main goal to simply destroy Ukraine in general. If there is no resistance at the front, they will gladly capture the whole of Ukraine, entering Uzhhorod, Mukachevo, and Chop. The main problem is that in this interview given by Lieutenant Colonel Nikolov, he said that all human resources should be used. And young people should be mobilized, he said - please listen carefully to Nikolov - he said that young people should be mobilized not to be thrown into battle, but to receive long-term full-fledged combat training in the rear and serve as a reserve. And eventually they could be used as a reserve when they grow up. But if they are mobilized, I don't think that 18 years is the best option, I think that we should mobilize people later - 21-22-year-olds. But not to be immediately thrown into combat. I believe that these should be military units that receive training for at least 2 years. 2 years for a 20-year-old person, 2 years for a 22-year-old person means that they will receive full physical training, moral and psychological training, and psychological training. And the state will eventually have something to rely on. In 1-2 years, reserves will be prepared. If we don't start this work now, when will we start? Will people grow up again and go to a training center for 1-2 months at the age of 27? This is impractical for us. It will be bad for everyone. Next. Nikolov said in an interview that he was ready to lead a company of prisoners. That is, the main point of his interview was that the state should rely on any human resources during the war. Including prisoners. He even said that they shouldn't be caught and released, not caught in the Tisza and released. But if caught, they are brought to justice, and he said: then they can be used at the front, not even in combat units. There is a lot of work in the army that needs to be done in the combat zone, but not on the first or even the second line. We still need people there. That's why he said that if we want to - watch this interview carefully - Lieutenant Colonel Nikolov said that if we want to win the war, and we want to win the war, then all the human resources of the state must be mobilized, accounted for and to some extent used. This does not mean that everyone should be in the army, everyone should be on the front line. But if there is such a terrible offensive, then those people who are imprisoned and those who are trying to evade mobilization are also needed and should make their contribution to the war. They can also make their contribution. Again, this is a question for our mobilization system. Many people are afraid because they do not know what will happen to them. This is a big problem. A person should be mobilized into the army knowing what will happen to him. You see, you watched the interview, he said it clearly, and so does the state, so that there are no mistakes, no rumors, these things must be written down. For everyone to see. If there is a mobilization of young people, then there is preparation. At least a year in general. If a person is 20-22 years old, he or she has to prepare for at least a year. He or she must be physically stable, physically prepared, first of all. And professionally trained. Because these are unique personnel.
Friends, thank you for your questions. We have been on the air for over an hour now. Thank you for your great support. Thank you to our sponsors. 27 people joined us during the broadcast to support the work of Butusov+. I am very grateful to you for this. And I want to say that the enemy is advancing, but there are millions of people in Ukraine who will do everything for the Victory, and hundreds of thousands are now doing everything to inflict as many losses as possible on the occupiers, to stop the Russian invasion, dictating a high rate of losses to the enemy. And no matter what Russian propaganda says, believe me, the strength that Ukraine has is great. The enemy will not be able to predict it, to break it with a single blow very quickly. Ukraine has been demonstrating great strength for the past two years. And this is not all of it. If we change and stay ahead of the enemy in change, and we have the intelligence to do so, we can defeat the Russian occupiers again. Today, more than ever, I am still confident in the Ukrainian victory. Thank you for the broadcast and glory to Ukraine!
