What Putin will do at front after elections
The stream is dedicated to what awaits us now, after Putin’s re-election and what has happened in Russia. I cannot call it an election of power. Russia did not choose power. Russia chose war.
Russians have chosen war
It was a turnout for war and for the destruction of Ukraine. And most Russians, of course, took part in this. Therefore, having now received such additional support, the Putin regime will, of course, take further steps, implement its strategy to completely destroy Ukraine, as they constantly state and as Putin has said before and after this spectacle in the Russian Federation.
We talk about the situation on the frontline, as always, we give a brief map analysis of all the main hottest directions, and then we talk about what happened in Russia and what Russia will do after the elections. We can already see the main directions. Then we will discuss how Ukraine can react.
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Let's start by looking at the map of what is happening at the frontline.
Maps of combat operations. Situation analysis
Lyman-Kreminna
19 March. 755th day of the war. The situation in the area of Lyman-Kreminna. The enemy continues offensive actions in the direction of the village of Terny, village of Yampolivka. They are also trying to advance in the village of Torske. We have talked to you many times about the situation in this area. The enemy will try to reach the Oskol border-line. Access to the Oskol border-line, to this line from the villages of Zarichne and Torske up to the point where the Oskol flows into the Siverskyi Donets and to Kupiansk in the north, allows the enemy to capture a very convenient natural line that will become a base for them, to gain a foothold on this line. And once the enemy is entrenched there, it will be the most difficult task to knock them out.
At the same time, reaching this line will allow the enemy to approach, start fighting for Kupiansk and cut off the large area of the Serebrianskyi forest that is currently being defended by Ukrainian soldiers. Thus, at the same time, the enemy will pose a threat to the city of Lyman. So there are very heavy and fierce battles going on here. Of course, the intensity of these battles decreased for some time while the enemy was sending all the reinforcements to Avdiivka. Now it is increasing again. Our soldiers are inflicting heavy losses on the enemy. Unfortunately, the enemy is trying to continue its advance in some areas.
Avdiivka
This is already the area of Avdiivka. Berdychi, Berdychi-Tonenke-Orlivka area. The enemy managed to capture Orlivka after very heavy fighting, fierce, for several weeks, the enemy entered Berdychi and approached the village of Semenivka. The enemy has also captured Tonenke and is trying to advance further. Here, too, the enemy's goal is to reach the natural line in order to continue its offensive against the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk area.
In fact, the situation in this area is very difficult for several reasons, which we have already mentioned. First. The enemy controls the dominant heights - the city of Avdiivka and the Avdiivka Coke Plant, what's left of it. This is a very densely built-up area, especially the capital structures at the Avdiivka plant. They allow the enemy to maneuver quite conveniently, to accumulate forces, and it allows them to adjust fire very conveniently, to set up positions of their missile systems, antennas of drone operators at the plant and it is very convenient for the enemy to work, to use their weapons, because Berdychi, Orlivka, and Tonenke are all lowlands relative to Avdiivka. And the enemy has a height advantage here. Our defense is as complex as possible. From a tactical point of view, these positions are beneficial for us so that, in the rear, a few kilometers from Berdychi, when the heights that are favorable for us begin, high-quality defensive positions would be prepared there. And the positions that allow us to maneuver in defense. Unfortunately, this is the only reason we have to hold these places in this unfavorable situation. I would like to remind you that no serious stationary positions have been established in Orlivka, Berdychi, Semenivka or Tonenke. Unfortunately. No powerful defense lines have been set up there. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to hold these positions. In principle, it is almost impossible given the enemy's superiority in firepower. Therefore, we are gaining time at a very high cost. But it should be noted that our soldiers are inflicting many times more losses on the Russians here. Another series of videos has been released showing how a company of attack drones of the 47th Mechanized Brigade literally destroys an entire Russian assault squad near Berdychiv. 40 Russian soldiers were killed and wounded. 40 Russian assaultman, which are simply torn to pieces by drones. It's an impressive picture. That is, the enemy's losses are great. But unfortunately, we also have losses. It is really very difficult to hold this lowland, which is not equipped and not prepared for defense, and it was only a matter of time before the enemy had to capture these positions. Our soldiers have done more than we could have imagined in these conditions. We are gaining time so that at least the positions in the rear are prepared. We are gaining this time by inflicting damage on the enemy that is ten times greater than our losses in this area.
But. Of course, it is impossible to hold these villages indefinitely. The enemy is gradually advancing. From a tactical point of view, this is an understandable situation. I hope that our command understands this tactic and these conditions. There is nothing to pull up the troops who are now fighting in the area of these villages in a very unfavorable tactical situation. I think that our soldiers are doing more there than is humanly possible. And they are fighting with great dignity.
Marinka - Novomykhailivka
This is the situation in the area of Marinka-Novomykhailivka. The enemy continues to conduct very, very heavy fighting here. The Russians are trying to advance and are fighting for Heorhiivka already. They have advanced beyond Marinka. Heorhiivka is the direction of Kurakhove. That is, the enemy is trying to reach this city directly, a direct threat to Kurakhove. The enemy is also fighting in the village of Peremoha and is fighting for Novomykhailivka. This direction is very important for the enemy because they want to break through the front completely, break it, advance further, reach Kurakhove and start from this direction to threaten the entire southern part of Donbas, which is defended by Ukrainian soldiers, and it is especially important for the enemy to threaten Vuhledar. There were three important points on our Donbas front: Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Vuhledar. These towns stood on dominant heights. They were very convenient for defense and very difficult for Russian assaults. The terrain is in our favor. We have all the tactical advantages. The enemy managed to capture Bakhmut and Avdiivka with heavy losses, and now the enemy has a target - Vuhledar. They still need to break our front in Donbas. To do this, they are trying to attack Vuhledar, the entire south of Donbas, in all areas, to prevent our command of the Tavria OSGT from maneuvering forces and fighting back. So now there are very heavy battles for Novomykhailivka, for Heorhiivka, the enemy continues to put very heavy serious pressure.
