Russia is planning new offensive
The stream is dedicated to the events currently taking place in the war.
ZELENSKYY ON THE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE
First of all. We are going to look at the statement that President Zelenskyy made. It speaks of an inevitable Russian offensive in the near future, which, according to the president, will begin in May. So, not the barbecues of this year, or last year, or the year before, but still a war. And a powerful Russian offensive, which was announced by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. The statement is serious, let's listen.
(Zelenskyy): Today, the situation in the East has been stabilized as far as possible. And given the fact that there is a shortage of appropriate weapons and ammunition, and given the fact that we are beginning to prepare brigades for the relevant actions that are important to us, we have stabilized the situation. It is better than 2-3 months ago. But it is important that we share all the information with our partners and say that Russia will be preparing counteroffensive actions. It may be the end of May, it may be June. And we have to not only prepare for this, not only stabilize. Because our partners are sometimes very happy that we have stabilized, they keep their fingers crossed for us, as they say, and say: okay, you have the strength. No, we say, we need help now. Now, to prepare the appropriate brigades that will have to fight for our land, especially during the period of counteroffensive actions that Russia wants to start.
(end of video)
So, the video is not complete here. There was actually more said there. More was said that these offensives will be carried out in the spring or summer. That is, according to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine, there will actually be a Russian offensive this summer. So, let's first look at where exactly the Russian offensive might be, what the nature of the enemy's actions might be.
I'd like to start with a brief remark. I am a bit surprised to hear that we have managed to stabilize the situation, that it is better than 2-3 months ago. To be honest, I don't understand what the basis is, we have lost the city of Avdiivka, a very important position. Avdiivka was a very favorable position for defence. Its retention stabilized our front. Now the loss of Avdiivka does not lead to stabilization. The enemy has suffered heavy losses. Of course, his advance is currently suspended. But the Russian positions, their basic conditions for further actions have improved significantly. The control of Avdiivka allows the enemy to develop an offensive on Myrnohrad, Pokrovsk and Selydove. And they are trying to use the breakthroughs, the capture of Marinka and the capture of Avdiivka in this time to bring down our front in a large area and to create a threat now: Marinka, Pokrovsk, Selydove and Vuhledar. So, to be honest, I see no signs of stabilization. I see that Ukrainian soldiers have inflicted heavy losses on the enemy through professional, skillful, heroic efforts. These losses exceed Russia's ability to supply the front line with supplies. That is, several new Russian brigades have been knocked out - the 137th Brigade, the 74th Brigade, the 35th, 55th, 30th, 21st, and 21st Brigades - all the 114th Brigades they sent there, to Avdiivka. That is, there are large forces there. All of it has been destroyed by Ukrainian soldiers. But the enemy's positions have improved. Significantly. On a large part of the front. Avdiivka is lost. Marinka is lost. If the Supreme Commander-in-Chief considers this to be the stabilization of the front, I don't know, to be honest. I have a fundamentally different vision.
The first priority is to protect our personnel. What do we need to do for this? We need to improve management, training, and mobilization so that we can properly organize combat work at the front. And because of the lack of mobilization, which Mr. Zelenskyy and the authorities are unable to introduce, we have no stable rhythmic replenishment and rotation of troops, no normal training process that should give a person who comes from scratch, who is mobilized, at least 4 months to get some knowledge in a systematic way. And these are 4 months of intensive training. If there is no intensity, then there should be even more training. So, friends, I would like to hear the president talk about complacency, about stabilization. Unfortunately, we, the leadership, are complacent. The situation is not stable. And the situation is now being levelled out because every day we see videos of our troops being beaten, of Russians being beaten in every section of the frontline. But the enemy is advancing. Unfortunately, these fronts cannot stop the enemy's advance. We need to think about a new Russian offensive, as the president said. Let's see where exactly.
