Ocheretyne: Russians are preparing offensive on New York and Pokrovsk
Another stream is fully dedicated to the situation at the front. The situation in the war is escalating, and the enemy continues to attack.
First of all, today's topic is the situation in the area of Ocheretyne, where the Russians, unfortunately, managed to push back our defence and capture 4 settlements. Of these, 3 are small settlements and the rather large village of Ocheretyne, and the rather large Arkhanhelske. There are also several small villages such as Novokalynove, Keramik and Soloviove. And the enemy managed to capture Novobakhmutivka. So, unfortunately, the enemy has managed to make significant progress. I suggest you look at the operational map.
MAP OF THE AREA OF THE OCCUPATION TROOPS' OFFENSIVE NEAR OCHERETYNE
As of today, this is what is happening now. We see the breakthrough zone - the enemy launched this offensive on 11 April. As we have already mentioned, the new 115th Mechanised Brigade was deployed in the breakthrough area. It is not new, it has just appeared at the front. It took a long time for the brigade to recover. It had big problems with combat capability. There were big problems with the way this brigade was deployed. This formation required much more attention from the command to commit this brigade to action which was in a not-so-good condition. It had to be committed to action very carefully, very slowly. Unfortunately, due to mistakes, first of all, of the command - this is the military command in this area, of course, this 115th Brigade was deployed very hastily. Unfortunately, it did not have time to organize combat orders, the intelligence system, because the unit was quite... there were problems with it from the very beginning of the war, since not everywhere there was a lack of an organized intelligence management cadre of competent experienced volunteers, officers, and soldiers. There were serious problems. Unfortunately, they became apparent. On April 11, the enemy advanced, as we can see, with very heavy fighting, very slowly, but several kilometres in different directions. Now our defense is being pushed back in this direction. The enemy has captured Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske. These settlements are now providing shelter for Russian infantry. They can hide in basements. Of course, they will develop a further offensive from this bridgehead. Let's look again at the map of the situation, with what forces the enemy is doing this.
On the map, we can see that the enemy has deployed in this direction, according to our intelligence and the data we receive from the prisoners, in Ocheretyne itself, in the direction of Novooleksandrivka, the enemy is trying to attack with the forces of the 55th Motor Rifle Brigade. This is a Mountain Motor Rifle Brigade. That is, we can see it directly towards Novooleksandrivka, to the north. In the direction of Yevhenivka. That is, it is clearly to the west. A unit of the Russian 30th Motorised Rifle Brigade is advancing. And in the direction of Kalynove, that is to the north and this is the direction of the city of New York, the enemy is advancing now. The Russians are advancing in New York. In this area, the enemy has deployed and is conducting assault operations with the forces of the 132nd and 35th Motorised Rifle Brigades. That is, on this small bridgehead, the fact that we see these arrows, there are 4 Russian brigades in full force. There are also a large number of reinforcement units. The Russians are constantly reinforced with reinforcements. They are sending marching reinforcements there. Subunits from different units are constantly being concentrated to reinforce the stormtroopers, as all this whole Russian offensive, these few kilometres and these settlements that the Russians have captured - Soloviove, Novobamutivka, Ocheretyne, Novokalynove, Keramik and Arkhanhelske. In other words, it is 6 settlements. Out of these, Keramik and Novokalynove were completely wiped out. Soloviove, Novobakhmutivka - everything there has been completely destroyed. It's just a pile of garbage because Russian artillery and aviation destroyed these small settlements completely long ago. Arkhanhelske is a larger settlement. And Ocheretyne was a fairly large village. Now it has been captured by the enemy. And now Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske are a base where the enemy can accumulate their infantry. There are enough cellars there. There is a possibility of shelter. The enemy is amassing infantry there and will continue to advance. According to our intelligence, in addition to these 4 brigades and many reinforcement units, the enemy is sending the 228th Motorized Rifle Brigade. This is a new formation of the Russian army, with which they are trying to replenish their combat formations here.