Vuhledar
Next. This is the area of Vuhledar. Here, the enemy is trying to advance in some areas. They need to create a threat to Vuhledar. The enemy's advance here is relatively insignificant, but they continue to press again. They need to get as close to Vuhledar as possible. To get tied to the construction zone. This is a very important area for the enemy, I emphasize. Now we do not see such a large area of enemy advancement here. Vuhledar is a convenient position for defense. And the soldiers of the 72nd Brigade, which continues to defend this area, are doing everything possible to destroy the enemy. So this is the situation here. Heavy fighting is also taking place. Vuhledar is subjected to very massive air and artillery attacks by the Russian Federation.
Staromaiorske
Let's take a look at the neighborhood. The Staromaiorsk district. I want to draw attention to this area. Our troops were advancing here in the summer of '23. Now the Russians are doing everything they can to recapture the same positions they lost, and there are very fierce battles in the Staromaiorsk area. The enemy is trying to advance. There are a large number of Russian drones here, and the enemy is doing everything to isolate the combat area, prevent the rotation of our troops, and inflict maximum damage. There are very heavy battles in this area now and attacks are also regular.
Robotyne
This is the area of Robotyne. The enemy is trying to cut off this salient and continues to attack. They have captured and are advancing, Verbove is completely behind them. They are advancing. Obviously, we are now seeing what we have been talking about for months. They are trying to cut this salient which is very, frankly, inconvenient for the defense. It's a matter of holding this perimeter - there are only a few kilometers left. The enemy is shooting at it with all kinds of weapons, even 82-mm mortars. Drones of all kinds... This defense area, unfortunately, I think the command should already think about withdrawing to reserve positions. This is not just my emotional assessment. This is a map of the situation that we have before our eyes. The tactics speak for themselves. We are not on the offensive. We are on the defense. This configuration is categorically unfavorable for defense. I understand that the emotions of our military and political leadership, of course, Robotyne, a very large amount of Ukrainian forces and reserves were spent during the offensive in the summer of 23. But we have to be realistic. We do not have mass mobilization. We have no reserves. And to fight a battle in defense in such configurations is simply to waste your forces and minimize the enemy's losses, maximize your own.
This salient is not suitable for defense now. We need to really retreat here. We must not allow the enemy to knock out our forces from the flanks in such favorable conditions. Because they will now suffer losses and then move forward anyway. Right now, we still need to defend tactically advantageous positions. Otherwise, it will simply be a waste of resources that will not be enough for defense. It's not a matter of prestige. This is not the main area now. We do not have enough forces in the main areas. There are specific threats now. There is Vuhledar. There is Kurakhove. There is Avdiivka district, Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk. Of course, in terms of strategy and tactics, this is incomparably more important than this salient. We have to be realistic. This is not a matter of politics. This is a matter of tactics and strategy. We can fight effective battles if we have the capabilities, for example, to conduct counterattacks. That is, we spend certain forces, certain means. Do we have them to fight the enemy on an equal footing, to respond to an attack in the Robotyne area? Unfortunately, no. Why do we put ourselves at risk and go for an exchange in a disadvantageous situation where we lose more than the enemy? There is no logic in this. We are inferior in strength. We cannot afford a disadvantageous exchange. The situation near Robotyne, unfortunately, is just an example of an unfavorable ratio of battles in defense.
I believe that the headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief should consider this issue and take responsibility. I understand that it does not like the word "responsibility" and taking responsibility. But these are people's lives. People who are simply lacking at the front and in other areas. There are not enough in this area. There are not enough everywhere. This is life. It's ammunition, military equipment - we are there now, under fire from the flanks, to go in and out is a very difficult, very risky combat operation in itself. I hope that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, will objectively consider the situation in Robotyne. Supreme Commander-in-Chief Zelenskyy visited Robotyne before, just a couple of months ago. Let him try to visit now, let him be told that he can go to Robotyne now, at least to do a short photo shoot, but he will not be able to do it now. And just as he can't, it's hard for people to do it. It is difficult to fight. It is difficult. I am asking the command of the Armed Forces to consider this issue objectively, professionally, from a military point of view, and the political leadership of the country. Because someone has to make a decision, not wait. To see what? How our troops are being destroyed from the flanks? We need to be realistic and objectively assess our strengths and capabilities. This is what I am calling for. And to analyze. We need to get ours minds right.