MAPS OF POSSIBLE OFFENSIVE AREAS
So, yes. These are the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions. Unfortunately, there has been no stabilization in the area of, for example, Kostyantynivka, Druzhkivka, Chasiv Yar recently. The enemy has managed to capture the village of Ivanivske and Russian troops are now in the vicinity of Chasiv Yar. Of course, a strike on Chasiv Yar and its capture will allow the enemy to develop an offensive. First of all, they are driving a wedge into our defence and we can see on the map that they are trying to withdraw, to create a threat to Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka in the future. What does this mean about the upcoming offensive? Let's look at the map and see what happens next. The Russians are trying to capture Chasiv Yar for a reason. They want to create a threat to Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk. They need this so that they can try to cut down the salient again during the summer offensive. We have many such salients on the front line. We see on this map, in the north of this map, the city of Siversk. The Russians have been trying to capture it for a very, very long time. Since 22 years ago. All this time there have been attacks. And they are trying their best to capture Siversk. Of course, the advance of the enemy, if they advance further, if they manage to capture Chasiv, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, of course, they will try to threaten Kramatorsk, and during the summer campaign, the enemy will try to cut off this Siversk salient again. For this purpose, the Russians need it, they have a strategic goal - it will be Kramatorsk now. Kramatorsk, this district, is such a large agglomeration.
Next up. The next target of the Russian offensive is near Avdiivka. Now there are battles near Berdychi, Semenivka and Orlivka. The fighting is going on here because the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the 3rd Assault Brigade have been giving such an effective and powerful rebuff to the enemy for a month now, inflicting heavy losses on the Russians. But, of course, we see that the enemy is trying to reach the heights near Hrodivka and threaten another agglomeration, Myrnohrad-Pokrovsk-Selidove. The enemy is trying to collapse our front. In other words, having captured Marinka, they are now trying to launch a further advance. The situation here is also very complicated. Large enemy forces are rushing to attack Berdychi and Semenivka right now. The enemy actually managed to capture Orlivka. Now the next challenge is whether the enemy will be able to hold this line. The situation there is very difficult. Tactically, the enemy's position is more favorable due to the control of Avdiivka. But our soldiers are again suffering losses many times greater than those inflicted on us every day. All this is due to effective management at the brigade level, first and foremost. Here, too, the situation is far from stabilized in this area. The enemy has suffered more losses, but it is possible to hold the front reliably only if an echelon defense is built in these areas. Is there a defense here now? I want to say this: they have started digging. It is really true.
So they started digging at the front. But this is still far from the echeloned defense that we need. This is the beginning of the work. I welcome that these works have begun. This is a little bit of realization of the coming reality. In the third year of the war. And this is good - it's good at least. Next, let's see the next map.
This is the southern direction from Polohy to Marinka, which is a global direction. Why is the enemy trying to advance from Marinka? Novomykhailivka is under attack there. The Russians are trying to advance from Marinka towards Krasnohorivka, Kurakhove and Vuhledar. They are now advancing along this entire front to capture and collapse our defense, they need Vuhledar, they need access to Kurakhove. It is also clear that in this direction, the Russians are trying to cut off the salients, small frontline salients that were formed during our offensive in '23. And these are Staromykhailivka, which is now under active enemy attack, Urozhaine and the Robotyne area. The enemy is trying to recapture all these positions and completely knock out these wedges and salients in their defense.
Next map.
And this is the northern section. We can see Kupiansk and Lyman. It is obvious what the enemy wants to do here. The Russians, as we have said many times before, need to reach the Oskil River. The terrain here is favorable for them. They control the height difference on the front line in their favor. They are trying to push our troops back to the Oskol line. Reaching the Oskol River line will allow the enemy to capture Kupyansk and allow the enemy to come out, cut off our positions in the Serebrianskyi forest and actually knock us out, force us to withdraw from the Serebrianskyi forest as well. Therefore, for the Russians, the direction is primarily Torske, primarily Terny. Terny is where very heavy fighting is going on. For a long time. Capturing the village of Terny for the enemy and advancing to the Oskil River in this direction will allow the enemy to advance, to push this front across this entire width. Of course, the occupiers' advance to Oskil will lead to the fact that we will have to withdraw and it will be practically very difficult to hold Serebrianskyi Forest. And this will threaten the city of Lyman again. It was necessary to build a defense line here much earlier, at these borders. It was not done in time. Now it is necessary to build defense lines beyond Oskol to hold this line securely. Work has begun there. Unfortunately, these works are still far from being enough to say that this powerful defense line will allow us to hold it for a long time.
About the offensive. The president said that there would be an offensive, and Western sources confirmed that there would be an offensive. The article in The Economist. This is one of the Western influential sources. They also say that Russia is preparing a new offensive.