What is happening here now? At the moment, there are no massive attacks by large armored forces or large infantry forces. The enemy is trying to attack in small groups. This is because the Ukrainian defence forces have been quite effective these days, this month, since 11 April, in inflicting very heavy losses on the Russian army. And the Russian infantry has been knocked out very seriously. In this area, of course, the Russians already have a large shortage of assault units. So to continue this offensive... I wouldn't even call it a creeping offensive. The Russians have such a constantly changing offensive. What are they doing now? They see that the front line is unstable and are trying to send small groups of infantry, 2-3 people, subdivisions, every day to probe our defenses and look for weaknesses in our combat formations. What does this lead to? Russia, the Russian infantry, the Russian army, is fighting, continuously conducting armed reconnaissance. This, of course, leads to the fact that this infantry, small groups of infantry, these 2-3 fighters, who are constantly sent everywhere, are defeated, suffer heavy losses. The Russians are knocked out enough. They do not have enough people to continue this offensive. So they are taking people - now they have advanced very much, of course, they have improved their positions, approached, and in some places captured important heights in the area. Now they will plan a further offensive from these heights. The front line is now stabilizing in new positions. Now our troops, who have been deployed to that area, and our reserves are deployed there, are trying to build a new stable front line. We have our artillery in the area and new units. The main problem, what I see there, I was in that area and I can tell you that the main problem is still the problem of command and control of the troops. The problem of organizing combat operations. Not so much a problem of numbers as a problem of adequate assessment of the real situation, assessment of what our troops can do, what our artillery and our drones can do.
We have a big problem with management and reliable reports. Because, unfortunately, the practice of dismissing independent brigadiers who sometimes report critical situations to their superiors leads to the fact that a significant number of battalion-brigade commanders, unfortunately, do not report reliable information. They are afraid to report to their commanders the true situation as soon as a crisis arises. In order not to be fired. Because our war is a bit bureaucratic. There is a huge war but the reporting and responsibility are as if we are in some kind of ATO and we are not fighting against a powerful enemy, but... I don't know against whom. Against some people with sticks, and that's why it's actually very easy to perform tasks, from the point of view of the command. This system does not work here in the Ocheretyne area. The front is being formed up. The enemy is suffering heavy losses because of this constant reconnaissance by combat. But someone has to organize this chaos. This chaos cannot be ordered by reports and orders. The infantry of 2024 is not the infantry of 2022. I would say that our generals are a bit spoiled by the fact that in 2022 people went to perform any task without asking any questions. They put a point on the map, go there, and heroically solve the problem. This was the case in 2022 because the situation was critical. Everyone understood and realized this. At that time, there were a large number of people, hundreds of thousands, who had experience of war and ATO. They were fresh. They were ready to perform tasks. They realized that the command did not have time to do anything. Therefore, they had to decide for themselves. Having experience, they organized command and control and intelligence themselves. They did everything themselves. I think that Ukrainian generals were a little spoiled by this. This is a high-quality heroic infantry of 22 years. And still, our command cannot switch over to the fact that there will be no such infantry. These are experienced personnel. Not just motivated people. They are experienced. They know what war is. They have the strength, energy, and want to correct the deadly critical situation at the front, despite any risk.
Now, of course, there can no longer be infantry. And the Russians have changed their infantry. If in 2022 the Russians had a professional Army fighting, they acted very purposefully, and now there is no such situation at the front. If you look at the Russian infantry, they are ordinary people who, as a rule, have a fairly low level of training. They are outnumbered. They, Russians, have much better intelligence at the tactical level, much better interaction with artillery and aviation. They save armoured vehicles and use them sparingly. However, the Russians do not have an advantage in the quality of their troops. The advantage is that the enemy is smart, aware of its weaknesses and acts purposefully. They understand that they do not have good infantry, and they adapt their management and tactics to their people, to the level they have. Unfortunately, this does not happen in Ukraine. The tasks are set in the old-fashioned way: to hold on, to stand to the death. But why would you do that? The situation does not dictate this. The situation requires systematic action. And you need to understand who you are giving such orders to. The situation with the 115th Brigade and some other brigades. The 61st Brigade, which used to be near Avdiivka. Obviously, an incorrect assessment of the situation is the responsibility of whom? Not the soldiers. This is the responsibility of the military command. The highest. From the level of general. If a brigade is sent to the front, tasks are given, short deadlines are set for reaching the positions - who is responsible for this? The one who gave the order is responsible. It was someone who checked the combat training. There are deputy commanders for combat training in all the Operational-Tactical Groups (OTGs) in Operational Commands (OCs). There are generals in charge. Nevertheless, I would say that the main problem there is that brigades are constantly being put, formed in one echelon.