Krynky
The Krynky area. The enemy continues to attack here, trying to fulfill Shoigu's promise, as we remember that the Russian Defense Minister told Putin that Krynky had been completely mopped up and that there were only some Ukrainians in the basements. We see that, in fact, in the basements, Ukrainians in Krynky are still defeating all Russian assault groups. But I also emphasize. Krynky, like Robotne, had a tactical sense. I'm talking about tactics now - only if we continue offensive actions in the south, then this fight make sense. What does offensive action mean? It means that there are certain reserves of trained military units, battalions, brigades, ammunition, weapons in reserve, and then when we attack from these footholds, we disperse the enemy's forces and thus constrain the enemy's maneuver, inflict greater losses on them, dictate the initiative, dictate the rate of losses, dictate the pace of hostilities, the intensity. Then it works. These are the bridgeheads. And just defending a bridgehead that has no reserves to hold, from a tactical point of view, from a military point of view, is the wrong approach. This is not my personal opinion. This is the opinion of those who perform combat missions. This is the basis of tactics. This is the logic of war. That's all. Therefore, I believe that in the Krynky area, as well as in the Robotyne area, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrskyi, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Supreme, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, should take responsibility, consider the situation, analyze the situation on the frontline as a whole and make an objective decision so that we do not have, as is often happening, let's say, a situation like this. There is trouble at the front. Leaders watch the situation by inertia. Then, with some delay, we find out that it's over, that it's the end of the line, and that the soldiers themselves decided to leave their positions. This is not the way to do things. You just have to do the math. War is a cost, first of all, of human lives. You can't treat it by endlessly waiting for the situation to develop. You have to make decisions and take responsibility. I would like these decisions not to be inertial, but to be made now, looking at the maps we see.
We looked at the areas. The only thing we haven't done is to look at a few more very important areas. I would like to mention a site we will prepare soon, the situation in the area of Nevelske and Pervomaiske. Unfortunately, the enemy managed to capture most of these settlements there. Very heavy fighting is going on there. The enemy is trying to advance. Its goal is to push the frontline away from Donetsk as far as possible and create a threat to the Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk agglomeration, to threaten Kurakhove in order to continue the offensive and seize Ukrainian land and a number of Ukrainian cities. To create a threat to Selydove. That is why the situation there is very dangerous. Nevelske-Pervomaiske is a place of very heavy fierce fighting. The review of the situation in the hot areas is now complete.
What will happen after Putin's election?
Let's move on to the second block: what awaits us after Putin's election?
I have already said: this is not Putin's election. Russians went to the polls to choose a war. The Russian government has built a system of total propaganda. The Russian authorities were preparing for an attack on Ukraine and prepared to act under Western sanctions. The West gave them the opportunity to prepare for this for a long time, for many years. And now, of course, everyone is watching, and the Russian economy is even growing in many respects. Why? Because they were preparing for the sanctions. They were preparing to diversify their markets. That is, they want to destroy Ukraine. Fully realizing all the risks. The main risk for them is a complete break with the Western world. They have already prepared for this. They are selling this idea to the Russian population. They are selling it quite successfully. Because Russia has now completely fallen into line with China's policy, has become dependent on China, and is completely in the wake of the policy of the countries that are now actually arming Russia. Russia is now critically dependent on North Korea. Russia is now critically dependent on Iran. Which are arming the Russian Federation. And of course, Russia is now cooperating with all authoritarian and terrorist regimes to wage a total war against the Western world. In this way, the power of Putin and his followers is guaranteed to be consolidated. That is, this is a technology for maintaining and strengthening this new Russian empire, the new Putin empire. So what will Putin do now that he has not actually achieved his re-election? You and I understand that he would have drawn any result, there would have been no protests. Because what happens to those who protest? Navalny was killed. What happens to those who even write bad things about Putin on social media? Even Girkin, who started the war in Donbas on the instructions of the FSB, has now been imprisoned. Everyone was shown that Putin is everything. He is a god in Russia. He can do anything. The elections were needed to show support for the course. So that all Russians would be forced to vote for the war and for the destruction of Ukraine. Because this was really the question in Russian society for many years.
Many of us have relatives in Russia, many have friends and connections. Now we have realized that most Russians do not care if anyone lives here. They have come to the conclusion that in order to destroy everything in Ukraine, anyone who is against Putin, who disagrees with them, they are ready to have everyone killed here, to destroy everything. Therefore, this reality allows Putin to demand even more sacrifices from Russian society. Russian losses now exceed the losses in all the wars and conflicts that the USSR has ever fought since World War II, and Yeltsin is the one they swear by in Russia. But, as we know from Stalin's example, the Russian people always like tyrants who demand sacrifice from them, Russian psychology has been like that for centuries. Now it is consolidated. What will Putin do about it? Of course, he will be preparing to increase mobilization in Russia. This is an obvious step. It can be announced officially, as it was in '22, urgently - we need 500 thousand more. In other words, Russia is now conducting an open data system - an electronic registration of conscripts. They are increasing payments for signing a contract to serve in the army. They have increased the number of ground troops and, of course, they will continue to increase the number. I don't think... there is no reason for Russia to mobilize millions - it's impossible. Russia simply doesn't have the weapons to do that. Not yet. But the fact that they can mobilize a few hundred people - yes, this is a real threat in order to create strike groups, strategic, operational reserves for further offensive actions in some time.