So, what is this offensive now? We see areas of the frontline where the enemy is trying to advance, and the nature of their actions at the strategic level is absolutely clear. I don't think that now - now it's not clear. It's not that I don't think there are any prerequisites for the Russians to be preparing a major offensive in Sumy, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions from the north. From their state border. There is simply no concentration of forces that could carry out such strategic offensive actions. At the moment. But this does not exclude the possibility that in a few months the Russians may go there. What do they need? I think that the first priority for the Russian offensive will be the area of Vovchansk, the area of Kupiansk. They need to bring down our front and knock us out beyond Oskil. Therefore, these actions would be really tied up for the Russians. Offensives on Kharkiv and Sumy can only be limited. They will force the Russians to spend their forces and expand their front. We can see that the Russian command back in '22, at the end of the war, gave up fighting on a wide front line. It is difficult for them. They suffered great losses. On the contrary, it is trying to create a narrower section of the main front, which is more than 800 kilometers of active combat zone, to create the maximum advantage in forces there.
This advantage in strength is based on two factors. First. The Russian Federation has established a steady supply of replenishment to the front. They also lack people. They also lack infantry. They do not have enough attack aircraft. They have much higher losses. But these losses are planned. Because they have a plan of replenishment, which they are fulfilling to some extent. On the directions of the main attacks, you can clearly see that they are echeloning assault brigades deeply and they have authorized loss allowance, how much infantry we can spend per day. For example, a platoon. If there are no active operations, they accumulate, minus a platoon, if there are assault operations, minus a company. And they plan. That is, they do not throw all the troops forward at once. They plan for losses and try to push through them in certain areas. That is the planned use of human resources. And the second factor that works for the Russians is the planned use of munitions. It should be noted that the enemy here also acts in a planned manner. That is, they have a plan for how much ammunition they receive, aircraft, artillery, mortar shells, drones. And they plan their actions in terms of means of destruction in many areas. It should be noted that Russia is now increasing the number of personnel in its military-industrial complex - at least... by several hundred thousand. This is absolutely comparable to the number of people that the Russians constantly mobilize into the army. That is, they mobilize people not only in the infantry, in assault troops. They are mobilizing people for industry. They are creating conditions to create additional jobs there. So what will the new offensive be like?
I do not think that this new offensive, as we now say, will come out of nowhere, a couple of armies will appear and attack Kharkiv and Kyiv again. There are no prerequisites for this now. Or on Sumy. The main thing for us is that the enemy is constantly putting pressure on our positions in areas that are operationally favorable for him. And he does not reduce this pressure. That is, he is fighting battles of attrition, who has more reserves. But in those areas where he dictates the tactical initiative to us and where he has an advantage. An advantage because of the terrain, for example. And where he needs to significantly improve the operational situation. But what they are increasing much more broadly is the number of weapons. The war of '24 is different in that Russia is massively using and increasing the number of adjusted bombs, increasing the number of drones, and increasing the number of artillery munitions. These are new factors. If artillery ammunition is not so noticeable, because in '22 there was many times more than now. But the use of massive drones, massive use of air bombs and precise adjustment of all means of destruction - this is a new factor that is of great concern at the front. And the offensive is not only possible... that is, for the Russians now - they are in no hurry to mobilize infantry. Because their infantry mobilization immediately leads to a multiplication of losses. We have nothing to arm such an armada of infantry. We see that their defense industry is not keeping up with the production of armored vehicles. They do not have time to restore their losses. That's why they are using anything in the battle, MTLs, golf carts, buggies, anything they want to throw into the battle. Not even armored vehicles. But this is all a planned expenditure of manpower. For them, people are expendable. But what will allow the enemy to advance is a superiority in munitions. And it's not just bombs. These are drones. In most parts of the front, the Russian command is not inferior to us in drones. Even in the number of drones. In some parts of the frontline, it prevails in the number of drones. And I mean drones of all types. And the enemy's advantage in long-range drones, such as supercams first of all, has a very serious impact on our ability to organize fire, because the enemy is increasing the number of long-range reconnaissance patrols. And he combines these long-range reconnaissance patrols with long-range weapons. First of all, with long-range systems such as Tornado-S, i.e. long-range multiple launch rocket systems of 300 mm caliber, for which the Russians are now producing a whole line of new ammunition. And with air strikes and ballistic cruise missile strikes. We see now that the production of Russian ballistic missiles is increasing. The production of corrected bombs is increasing. They are now launching new 3,000 kg bombs. That is, these are large investments by the enemy, the Russians, and they are not just, as we often imagine, in the number of infantry, because we see videos of infantry and equipment being hit. Now they are rapidly, dramatically increasing the number of munitions. This is the main challenge. That is why, in my opinion, the nature of the fighting