THE MAIN PROBLEM IS THE OVERESTIMATION OF OUR OWN TROOPS
Constantly, without taking into account the intensity of the fighting and the tasks facing the brigades. Unfortunately, this underestimation, overestimation of our own troops, which is completely unreasonable, detached from reality, and underestimation of the enemy, greatly hinders the performance of tasks. And so, if you look at the combat manpower, it seems that we have the people. Of course, there are not enough of them, and there will always be not enough of them in such an infantry war. But the artillery seems to be there, and the shells are there, and the drones are there. what is missing? There are no normal defensive positions.
DEFENSIVE POSITIONS
It's important to note that after all this talk about there being no defensive positions near Ocheretyne, I'm not posting the video now, but a little later, the video of the enemy. They are filming our positions that our engineering units have dug in the area of Ocheretyne. What is this? These are zigzag trenches dug in an open field. In an open field, friends. Without any sheds. There are no shelters, no dugouts. These trenches are not covered - not with wood, not even with camouflage netting. There is nothing. There is reporting: we have prepared positions. Apparently, some general signed and reported. But in reality, these are positions. Our troops did not occupy these trenches in the open field near Ocheretyne. Because they are not suitable for defence in modern warfare. Nobody uses them. They are used only if there is a rear position, someone can stop there. But no one will fight there. Again, they reported that there are fortifications for the show. But in fact, there are none. And now our troops are adopting a defensive position at the heights above Ocheretyne. They are covering the entire area - Novooleksandrivka and others - by deploying and digging in an unequipped open position with shovels. Just imagine. The third year of the full-scale war, since 10 October 23 - how many years is it? - 8 months the battle for Avdiivka has been going on. 8! The assault is continuous. And in 8 months, I'm not even talking about the past 10 years, the past 3 years - in 8 months of the battle for Avdiivka, there is no second or third line of defence. We talk about it on the broadcasts, we talk about it. The President holds a meeting there, makes statements, and gives orders. But nothing is being done. That is, the president speaks and does not control what he says. There is no responsibility. Everything is done for show. These engineering fortifications are for show. Unfortunately.
Now our troops are forced to set up a defence line in an empty place. It's just that... I don't know when... what needs to be done so that Volodymyr Zelenskyy, military leaders at all levels, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief's Office start doing and controlling at least one adequate defence line. At least there should be something, 5-10 km behind our positions, behind the front line - at least one line. How long will this go on for? It's a bloody farce with these fortifications. There is talk, money is allocated. But there is no action.
The situation is the same with intelligence. In the area of Ocheretyne, friends, there is a large number of units, as we always do. What is the result? Everyone is interfering with each other's flights. Everyone is confusing frequencies and control circuits. There are big problems with determining where ours are and where ours are not in the forefront. The use of firepower suffers because of this. Isn't it clear that we need to develop some kind of centralized fire control intelligence system? This is not my know-how. The whole army is talking about it. This is the third year of the war. And it seems that we are constantly starting something - and it's as if we are on February 22nd. Everyone starts thinking and talking from scratch. Everyone is being thrown into a breakthrough. What breakthrough? Dear friends, if you look at the map, Ocheretyno - the enemy reached Ocheretyno in a week, so you understand. It's a few kilometres away. That is, they were crawling at a pace, this breakthrough was... they were crawling through the plantations at a pace of 500 metres a day. One day, they say, they moved a kilometre or a kilometre and a half, and then they were standing there again, crawling. It came as a surprise, this breakthrough, only because there were no timely reports. They are afraid to report the situation at all levels.