Dmitry Medvedev, who is also Putin's right-hand man, announced that additional divisions and additional brigades of the Russian army are being created. These will be ground forces, and of course, this is possible now within the framework of what Russia has, but the creation of new formations is impossible in principle. Russia, as we see every day, is suffering huge losses on the battlefield, and they have all they can do is hire, recruit, force into the army anyone, homeless, unemployed, marginalized, anyone. All this goes as marching replenishment. Because without constant replenishment of people, thousands of people, they would not be able to advance further. But this is all a kind of frontal pushing of our forces from certain positions for a very long time, at great expense. In order for the enemy to change the course of the war in his favor radically, he needs strategic offensive actions. Strategic offensives are meant to expand the battlefront. To increase the battlefront, they need strategic operational reserves. Now we see that the enemy has no such reserves. They have thrown everything they could at Avdiivka and Donbas. They are advancing. All these reserves are now being used up in assaults on our defense. For example, the fighting in the Belgorod People's Republic, in the Belgorod region, shows that the Russians are already having problems with numbers there. They cannot, for example, immediately launch an immediate counteroffensive. They are on the defense there. Their forces there are significant. The Russians have a numerical advantage in the Belgorod region. There, the offensive of Russian volunteers acting with the support of Ukrainian troops is, of course, as limited as possible. Because the enemy there is not inferior to us. But they are using all their forces for this purpose: border guards, military personnel, conscripts, special forces, territorial defense. They have sent large forces there. But the enemy cannot launch a quick counteroffensive there and completely clear the territory where the fighting is going on. This means that the enemy does not have enough reserves to expand the front line. I think they will be working on this in the 24th year now after the Russian people voted for several hundred thousand more Russians to be killed in Ukraine. Russians have chosen to die.
Putin, as we know, is compensating very successfully. He is compensating for the lack of a male population, the rapid decline in the male population of Russians, and he is compensating at a rapid pace. They encourage migration from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Central Asia and bring as many as possible to Russian cities, where there are more and more Russian widows, and Asian migrants are taking the place of their husbands. This is Putin's chosen strategy to replace the human resources wasted in the war. This policy, as we have seen in the elections, is successful. Russians like it. That is why they will carry out new mobilization and Russian men will be sent to war. That is the main thing. This is the first thing. Russia will mobilize more human resources.
Second. We should note the deployment of very high capacities of the Russian defense industry. The military industry. The military defense complex of the Russian Federation is now beginning to gain momentum. We see that this year the Russians have already launched mass production of primarily guided aerial bombs and literally increased the number of guided aerial weapons tenfold, which is a big very new and dangerous factor at the front.
Second. Russia is increasing the number of drones it produces. Three new drone production centers have been built at once, where several types of strike drones and reconnaissance drones of several types are being built. And we should note the obvious: the Russians have an advantage in attack drones and in drones, in the production of long- and medium-range reconnaissance drones at the front. And these videos of the destruction of the Ukrainian Patriot system, the Patriot battery, the HIMARS missile and artillery system, Ukrainian helicopters, and several other anti-aircraft missile systems are all consequences of the fact that the Russians are increasing the number of reconnaissance assets over our rear. They organize observation lines and quickly adjust their actions. This is a great danger for us. And the enemy is increasing it. The enemy is also increasing the number of drones of small types, small drones, primarily attack drones, fpv drones on the front line. Purchases from China, production of attack drones at state-owned enterprises and private enterprises are increasing many times over. And the enemy is not inferior in numbers. And in many parts of the frontline, Ukrainian troops outnumber the enemy in the use of drones. This situation has been going on for months. Drones are now the most dangerous main means of inflicting losses on our troops. Even air bombs cannot compare. Because drones are constantly causing us serious losses every day. This is a serious big problem at the front. So now, after the elections, the enemy will increase its advantage in numbers. They will be preparing systematic actions, and preparations are already underway in Russia. Second. The Russian people have practically voted in favor of lowering any social standards, and they will continue to be lowered. It is no longer necessary to increase any social guarantees, funding for pensions and salaries - all this is no longer important. The Russians have chosen war, so Putin will now quietly transfer the money that was spent on the social sector as much as possible to other areas of the budget of the Ministry of Defense, the military sphere. According to the draft budget for the year 24, experts estimate that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will have a budget of $120 billion. But in reality, friends, it will be even higher, because a large amount of Russian spending, in fact, 40% of their budget is classified spending. That is, Russia invests up to 40% of its total budget in the war. These are huge numbers. And then there are the local budgets, which also have their own large items, all of which are also spent on financing the hostilities against Ukraine. So, of course, this is a matter of their economy being further militarized and increasing spending on munitions and the production of military equipment and surveillance. So this is a serious challenge that the enemy is now systematically implementing.
Electronic accounting
We will not be able to respond to this challenge as a civil society alone. We need systematic efforts of our state. We need the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Volodymyr Zelenskyy to finally pay attention to the fact that the enemy is acting systematically and now they will rush ahead and get ahead of us. Mobilization in Russia has been in place since 2022. There, a new law was adopted quickly back on September 22. They quickly organized mobilization under this law, the new system. Now they will go further. And we are still - still - what is about the law on mobilization? There is still no electronic registration of conscripts in Ukraine. We still don't have an electronic record of conscripts. We are on the verge of it, we are fighting for our survival, for the enemy not to be able to destroy our state and our army. And we lack basic organizational and managerial actions. We have just begun - just begun - to build defense lines. Unfortunately, this process is only at the initial stage. And at the rate they are building... interesting details have emerged: in 23, according to Prozorro, which was published by journalist Yurii Nikolov, a little over 600 million UAH was spent on the construction of defense structures throughout Ukraine. I don't even know what was built for this money.