will not be some sudden attacks by tank armies from various new directions. No. The enemy will continue but will increase the pace of advance in Donbas. Donbas will remain the main battlefield. Donbas and the Kharkiv region will be the main battlefield. And the main focus of the enemy's efforts. First of all, the enemy is interested in Donbas now. They want to force Ukraine to take Donbas by force of arms. We understand the political significance of this event. And now we realize that in 2024, the enemy will not only not reduce its advantage in weapons. He will increase it. The promises that our Western allies give us, the increase in production that is taking place in NATO countries, unfortunately, is far behind the pace - so far - of what Russia is producing. Unfortunately, so far we have no mobilization in the defense industry. Our defense industry management is at a primitive level in general. I'm not even talking about the army. And there is no mobilization in the industry at all. The industry works and survives as best it can. There is no state planning for these actions. It's just ridiculous to talk about launching shells. We have not built - the full-scale invasion has been going on for three years now - the gunpowder production we need. There are complicated issues and there are serious problems and limitations with the bombers. Gunpowder. There are serious problems that should have been solved long ago. They should be in the process of being solved. Because we are inferior to the enemy. It should also be noted that not only the Russians can play the game of using adjusted bombs. Let's look at this UMPK, the guided gliding and correction module of Russian bombs, which they put on old Soviet bombs. This is a completely simple design. The Ukrainian industry can do this as well. If someone gave it an order. If someone controlled industrial development in this regard. There are a huge number of old Soviet bombs in the world. And not only Soviet ones. There are American bombs of various types. We have an air force. Soon we will receive, this year, F-16s, fighters. We can get other types of aircraft. We need means of destruction. So that we can launch much more bombs. And the assignment level - look at the Russian program they are doing. It works effectively. We can produce the same modules for our bombs ourselves. We can equip our bombs, old stocks of Soviet bombs. Someone has to do this. Who will do it for us?
I also want to draw attention to the problem of drones. According to people who are involved in this, our industry can produce not one or two million drones, but even more drones. But again, we need planning. We heard the Ministry of Strategic Industries say that 200 thousand fpv drones were produced in January-February. This is very good. At the frontline, in January, February and even March, the state did not supply the announced million of 100,000 fpv drones. I can tell you this for sure and you can check it in any brigade. If they were sent to the front in such industrial quantities, most brigades - the majority - each brigade would have received more than a thousand drones. This would be a significant event on the frontline. And where are these fpv drones? There are none. Some are being supplied, but in much smaller numbers.
What else is important to note? The enemy is trying to produce even more fpv drones without any loud words about a million drones. I want to note that this week I received images of new Russian fpv drones from several frontline areas. They are made of aluminum. Just by stamping and casting. They can pour these bodies. Yes, they are heavier in weight, heavier than carbon fiber, heavier than plastic. This is understandable. But this is an opportunity to use mass production. To increase the quantity. Where are our aluminum drones? So the enemy, who already has an advantage, is thinking about how to modernize the industry, how to increase the production of munitions. And he is looking for new ways. It is loading up the factories. And where is our planning? It's just a real concern. You see, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief Volodymyr Zelenskyy is very active in making fair comments every day, constantly storming our Western partners: give us weapons. This is very good. And it needs to be done. But this is the responsibility of Western leaders, NATO leaders, and Supreme Commander-in-Chief Zelenskyy himself is also responsible for production in Ukraine, for mobilizing our production facilities, for mobilizing people, training these people, the lives of these people. Because the Defense Forces are subordinates of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief. All this must be done. Unfortunately, we see that the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief is simply delaying, criminally delaying the necessary decisions. So far, most of the drones at the front are volunteer drones, something that people buy. You took money from local governments, so please, at least give it to the brigades. The brigades would place orders themselves. They would load the industry. If you give a brigade 30-40 million a month, a brigade commander, he will buy himself with this money - for 40 million he will buy himself a significant number of drones that will be able to cover a significant number of ... if you give 100 million, then in principle, they will buy electronic warfare, drones, and everything you want. And private enterprises will be loaded, they will buy abroad, importers will buy at the lowest prices. Because everything that the brigades themselves buy is bought at very low prices. These are the best conditions. Anything that the state starts importing, it's just not clear where it is. Why did you centralize the process, I ask the government, if you are not able to implement it? What is the point? To just keep all the money and distribute it to some right people? This is a war. Not some kind of corruption feeding trough, as you are probably used to. These things are really shocking - the complete disconnect of the authorities from reality. It seems that the war has been left to its own fate and you have to deal with it. I do not understand this. I can't take it calmly when the country's leadership shows such indifference. It's just shocking, really.