WHY WAS THE 47TH BRIGADE'S COMMANDER RIUMSHYN DISMISSED?
Why are they afraid? Riumshin, the commander of the 47th Brigade, reported the accurate situation, and what did they do? In March, he was dismissed from his post. They are grateful for the accurate information and the fact that the man does not lie. The military high command thanked him. Now the next brigade commanders do not make such a mistake. Everyone says the situation is tense, controlled, don't worry. I don't know, I hope Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, will walk away with a conclusion from this story. This is not acceptable. This is such a negative selection in the army - promoting people for lying, for keeping silent and not reporting the situation in time. And vice versa. Those who report accurately should be removed from the front and punished. Because they are dangerous, they create problems. So much for no problems. The reports were good. And then suddenly - bang! And the enemy entered Ocheretyne on foot.
HOW DID YOU CAPTURE OCHERETYNE AND ARCHANHELSKE?
Friends, I have seen the video of the enemy's attack in Ocheretyne. There were no bloody assaults, as you might think. On foot in the daytime, several groups of infantry just crawled in there. Because the defence on the outskirts was not deployed. The enemy just walked in.
The enemy also entered the Arkhanhelsk - I emphasize - in the same way. What can I say? Then, of course, we have units and commanders who still say: we are taking this line. They begin to dig in. There is a sufficient number of our high-quality units in this area that are fighting and showing results. I want to say that we need to draw a conclusion from the history of the 115th Brigade. There are normal soldiers there. They are like everyone else. There are several other brigades with management problems. Soldiers are like everyone else. Soldiers are the same everywhere. The mobilized infantry of 2024 is the same everywhere. But of course, they need their own approach, cohesion, and teamwork. There is a special requirement for commanders, for sergeants, for their combat training before they are used. All this requires a high level of qualification. The lower the qualification of the performers, the lower the qualification of the ordinary soldiers, the higher the qualification of their commanders. There must be requirements. And what is happening here, as usual? We have combat-capable brigades, but they are not being replenished with people. And there is a combat-ineffective brigade but it is replenished, people are kept. Then it is abandoned. It can't fulfill the task it was assigned. It just can't. A miracle doesn't happen. No, they use it, they put it in place, and then they wonder how it really happened. And why? Because we send these teams. There are a lot of inspections. Who sends a team? No one sends a brigade to the frontline just like that. Who sends it? There is a deputy commander for combat training in the operational command under which she is assigned. There is a deputy commander for combat training in the OTG who deploys her to the front. There are deputy commanders for combat training in the Army and Marine Corps commands in all independent commands. Not only do they have them, but they come, these commissions are there all the time, checking, ticking off, saying: yes, it's okay, you're fit. But those who are ticking off are not held accountable. They are not dismissed from their positions. And they send brigades like that. As a result, we see a brigade with a high-quality cadre, experienced, battle-hardened, with competent commanders and sergeants. Give them people, and they will hold their positions well. And there are brigades that do not have such a cadre. But they are still given people. They cannot fulfill the task. And then come the brigades that fulfill the task. Those who can. Those who are capable. As a result, we lose people. We cannot fulfill the task. We lose additional people, additional resources. We lose ammunition. And we cannot fulfill what we need to do. What we need to do.
So, dear friends, what can I say? The situation in the Ocheretyne area requires our maximum efforts. The units that are deployed there need of fundraising. We will make it public in the near future, we need to raise funds for our 110th Mechanised Brigade. We need drones. It's no secret that our government is not supplying reconnaissance Mavic drones to the frontline. That is, our main reconnaissance drones are (inarticulate) levels, despite all the stories about tenders and a million drones and other lies, no one sees this million at the front. The reconnaissance quadcopters are 90%, 95% - that's what I know, maybe the government is providing something somewhere, but you won't notice it near Avdiivka. The brigades near Avdiivka don't have it. The reconnaissance drones are all provided by volunteers, bought by themselves. Not the state at all. So, dear friends, I urge everyone to make this a big priority - Mavic, night, day drones with thermal imaging cameras, fpv drones - these are simply the main means to eliminate the Russian breakthrough and destroy the enemy. Because something has to be done. This is something each of us can do. So I urge everyone to help our soldiers, and we will soon hold a fundraiser for the 110th Brigade. We have already raised funds for the 59th Brigade. Now we are buying them a few night goggles, which we will send to them soon.