For comparison, the budget now announces that UAH 17 billion will be allocated. This will not be enough for everything, but many areas will be covered. Defense facilities need more than just money. They need management decisions. It is better now, while the war is still far away from many towns and villages, to mobilize people, even voluntarily, to work, to mobilize construction organizations to work, to build cooperation, than to send troops to unequipped positions, to plantations with just a shovel, as we saw near Avdiivka. This is absolutely... this is a step towards defeat. The Supreme Commander-in-Chief must pay the same attention to the construction of buildings as he did to the Great Road Construction.
By the way, you know, it's funny. I was constantly criticized by Volodymyr Zelenskyy's supporters that I was always trying to shift responsibility for military defenses to him. And suddenly, two years passed and Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: we... issued a decree, an order, and it turned out that he is responsible for military defenses. No one else can give such an order except him. It is the same here. I welcome the fact that the president has taken a step forward and we have started construction. But I just ask that we do it as quickly and efficiently as possible, and this requires mobilization of local authorities at various levels, construction organizations, and building normal cooperation with them, not just move on work. This is our common security logic. We need leadership for this. Only the head of state can do this, be such an initiator. No one else. He is the one who has the headquarters of the supreme commander-in-chief. I hope that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will realize this as soon as possible. We also need our own law on mobilization. There is a lot of discussion about what should be, what kind of coercion, how to do it, what categories, whether the third group of disabled people should be called up...
Friends, let's do this. Let's solve the systemic problem with some consistent steps. We can have a lot of discussions about what and how to do it. We need a single electronic record as soon as possible. And it can only be done on the basis of Diia. Someone may not like this. Someone may want to delete the Diia. But this is the reality. Do we want to win the war? Then we must act proactively. We have to be ahead of the enemy in organizational and systemic actions. We still don't have a unified electronic record of persons liable for military service. In fact, we need a unified electronic record of all Ukrainian citizens, who are eligible and involved in what. So that we can say: yes, women are here only voluntarily, only of their own free will. But, for example, if a woman wants to, not everyone has to fight.
Let's look at the economy. The defense industry is no less important than the army. These are absolutely comparable things. The only thing is that these should be reasonable things. We need to produce munitions, reconnaissance equipment, and equipment for the army. This also requires people. I have already said that I have seen many times how even 20-year-old girls solder combat drones and do it very efficiently, with high quality and conscientiousness, and they get paid for it. Women can also be hired for such positions in defense companies as part of the overall plan. They should be offered qualified, high-quality jobs. I think that there are many women and elderly people, men, for example, who are over 60-they would also be very effective in the defense industry. That's why we need to stop the Verkhovna Rada deputies from making a complete circus with this draft law, considering these amendments endlessly, not submitting anything, not voting. They are simply afraid to take responsibility for systemic and comprehensive actions. Therefore, I urge you, if the authorities are unable to do everything in general, you lack courage, responsibility, knowledge, understanding. I can understand that. The situation is dangerous. We need an accounting system. First of all, make a record so that you at least know how many people there are in Ukraine, how many men who can hold weapons, hold certain positions in the army, how many of them. And when you realize how many people you have-not across the Tisza somewhere, not in some paper register, but how many you actually have, what their limitations are now. Who are disabled people of the second or third group, who are guardians, who have 3, 5, 7 children. Who has what health condition, who has chronic diseases, who does not. Who is imprisoned and who is not. When there is such a register, the General Staff and the headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief will be able to use this register to make a realistic plan for mobilizing people to the Defense Forces and the military industry. Are these things that in the third year of the war should be chewed on like children in kindergarten? You cannot make a large mobilization system new, there is a lot missing. I understand that. You plan something, but to plan something, you need to have an accounting, an awareness of what resources we have. Because, for example, now they are discussing whether to draft guardians or disabled people of the third group, and there are such fierce battles, everyone is complaining about it. There is no point in this discussion unless we know what percentage of our population are disabled people of the third group, guardians.How many sick people we have. What is this percentage of the available human resource, of the mobilization resource? What is this in our country? We do not know the real number of men who can bear arms. How can you adopt further laws on mobilization when you do not know how many people, what categories of people you want to mobilize? I am begging you. I'm begging the deputies and the President of Ukraine to remind you that according to the law on mobilization and the Constitution of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine is responsible for mobilization and all decisions. Volodymyr Zelenskyy appears only when someone writes him a text with some obvious things. This simply cannot go on. If Yermak can't write you a text about mobilization, ask someone else. Maybe you can listen to my broadcast, at least keep a record. Instruct Fedorov or someone else to do the accounting. The president has to do it. Civil society, the army, which is sitting in the trenches without rotation, without reserves, cannot beg the country's leadership to do the basic things we all need for our survival and victory. These are just some weirdos. They are just weirdos. Come back to reality. I don't know how else to react to this. They are dreamers. Dreamers who talk too much and simply do not understand the subject. Unfortunately.
This problem of our government, the absolute ineptitude in the issue of mobilization, is simply amazing. It is impressive. Many months of empty talk. There is nothing behind it. I will be broadcasting about mobilization in the near future. I will talk about the priorities that, in my opinion, should be taken into account in this process. In the process - not in one law, but in the system. What to focus on and what to fix.