Dear friends, we will now move on to answering your questions. We will do this as quickly as possible. Thank you very much for your support. There are some very energetic questions here. They are very good. We're going to be, as they say, more sharper on all of this.
ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS
- Should Ukraine have extended the already long front line by intensifying fighting in the border area?
In general, the whole idea. If, in principle... the President, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief approves all this, all military actions are approved by the Headquarters, as you understand. This is not rogue actions by generals. We have talked many times on air about how ridiculous it looks when Zelenskyy tries to blame all the problems on Zaluzhnyi, as if he had nothing to do with it and does not know what is happening. In fact, this is not true. Of course, the expenditure of resources, all of this is approved at the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Headquarters. If this decision has been made, perhaps there are some political goals that we cannot know and that need to be fulfilled. If such an order is given, of course, it must be fulfilled. The only thing I don't understand is why these actions should be directed... I always have questions not even about the goals. I always have questions about execution. Because if there is proper planning of operations, then the expediency of certain operations based on this planning immediately becomes obvious. Should we make a change, or should we, first of all, give some army-wide operations to the Main Intelligence Directorate? This is not an army-wide structure. Why would they be in charge of combined combat assault and offensive operations over a large area? Obviously, it should have been handed over to the command of the Armed Forces. In my opinion, these are the operations. And these attempts to constantly carry out some operations so that the DIU can report and give comments - I honestly do not understand this. It doesn't make sense to me. There is no such thing in military practice, when the army is run by a constantly fragmented command, no one does this. If we are talking about proper planning and experience in military art. In addition, I want to tell you that I have questions about these actions on the border, and they are solely reduced to the fact that the leadership of this operation failed to ensure surprise. A day before the start of active operations, the enemy posted full information on its telegram channels about what was planned. He posted videos of several units of our equipment that Russian intelligence had found in the area. Of course, there were a lot of air strikes and artillery shelling. In fact, the operation, which was declared as a sudden action, did not have the key factor from the very beginning - surprise. From a military point of view, this is just strange to see. I have a question about this. Why take actions aimed at surprise in the absence of it? That's what I don't understand. And there are other things. We don't have full information yet.
DISMISSAL OF THE NSDC CHAIRMAN
What is your attitude to the new head of the National Security and Defense Council and why is this change needed?
The National Security and Defense Council under Volodymyr Zelenskyy has never been any kind of effective structure at all. At first, Oleksandr Danyliuk was put there. Then, when Danyliuk was suddenly removed and Oleksiy Danilov was appointed, this structure never fulfilled the tasks required of a key body under the president, which prepares, analyzes, and studies strategic decisions. Why was this not the case? According to the Constitution, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council is generally one of the highest officials in the state after the president, the head of government, the head of the Verkhovna Rada, and then the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, which is an important position. This is a person who, by virtue of his or her position, has to control and monitor everything that happens in the field of national security and defense. But we have such a phenomenon as the head of the Presidential Office, Andrii Yermak. At first, it was Andrii Bohdan. Then it was Andrii Yermak. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gave his Office heads all the powers of power administration, security, defense, foreign policy, domestic policy, and appointments in law enforcement agencies. In such a structure, the position of the Head of the Office is very convenient for such decision-makers as Bohdan and Yermak. Why is it convenient? The fact that you are not responsible for anything and control everything. Zelenskyy is responsible for everything, and you just take it, appoint it, and make calls on his behalf. That's why Zelenskyy completely nullified the NSDC's value completely. Yermak, of course, did not like this position very much. Because there were people there whom he did not control. First Danyliuk, and then Danilov. And he always tried to simply nullify this position, so that it had no influence on anything at all and had no significance. In fact, Oleksii Danilov has recently signed the decisions prepared by Yermak: sanctions against some people, and so on. It was technical work. So, of course, what's the point... Yermak had an opportunity, he brought in some offensive things about Danilov, found some opportunity, brought in some information to Zelenskyy, and that's it. And he waited for the moment when Zelenskyy was emotional and Danilov was dismissed. Dismissed, so dismissed. Now a person has been appointed, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, who, of course, has nothing to do with any public policy or anything else. He was already First Deputy Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council under Oleksandr Turchynov and Petro Poroshenko. So, in principle, he knows all the work in the National Security and Defense Council, he knows the functionality. Well, Zelenskyy and Yermak decided that this person... Yermak decided that he would not compete with him. Lytvynenko is indeed a person who is absolutely conflict-free, who will not get involved in anything, will not defend his position anywhere if it goes against Yermak. He is the kind of person who will keep the paperwork in order. For Yermak, this is an acceptable option. And Zelenskyy is not interested in it anyway. He has already said that he runs the country with the help of 5-6 managers. He has managers. Someone has to do the paperwork, as I understand it.