HAS THE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE BEGUN?
Answers to questions: The Russian offensive has already begun. Can we expect it to intensify?
Yes. It may intensify. Now the Russian offensive is coming in waves. It is slow. They take, throw infantry. They are throwing it in all directions. The infantry is attacking. Our guys destroy them, knock them out. Sometimes they withdraw a little, sometimes they do not. But. The enemy is killed. Then they have a pause. They are waiting for the next echelons to arrive. At this point, there is a short pause. Then they move forward again. So in the near future we expect, as I said at the beginning, an attack on Pokrovsk and an attack on New York - this is what the enemy will try to do. That is why I want to once again call on the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to finally pay attention to the quality of what is called defensive structures. We are still not equipping defensive lines that can be occupied by troops. These lines must be disguised. They have to be dug in the plantations, disguised from enemy observation. There should be concrete structures, or powerful bunkers and overhead logs 4-5 meters deep so that they can take cover from fire. What I'm telling you now is so basic, so obvious that it's just a shame that I still have to tell someone on the air. It's not there at all. It's just a shame in general. This is such irresponsibility for people's lives. If we really had a functioning democracy, I don't know... this president and the government, they would have already been in the Verkhovna Rada in front of investigative commissions and reported why they are still unable to fulfill their duties, why they just spit on the lives of soldiers and are unable to do anything. It's just a shame to talk about these defense lines. When it comes to taking photos, Zelenskyy comes somewhere, takes a photo in the Sumy region. He took a photo, presented the order and moved on. So you need to go to the second line at least once, to the trench, to see what they are digging there. What have they allocated 17 billion for this year? It is impossible to hold the line in these places. Who is responsible for this, please tell me? And then they say that someone is to blame. I want to tell you: no soldier is to blame for the breakthrough in Ocheretyne. Soldiers are doing everything there. Soldiers are doing everything they have the strength, intelligence and training to do. No matter what soldiers are sent there, no matter who takes up their positions, each of these people deserves respect. If a person has entered zero line, believe me, this is a person who has something in his soul, something in his heart. This person has character. And the fact that it cannot be effectively used there is not his problem. This is the problem of those who command him. And who inadequately, perhaps, assesses the abilities.
Western intelligence warns of a possible Russian attack. What might this attack look like, if at all?
Friends, the attack is actually taking place in Donbas. Our troops are holding back the Russians with all their might. We have the capabilities to do so. The main efforts of the Russians have been in the East, and they will continue to be in the East. The main problem is that we have not yet built a defense line that our troops can rely on. The actions of our command are not bounded - it's not tactics, it's some kind of bureaucracy. It is not reasonable to fight in such a way. This is not my opinion. I want to say that this is the opinion of many soldiers. If we are losing manpower. We have unresolved problems with mobilization. We have problems with ammunition. Let's then be ahead of the enemy and be stronger in terms of command and control. At the tactical level, first of all. And not just sit in the OSGT headquarters, draw arrows and borders and then wait for a miracle to happen and the infantry to do everything. It will not be like that.
Do you know, Yurii, why is the ban on Western weapons for the 12th Brigade?
This is an old story. Back in 2014, Russian agents in the United States ramroded a decision that the Azov regiment were allegedly Nazis, nationalists, and should not be given Western weapons. We all know how absurd this is. Why would they? What Nazis are there? 10 years have passed. Who will show the Nazis there? In 10 years, can you show me what was Nazi about the Azov regiment? It's just nonsense. But, unfortunately, this ban is in effect. Because we have no systemic influence on the American elite and, unfortunately, poor interaction with the American leadership and American politicians, weak lobbying on many issues that are sensitive to us, the issue of unblocking aid for Azov has not yet been resolved. This seems completely absurd, especially after Azov's immortal feat in Mariupol. But it continues. Ukrainian diplomacy must work. The authorities have to work on this... so far, we see no action. The petition was even banned from being registered.
