Why Danilov was fired, who is Lytvynenko, and why Budanov has become stronger
On 26 March, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy dismissed National Security Council Secretary Oleksii Danilov and appointed Oleksandr Lytvynenko, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, to replace him. Interestingly, Danilov had been the longest-serving secretary of the NSDC, surpassing even Oleksandr Turchynov. Although, unlike Turchynov, Danilov can hardly be called an autonomous player in Ukrainian politics, able to reconcile the various towers in the president’s environment and influence personnel decisions.
Turchynov actually broke the tradition of the NSDC no longer being a place of exile or premature retirement for politicians, but things have changed a lot since then.
How will Danilov be remembered for his time at the NSDC?
-The fact that at the height of the coronavirus in 2020, the Secretary of the National Security Council recommended that Ukrainians improve their health with garlic and onions.
-That the NSDC was supposed to keep a register of oligarchs, but despite the fact that in 2022 Danilov spoke about 86 potential candidates, not a single person was included in the register. But money was spent on it.
-The one who until recently denied the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion. "According to our intelligence and the intelligence of our partners, destabilisation inside the country is situation No. 1. Without internal destabilisation, they (Russia - ed.) will not be able to cause any trouble for our country," Danilov said in February 2022.
-He was the first to say that there were five attempts to kill Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and that the president was wearing a white shirt at the meeting on 24 February.
"Volodymyr Oleksandrovych was wearing a white shirt, and I remember it so well, you know... He said: "Well, let's fight," Danilov said, recalling the meeting on the morning of 24 February.
-Political opponents blame Danilov for the cuts in the missile programme, although the former NSDC secretary has always denied this and said that the missile programme and "Luch" KB tests did not stop for a day.
And the last cherry on the cake was allegedly the former NSDC Secretary's remarks about Li Hui, the Chinese government's representative for Eurasia.
Censor.NET's interlocutors in the Office of the President and the Verkhovna Rada called the decision to dismiss the NSDC Secretary "long overdue".
"Everyone has been snorting at him for a long time," said a Rada source.
"I think that Andrii Lytvynenko will be more comfortable with Andrii Borysovych. In particular, in the matter of statements," another source added.
In the end, Danilov's dismissal is somewhat reminiscent of a similar decision regarding the president's representative in the Rada, Fedir Venislavsky.
The only official version of Danilov's dismissal has so far been given by the adviser to the head of the OP, Mykhailo Podoliak.
"I would not advise looking for conspiracy here. There are three components. First, the president said that certain government agencies are being rebooted. They need to be optimised for the stage of the war we are at. The second component, which the president also mentioned, is that Mr Danilov remains in the team and will work in a different direction," he told NV.
"And the third component. I see the reappointment of Mr Lytvynenko as a strengthening of the analytical component, because we are in stagnation and we need to work out scenarios of what we need to do - in terms of the war as such, the resource support for the war and the information component in this war to increase understanding among our partners. Stagnation is precisely the rise in the cost of war," Podolyak said.
If we take the appointment of Oleksandr Lytvynenko as a sign that the NSDC will now become a mere analytical office, then this is a perfect decision.
Unlike Danilov, Lytvynenko will not be a media speaker - he is not a fan of publicity.
In addition, it seems that long before Zelenskyy came to power, Lytvynenko knew the Yermak brothers. At least with one of them.
In response to a request from RBC-Ukraine, the NSDC said that Denys Yermak was appointed to this position by order of NSDC Secretary Oleksandr Turchynov on 17 March 2015 and dismissed by order of Oleksandr Danyliuk on 15 August 2019.
Lytvynenko graduated from the Institute of Cryptography in Moscow in 1994, then from the Shevchenko University in Kyiv, and in 2013 from the Royal College of Defence Science (RCDS) in the UK. He worked at the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Institute for Strategic Studies, the Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine (where he was brought by Turchynov), and on 23 July 2021 was appointed head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SFI).
In his column on the Interfax-Ukraine website, Lytvynenko assessed Russia's threats to Ukraine as adequately as possible.
"Putin believes that by failing to defeat Ukraine in three days in a large-scale war, the Kremlin has passed the point of no return in its relations with the West. There is no turning back, Putin can only win triumphantly or lose crushingly.
He is convinced that the return of Ukraine and the rest of the "historical Russian lands" and the restoration of the empire can only be achieved through a global redistribution of the world. Such a redistribution could take 10-15 years, be accompanied by conflicts of varying scale and intensity, possibly with the use of nuclear weapons. Moreover, the war against Ukraine is currently perceived by the Kremlin as an important, but not the only front for Russia, which is actually waging a world war with the United States and the West as a whole," Lytvynenko said.
In his opinion, Putin's main tasks in the coming years will be:
-Creation of an anti-Western coalition;
-Transitioning Russia's economy to a military-oriented economy, which is already underway.
-Preparation for future aggression against other countries.
- Fanning conflicts in the Middle East, Africa and the Balkans.
Lytvynenko also predicted that Putin will try to conquer as much land in Ukraine as he can, because for him it is the return of historical "justice".
In principle, if the new NSDC secretary assembles a team that can describe Ukraine's future tactics and strategies in the war as productively as he did, this replacement can be considered a success. Provided that Lytvynenko's opinion is accepted by Bankova Street.
"In principle, all of Danilov's dismissals were taken quite calmly, because he did not do anything important. Remember how he got to this position - back then, it was necessary to quickly replace Danilyuk, who began to lose his way on Bankova Street. And that's when Danilov came into view. No use, no harm. He went around giving interviews until he started saying too much and more and more people began to dislike him. Especially after his remarks about China," the source said.
"Despite the fact that I have known Danilov for 100 years, I think Lytvynenko has a better chance of doing something effective with the NSDC," said one of the MPs.
According to the publication's interlocutors, one of the challenges for Lytvynenko, for example, should be the preparation of the Headquarters meetings, which are currently not prepared by anyone, as the activities of this body are prescribed by bylaws.
However, it is much more interesting what will happen to the Foreign Intelligence Service. On Tuesday, it was headed by Oleh Ivashchenko, from DIU.
In 2017-2019, Ivashchenko was the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for Intelligence, and in 2021 - the First Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine.
In a commentary to Liga.Net, Solomiya Bobrovska, an MP from the "Voice" party, described Ivashchenko's appointment as a strengthening of Budanov.
It should be noted here that the SFI, due to its non-public nature, is in many ways like Schrödinger's cat - it is difficult to assess whether this structure is effective or not. And one of the reasons is that long before Lytvynenko came to office and Zelenskyy's presidency, the authorities did not understand the purpose of this service. This means that they did not invest in it as an effective mechanism.
"When Lytvynenko came to the SFI, he offered to reduce the staff, but to give him the specialists and means he lacked. The authorities said it was not the right time. But with the beginning of the full-scale invasion, most of the people, funds and equipment were taken away from the SFI and transferred to the DIU," the source said.
At the same time, the current head of the DIU, Kyrylo Budanov, according to the publication's sources, was not against the merger of the DIU and the SFI.
"At some point in 2022, a draft law appeared in the Rada... and of course, it could only have been brought by Bezuhla..., which outlined the concept of absorption of SFI by DIU. It also proposed to take the DIU out of the Ministry of Defence's jurisdiction and make it accountable only to the president. But it didn't take off, the bill was put on the back burner," the source said.
"Then Kyrylo Oleksiyovych offered his people to the SFI for several times, and on Tuesday a representative of the DIU finally appeared there," the source added.
Tetiana Nikolaienko, Censor. NET