Could this be a political statement about the offensive? After all, he says this to foreign journalists, not in an address.
In fact, most of the time Volodymyr Zelenskyy talks to foreign journalists. He talks to Ukrainian journalists once or twice a year. This is done simply as a ritual. Because Zelenskyy is deliberately building a conflictual relationship with the Ukrainian media and civil society so that any criticism expressed in the Ukrainian media can be completely countered and said to be some kind of personal relationship, an order from the oligarchs. That's why the president is pursuing a policy of distrusting Ukrainian journalists, and the main thing is that he has been trying to communicate only with the foreign press. So this is his style. He never talks about problems in his addresses. Look, almost all of his addresses are extremely soothing. We remember the barbecues in May. Those barbecues are still going on. Some problems are stated when they have already happened. We see that even now, in fact, this interview, as given, is very soothing and does not correspond to the situation at the front and the war in general.
Yurii, will boys under 25 be drafted?
I don't know. Because the draft law on mobilization has not been signed and adopted by the Servant of the People and Zelenskyy. Nobody knows. In Zelenskyy's imagination, people from the TCR who grab someone on the street should be responsible for mobilization. This is the right mobilization in the imagination of our government. Why do Zelenskyy and the Servants of the People like it? Because all the negativity in society falls on the military of the TCR. Not on the Servants of the People, not on Zelenskyy. Therefore, such a mess and chaos is beneficial to Zelenskyy himself, to the government, which is deliberately destroying mobilization. So who knows? Zelenskyy said that they would draft from the age of 25. This is not an accepted norm. It has not come into effect. Do you know what such cowardice and irresponsibility will lead to? The staff and volunteer fighters who came back in 22-23 will be exhausted, and there will be new falls, new losses of cities. And the president will no longer be able to continue to lie that there is stabilization at the front, as he said now. The loss of Marinka and Avdiivka - this is stabilization in Zelenskyy's mind. Strange as it may seem. Therefore, there will be more losses of cities. Then it will be impossible to lie. And then, when it will be impossible to lie, Zelenskyy will say: you know, it's not me who wants mobilization, it's some Western politicians who want it, that's what they demand from us. Well, I'm sorry, we have no one to hold the front, we will immediately mobilize... I don't know from what age. And these people will be called up in a fast-track manner, they will not be able to receive any training or organization. This is a great threat. Therefore, dear friends, unfortunately, the government does not systematically solve this problem. The problem of war. And mobilization is really properly organized, clear - it is needed. It is necessary. But it must be fair, not like it is now - those who were caught, who did not talk way out of, did not give money, were bagged somewhere in a public place by bad military officers of the TCR. But the TCR should not be chasing people. They shouldn't. This is not the way to do it. This is savagery. There should be a planned mobilization. People should receive and see who is subject to mobilization: the first, second, third, twentieth categories. This one. And these have the right to deferment. And these will not be drafted in any case. And these have reservations because they have to work in such and such and such industries. This should work. Industry, defense services, strategic infrastructure facilities. And we need these people in the war. They have to arrive at such and such a time, receive such and such training, and be properly employed. Then there will be logic. And all this logic is not there now. That's why you're asking if there will be any by the age of 25. Who knows? The Supreme Commander-in-Chief is not able to answer this question. Let me remind you that we are already in the third year of a full-scale war, and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief said that he does not agree with the mobilization, as Zaluzhnyi said. We need other figures. What are the numbers? Zaluzhnyi was replaced. Now it's Syrskyi. So what are the numbers? What do you need for mobilization, Volodymyr Oleksandrovych? When will you say it? At what press