I want to say the last thing. Friends, we will not survive without mobilization and the law. And effective and proper mobilization will, on the contrary, reduce Ukraine's losses due to the fact that people who have been standing in positions for 5 days, and some for 10 days, will not be exhausted. There will be a normal rotation. Non-combat losses will be reduced. The effectiveness of the use of technical means will increase. War must be fought with equipment. And what kind of equipment do we have when the infantry lacks people and everyone is being sent to the front line: mortar operators, drivers, repairmen. How are you going to fight with equipment? They even sent drone operators. Fortunately, after the resonance created by the broadcast where I told the story of how drone operators were thrown into the attack and wrote about it on Facebook, an order was issued that prohibits one category of military personnel, namely drone operators, the General Staff prohibited their involvement in assault operations with assault rifles. Well, I'm glad about that. This is a very big step forward. But we don't need drivers and repairmen either, do we? Do we not need to repair and drive vehicles? We need them too. Equipment has to fight.
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
What do you think of Serhii Flesh's statement that in 5-6 months the Russians will have a drone for every one of our soldiers? What will happen then? Will the frontline collapse?
The Russians already have not just one drone for every one of our soldiers, but 10-20 of them. The frontline is not collapsing, but unfortunately, we are forced to retreat. But not only because of the drones. It's because the Russians have an advantage in the number of shells, because they are better at increasing their own production than we are. Much more, unfortunately. They get support from other totalitarian regimes. This is a big problem for us. Systemic solutions. The frontline is holding up now because our drone operators are doing their best on our side as well. Unfortunately, despite the fact that we have created troops, there have been no systemic changes in the use of drones so far. The army command does not understand the issue well. It cannot understand the tactics of drones, the organization of combat operations. This is what we need to do. So far, this is all on the initiative of the brigades themselves. It is good that most brigades already have drone companies and this is an organizational step. It has improved the organization of management and use of drones in the Ukrainian army. But when you see the spending on electronic warfare, electronic warfare equipment to protect against drones, when you see the spending on our drones, this is the only thing that keeps the front line standing. Most of the drones at the front are purchased by the state, I'm not saying that the state buys some, some are donated, but most of them are volunteer drones. It's all bought by businesses, citizens, military personnel themselves, local authorities from their own funds, which should be used to solve the problems of cities-it all comes from there. That's why we need to support it all. This is the only way to hold the frontline. Because the enemy has a large number of drones, and the number of drones used by the enemy will only grow. Unfortunately. And you can only fight technical superiority with your own equipment.
What should the Sumy region expect? Will the orcs break through the front? Shelling has increased 3-4 times
I have already partially answered this question. Now the enemy has no forces for an offensive. But they have increased the number of guided bombs many times over. This is the main threat. I think that after the mobilization in Russia or mobilization measures that will not be widely announced, Putin will prepare forces to threaten us on a wider section of the front. Then such threats could arise. Both Ukraine and our NATO allies have very powerful intelligence capabilities and, in principle, the concentration of Russian troops, the offensive of Russian troops will not be unexpected, we will get a timely warning. Such a threat will come after Russia is able to form strategic reserves. So far, there is no such threat. It just needs to be taken into account. This is not a matter of the near future.
What do you think about the statement by Servant of the People deputy Demchenko that a dictatorship can help us win?
What can I say? I think the whole country knows about the intellectual level of the ruling party. This statement is... another in a series of... you know, it seemed to me that you need intelligence to win. We are talking about this. Because, you know, when people are thrown into unequipped empty plantations with a shovel and a machine gun at the front, I have never heard anyone say that we need a dictatorship to win. I simply repeat once again that at the front, when people are thrown into bare plantations with a machine gun and a shovel, none of the soldiers say that we need a dictatorship to win. Everyone says that we need smart, timely intellectual decisions to win. This is what Ukraine needs to win. Of course, Demchenko, the People's Deputy, who is sitting in Kyiv, who has a lot of time, has been considering the law on mobilization for over a year. They are in no hurry. They have time. They are not risking themselves. They sit and think, what else, how else can we influence? Apparently, they lack the power. They are not thinking about defense. Demchenko did not say that he was talking about the defense of Ukraine. He spoke about the defense of his position, the positions of the Servants of the People, and the budgets that they successfully use, as we can see, only from journalists' stories, unfortunately, and not from criminal cases of law enforcement officers. This is what they are interested in. It has nothing to do with defense. This is such a shameful statement by the government, which does not do basic things. It took them two years to realize that they needed to build defense lines, not waste people. In the two years of defense, they have not established military justice, nor have they organized mobilization in Ukraine. They are still a dictatorship. It is necessary. You know... they lack intelligence. This statement is actually the only answer that can be given to People`s Deputy Demchenko.
Tell us about the new team of our military command.
This should be the topic of a separate program. Secondly, I want to say that it is not entirely correct to call this team new, even in terms of the question. All of these people were in positions under the previous Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valerii Zaluzhnyi. They just held different positions. Some were moved horizontally, some were promoted 1-2 steps up. But these are not new people. They were in the army. I will definitely make a broadcast in the near future, we will talk about the leaders, especially about some of the leaders, about their decisions and, in fact, are there any changes at the front because of the movements? Where have they really taken place, and where are they just imitation, showmanship,rigmarole, for which someone pays with their lives. And someone imitates it as a change. We will definitely talk about this.
How would you comment on Budanov's words: Russia makes a move, then it's our turn? Was he talking about a counter-offensive?
To be honest, I can't comment on General Budanov's daily interviews, because, first of all, he talks all the time. He is constantly on the air, holding press conferences and interviews. He is such a media figure that it is very difficult to even read everything he says. And, unfortunately, many of the things he says are not proven to be true. So I cannot comment on his words. I don't think there is anything behind these promises. I try to comment on facts, some consistent actions and logic. So it's not about Mr. Budanov, I would say it about someone else. Now, in my opinion, it just doesn't make sense. I want to remind you that Mr. Budanov promised that Crimea, the offensive, and then all these promises, these words, this optimism, someone has to fulfill them. I believe that the chief of military intelligence in Ukraine should speak about facts, not be a blogger at the level of such ordinary YouTube experts.
Do you know where the huge defense structures are? On the border with Moldova and Romania. These are the priorities.
Well... what can I say?
Law on mobilization
What to do with mobilization?
I will give my opinion soon. I'm talking to people now, I've been interviewing a lot of people on Facebook, military people. I will write my own. The main thing I said on the air now is: create an electronic record. It is simple. It can be done quickly. Linked to Diia, of course. Every citizen of Ukraine should have an account linked to Diia, where his status, his data, which can be checked, which are necessary to understand his place in the state defense system, are indicated. Or he just sits at home, goes to work, pays taxes - this is also possible. Or he is very useful for the defense in some kind of rear work. Or he is not fit, he should just be treated and receive social assistance. Everything must be taken into account. But there should be a single system. And now we are in the third year of the war, and we have all the power - look at any region. There are medical commissions, military commissariats, regional administrations everywhere - just look at the Internet, how many criminal cases there are for dozens of officials at various levels selling the right not to be drafted or to go abroad, to leave Ukraine in violation of the presidential decree. Dozens of criminal cases.
I would like to remind you that even a people's deputy, a Servant of the People, a woman has been detained and is now facing a criminal case for selling the right to leave Ukraine. NABU is detained. What can I say? And why is this? There is no unified accounting system. Each official sells on his own. They sell to themselves. This Servant of the People was selling a certificate from a public organization that allowed her to travel abroad for $3,000. How can this be? If there was a link to Diia, how would this person leave? No way. No deputy would have influenced him, no doctor would have influenced him. It would have been impossible. In Diia, everything is written in full, and everyone can see everything in the records. But here, there is nothing like that. Steal, do whatever you want. And someone has to fight. This injustice needs to be corrected. This is a basic illogic, unjustifiability for the state. We need universal electronic registration for all citizens of Ukraine immediately. First of all, for men. Then there will be some logic in all further actions and draft laws - who should be mobilized, and how. Then there will be logic in determining the categories, how many people are needed, where to recruit them, and for what positions. All this can be done electronically and easily.
In your opinion, will the Russian army be able to capture the towns of Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk districts of the Donetsk region
If we do not act systematically, it will. If we act systematically, it will not. I have to say the following. War is a very pragmatic technological process; it does not depend solely on the morale and intelligence of an individual soldier in a single position. War is a struggle between two systems. The quality of the systems may be different. But the system must be scalable and must change rapidly. War and human evolution are of the same nature. The winner is not the one with the bigger biceps, the one with the longer stick, the one who runs faster in war, and in evolution, the one who adapts to threats and challenges faster always wins. This is the main thing. The one who adapts faster, Ukraine or Russia, will win, hold Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk, and possibly even advance. We didn't attack because we had something here, because we were the only ones doing well. We adapted faster. Our civil society, the people, self-mobilized and took the initiative in the use of drones, the use of various means related to control systems, starlinks. That is, our superiority could be measured in specific things: communication control equipment, drones. The system of using these tools. And what is it now? Now this advantage has disappeared. On the contrary, the enemy has built up a systemic advantage in air and missile strike capabilities and the accuracy of conventional ammunition. And that is why they have moved forward for a reason. The one who acts more systematically, introduces changes, adapts better and wins. This is true everywhere - in war and in life. And now the question for Ukraine is whether we will be able to stay ahead of Russia in systemic organizational measures? Will our Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief realize the need for such changes? Because civil society cannot make systemic changes on a national scale. We cannot substitute the initiative of individuals where the state, leadership and organization of millions should work. This must be realized and demanded from the authorities.
It was written that the F-16s would be delivered in the spring. Now they say that Denmark will deliver six aircraft in July.
Friends, 6 planes or even 20 planes, unfortunately, will not change the strategic situation at the front. Russia has many dozens of aircraft flying missions on a regular basis. The issue is not only the number of planes, but the availability of a large number of munitions. Since the beginning of the year, Russian aviation has used more than 3,500 guided bombs. This has to be considered. Therefore, in order for us to reduce the burden on our artillery by air, so that we can inflict maximum damage on the enemy, we need a much larger number of aircraft. We need a system of their use - radar stations, air defense system to cover the airfields. Lots and lots of systematic work. Therefore, we cannot expect a few planes or 20 planes to appear, friends. We need to be realistic and make systemic changes in many things, without hoping for a panacea.
Production of drones at the expense of the state
Umierov said that UAH 5 billion had been allocated again and that billions had already been allocated for drones in '23. Has the state made any purchases and orders from manufacturers?