conference? Or should we wait until December 24, because you hold press conferences once a year? All these obvious questions are being asked at war. There is no answer, because Zelenskyy goes to the front to do a photo shoot, ask how things are, present a few orders, and then leave quickly in an hour. And he doesn't answer any questions. This is the biggest problem of the authorities. And because of this irresponsibility and incompetence, everything goes wrong, this wave of irresponsibility and mediocrity. And who suffers in the end? Not those people, not the Servants of the People in the Office of the Verkhovna Rada, but the soldiers who hold the front in the trenches. They suffer. They lose their lives and they shed blood. Unfortunately, the authorities ignore all this. We must finally tell the truth about this. How is it possible? The law on mobilization of Ukraine, the Constitution requires the president to adopt a law on mobilization. This is a direct norm. It is written directly there. Everyone knows this. There is no law. Who should carry out the mobilization? Those guys in the buses from the TCR. Well, this is absurd. It's completely absurd. The authorities treat this normally. It's not a big deal. Where is the defense committee? It's an empty place, zero. They are sitting there, scared. Why do you even get paid? Imitators! Where is the Cabinet of Ministers? Where is Defense Minister Umierov? Zero. They are sitting in silence: for all the good against all the bad. This is just absurd. Where is at least one person responsible? To be honest, I am speechless when I talk about mobilization, it is absurd. We will be doing another program about this soon. Somehow they need to be pushed. This kind of slow thinking in the President's Office is simply a threat to national security.
Yurii, what happened to such systems as Stuhna and Leleka? We seemed to be producing all of this.
They are being produced. They are not being produced in the volumes we need, but they are being produced, of course. They are sent to the front. It's just that the enemy is scaling up production on a much larger scale. That's why we can't transfer them quantitatively now. But they are being produced. There are problems, of course, with production. But production continues. I thank all Ukrainian engineers, employees of the companies that produce Leleka, our other drones, our other Stuhna missile systems. Of course, these are important and necessary powerful weapons. Unfortunately, the production of munitions lags behind the needs of the frontline.
Kazakhstan called on its citizens to leave Kyiv, Odesa and Kharkiv.
Yes, unfortunately, the enemy is increasing the number of missiles, the number of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and will strike at cities. They will also strike at infrastructure. They are now increasing the number of high-precision weapons. I am already urging people to prepare for the next winter, it will be difficult, very difficult. We see how in Kharkiv, Ladyzhyn, Burshtyn, the enemy will strike and destroy energy facilities. To completely destroy Ukraine. They are not hiding it. They did it in the winter of 22-23 and are going to do it now, of course. It will be a war. Russia does not hide its goal: they want to physically destroy Ukraine. They lack the means of destruction. They do not have enough troops. They are gradually trying to solve these problems for themselves. And they are fulfilling them. And they are trying to do it. So the threat here is very serious.
I do not understand why there is still no state order.
This is a complicated topic. Because the government order does exist. It is just not enough for everyone. The government order is constantly changing. New conditions are constantly being set for these drones. Procurement planning is inflexible. It takes a long period of approvals, authorizations, and coordination. Money is first promised. People do something. The money is not paid. So there is a lot of chaos. We just have a problem with planning. And we have government orders. We have government orders for everything. The problem is that not everything is funded and not everything is funded within the timeframe set by the government order. This is the problem. And not everything is purchased that is needed. And some things are bought that, in principle, could not be bought. We have planning problems with this. But there is a government order, and it is being fulfilled to the best of our ability.
ARE NEGOTIATIONS POSSIBLE IN 2024?
Do you think negotiations are possible in 2024?