Yes, dear friends, there were many statements about drones that drones would be financed for 40 billion. Now it's 5 billion more. So, obviously, the government has a plan for 45 billion, as I understand it. But the reality is this. Yes, the government has paid for a certain number of drones. But this is not all the production capacity we have available. It is worth noting, and this is a positive thing that should really be noted, that since the beginning of January, a certain number of long-range strike drones have been financed by public funds, which have successfully attacked the Russian oil refining industry. This is a very successful strategic operation. I will make a separate broadcast about this. This is a very important topic. And all of this is done at public expense. But the need for other types of drones, the need for fpv, the need for night bombers, the need for reconnaissance aircraft - there is still a need... The need for the same long-range strike drones that attacked oil refineries is far from being satisfied. Unfortunately, the state has not signed contracts for full capacity with our manufacturers. There is a significant amount that has been signed. But it is less than 50% of what we could produce and what we could export and supply to the frontline.
There is still a large number of drones at the front, this tactical reconnaissance is all volunteer work. The military units that assemble drones, believe me, are buying drones, they have no other means of supply. That's why civil society needs to support such fundraising, because the contracts for production under the 24th program for long-range drones - I won't say the exact number, but this is just one of the programs signed in January. And for all other types, fpv, night bombers, octocopters, all other types, all of this started in March, but has not yet been completed. And a significant number of them are obviously not going to get this contract. As soon as we heard about these 45 billion, there were so many manufacturers, all with connections, that some manufacturers who had been producing these drones for many years did not even receive any contracts at all. Yurii Kasyanov, for example. I'm just surprised. I'm not saying that everyone should be given these billions in full. But there is a war going on, and many technical solutions need to be tested in series, and this series needs to be scaled up if the drone works. Because we don't make shells. We are not making enough mines. But we can make drones. Of course, we should focus on this. It's hard for me to explain the logic of the government. To be honest, I see the same chaos here as in other areas of public administration. As long as it was a startup and there were not many people willing to dive their hand into, to bring in their acquaintance, a friend, to give budgets to their familiar company, and as long as all these lines of Servants of the People did not start sitting in the offices making decisions, this is the Minister of Digitalization Fedorov, there was some order and logic. Yes, it was imperfect, there were few funds. But there was order and logic. Now, unfortunately, this order and logic have disappeared altogether. There are chaotic actions here and there, fragmented. I personally hope that the appointment of Vadym Sukhrevskyi, the commander of the drone forces, and the military leadership of General Syrskyi will somehow streamline this process. I faintly hope so. Otherwise, without a system, without logic, it will be difficult to achieve great success here.
Yurii, do you see a way out of the situation in Ukraine? Everything you say is to hold the frontline. But we cannot do this forever. And I don't see any way out.
I see the only way out is that the situation is critical, and I think most people understand that now. People realize that the telethon is just a parallel reality. And there is another one in which we live. And of course, this requires systemic actions from the authorities. If these systemic actions are not taken, we will have other defeats after the big defeat in Avdiivka, after the defeat, we will have other defeats. Heavy ones. With heavy losses. Unless we change the order of our actions. What should we do at the front, what motivates me personally, friends? There are many commanders who clearly understand the nature of modern warfare, the tactics of modern warfare. They understand the importance of drones, the importance of munitions. There are priorities for the consumption of ammunition, under what conditions, when it is better to use shells, mines, how to work with infantry, how to build - there are such people. They may not all be perfect. But I see who we can build a proper systemic modern army from now, how it can deter the enemy. And where there are such people in positions, first of all, commanders, real leaders who have modern military intelligence, who are able to learn and are not ashamed of it, we are making progress. Our battles after the loss of Avdiivka in the Orlivka-Berdychiv area are a success for our troops. The enemy's losses there are many times greater than ours. all this was done for a reason. It did not happen by itself. It was specific people who achieved these successes. We can share this experience in the same way. I hope that these severe trials, the heavy losses we have now, the Russian offensive will force the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the General Staff of Ukraine to start thinking realistically, based on the situation. And to save the front not with another video, a photo shoot in some place or an order to hold on or go forward. But with intelligent solutions. We have to be different from the enemy to gain an advantage over them. The only difference we can make is the speed of change in implementing systemic solutions. We can do it with intelligent management and organizational solutions. We have the people to implement these decisions. We have the intelligence, commanders, and leaders, but we need to change this logic of action, which is futile. If it does not work, it needs to be changed. If a person is unable to learn, he or she must be changed. Changes in the military leadership, unfortunately, are lipstick. They are not systemic. They do not lead to systemic change. And they cannot. Because it is not only the leadership in the army that needs to be changed, but also the tasking of the military. Criteria for evaluating military leaders. Criteria for assessing the situation. How? It is only by influence. That's why I do these broadcasts, that's why I'm pleased and honored that a significant number of our leaders are watching them. I hope that there will be a critical point when they start thinking and doing something. You see, for 2 years I have been making many broadcasts, dozens of them, and writing about defense structures. You see, somehow there is a result. The president did take responsibility. He could have done nothing at all, as he had never done before. But he did. That is, this is not my personal influence, of course, friends, but the influence of public opinion. That's what I'm talking about.
Thank you all. I really believe in our Victory today more than ever because I see how this Victory can be achieved. I see Ukrainian soldiers who are bringing this Victory closer and doing everything to destroy and defeat the enemy. I communicate with them every day. And despite all the hardships, despite all the problems in our government, in our country, this is the fire that leads us all forward. Therefore, I am very grateful to everyone who did not see this broadcast, because they are in the field. They don't have the Internet. But they are the thin blue line that keeps us all safe and protects the freedom of Ukraine.
Glory to Ukraine!