I have said it many times, and I can repeat it. Any negotiations are possible only if the front line is stabilized. Stabilized not just in words. Because you can say like the president: we have the line, we have stability. Stabilized means that the enemy is attacking, and in front of it is a multi-kilometer line of fortifications, shelters, trenches, trenches, dugouts, and caponiers. All of this is camouflaged, hidden from drones, minefields, dragon's teeth, wire, wires of various types. Everything must be there. If it is there, and there are troops who receive rotation, who are fresh, who rest at certain times, who receive vacations, dismissals when necessary. And these troops have the means of destruction and thus inflict much greater losses on the enemy than he can inflict on us. Then the enemy realizes that further offensive is impossible. Then we can say: there is a basis for negotiations. Why would the enemy stop now? They are increasing their advantage in munitions. They are conducting mobilization activities, and they have more replenishment at the front than we do. They are increasing the production of drones. And they think: so what, we will continue to push like this. Ukrainians cannot stop us. Since you can't stop us, we'll keep going. What is the logic of a political agreement? There is none. There is a force that we cannot stop. Therefore, friends, first of all, a political solution is impossible without a military one. We need to clearly build a line of defense. We need mobilization so that the experienced professional people in the army can pass on their experience, become commanders, and organize the process of managing and administering the war properly. Then we will have rotations. There will be a planned war. There will be reasonable actions, not constant heroism and feats. That's what we have now. The war must be planned. The front is 800 kilometers long. It's not big, really. 800 kilometers, when there have been 3 years of fighting on it, can be long since interrupted, mined, buried, built, organized by construction organizations that will dig for everyone. You can build powerful defense lines there that will be very difficult for the enemy to advance even with bombs. Because a bomb cannot destroy every dugout, every element of a trench. If all of this is covered and drones have a poor view, the enemy can use a large number of munitions in vain. They simply won't know where to strike. We need to implement maneuvers in defense. The advantage in the enemy's means of destruction, if we are not able to produce more, then we need to at least build more to hide from them. And we have the capacity. There are concrete plants. Unfortunately, they are not fully utilized. There are many opportunities to reduce the enemy's firepower. They need to be used. We do not need volunteers for this. Volunteers cannot do it alone. My foundation has purchased 4 reinforced concrete bunkers and handed them over to the 58th Infantry Brigade, which is commanded by a competent commander, Colonel Ruslan Shevchuk. He is making sure that the supply of combat operations is organized. He asks volunteers to send concrete structures and everything else, including drones and electronic warfare devices, because to start combat operations without such fortifications would endanger the personnel. This must be avoided. But this should not be done by the brigadier himself, who has no money and asks for volunteers. This should be done by the state. There should be some kind of planning and standardization of this process. So that volunteers do not do 100% of the work, not 80%, but at least 30-40. Then this is a normal ratio.
Does the enemy have plans for Dnipro and how realistic is it?
Friends, one more time. The enemy has plans to destroy Ukraine. For the Russian Federation, the existence of Ukraine within any borders is unacceptable. The existence of Ukraine, which controls the Dnipro, controls Odesa, Kyiv, Kharkiv, is a great threat to the enemy. They want to destroy any resistance. Therefore, they will go where they can be stopped. And until they are stopped, they will not stop on their own. Someone has to do it by force of arms, first of all. To do this, we need to do the things we are talking about.
Our next broadcast will be devoted entirely to how to defeat the enemy and what measures are needed. We will talk about the logic of war at the strategic level. The logic that we, unfortunately, do not have yet, but which must be developed, and in our democratic country, the only way to force the authorities to change is through public opinion, which must be formed. And it is gradually working. Do you see how much? For two years, there were no systematic actions to purchase drones. Now they have begun. They are not perfect. But they are coming. This was not the case at all. For the first year, the authorities were not interested in drones at all. Then they started a little bit. Now there are already unmanned forces created in the Armed Forces, at least it's a start. Of course, this is not a far-reaching result. This is just the beginning. The same goes for defense structures. For two years I've been saying on the air here: we need defense structures. Hundreds of people wrote to me in comments or made complaints: why are you making this remark to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, he shouldn't be building, he shouldn't, as I demanded, visit the fortifications, look at the progress of the work, and now it turns out, see? The Supreme Commander-in-Chief came and saw how the fortifications in the Sumy region were being built in the third year. Can you see it? Good. So it can still work. It's starting to go in somehow. Work has begun on the defense structures. Only now, unfortunately. And now civilian equipment and civilian specialists are being engaged to do this work. And that's good. It could have been done earlier. It is being done in the third year. It is also not bad. So, unfortunately, it is only because of pressure. Our government responds to pressure.
Thank you for helping to create this pressure. During this broadcast, 24 more people became new sponsors of Butusov+. Thank you, dear friends, for watching the show, for finding my work useful and interesting, and for supporting our ability to tell the truth.
I am sure that Ukraine is powerful and we can really win this war. Thank you for the show and glory to Ukraine!
Yurii Butusov