The Verkhovna Rada allowed the mobilization of certain categories of convicts. What is your opinion?
I believe that everyone should fight during a war. I believe that if a person wants to fight on the front line, at zero line, he or she should do so. Because being on the front line is no less difficult than having your custodial restraint. If a person wants to defend their country and the entire people of Ukraine during a war, it is a noble desire. At zero line, a person can atone for any guilt. Of course, it is necessary to determine where he will perform combat missions. Not far away at the headquarters, but at zero line, on the front line. How long they should stay there, what the conditions are. Then there will be an order. That is why I believe that all convicts, if people have expressed such a desire, should have special units for convicts, which should be led by combat officers, combat sergeants and should perform combat missions in the most difficult areas. In this way, a person can really gain respect with arms and atone for the sins they have committed, and of course, defend the country, become a respectable member of society who has cleared their skirts that were in his life, start with a clean sheet. I think this is a powerful incentive. In my opinion, there should not be a category of citizens in the state who should be refused or bypassed by mobilization.
I'd like to hear your opinion on how much stocks of Soviet equipment the orcs will have at the current intensity of the battle? Do the Ukrainians have a chance of winning if Russia runs out of equipment?
The main equipment used by Russia now is no longer Soviet stockpiles. They have already used them. The main technical means used by the enemy, the means of destruction, are new production and supplies from Russian allies who are sponsoring the war, who are fighting against America with the hands of Russians. It's North Korea, it's Iran, which is supplying ammunition to keep Russia stuck in a war so that they can pursue their geopolitical interests. That's why the main thing Russia is doing now is production. They are ahead of us not in stockpiles at the moment, but in production. Unfortunately, Russia is developing its industry much more rapidly, incomparably faster than we are. Even though we have greater access to technology. Ukraine has not yet built a gunpowder plant. This is our weak point. While Russia has not only increased its gunpowder production, but it has deployed and mastered a new technology that they had not used before - the production of gunpowder from cellulose, i.e. wood. We could do the same, but we don't. I wish the whole world was open to us, we could buy ready-made production lines. Unfortunately, the government is not doing this. I cannot understand why. But I want to say, let's forget this myth about the stockpile. Where Russians are using old equipment now. They have a lot of it, and they are restoring it. We are doing the same. But they carry out the main operations and use new equipment. They are increasing its production.
What can you say about Arakhamia's statement about the two models of economic reservation that VR is considering?
Look, there is no point in commenting on servants of the people. These are people who change their minds faster than the weather. They can then redo all their drafts, find the third, fourth, fifth. I analyze when the government does something, when it submits some drafts, or makes some specific statements that it guarantees, some timeframes in which it wants to implement them. Otherwise, these words are not worth our time.
If Donetsk is a type of offensive on Avdiivka, why doesn't Ukraine bomb Donetsk? Why is there electricity, water, hospitals for the occupiers, and a quiet life ten kilometres from the breakthrough?
Ukraine is not at war with civilians. We have never launched and are not launching strikes just to bomb a city. There is a purpose. There are regular strikes in Donetsk. But they are aimed at the location of Russian military units in the city. There is no point in destroying infrastructure and wasting ammunition just to hurt some civilians. But Russian military units are being struck there.
Yurii, do you see any positive changes?
I see only one positive change - that a large number of people are still at the front. I see a large number of professionals who are adapting to the war. They are doing their best to master new technologies to destroy the enemy. And we have people to reform the army with. We have a large number of people who can be quality combat leaders, combat commanders, who should be trusted over untrained, unprepared people who can make our army's combat capability much higher than the enemy's. This is a big positive. There is progress in this. Some of our units are developing high-tech weapons. First of all, drones. Unfortunately, this is not a systemic solution. There are big problems with the development of drones as a branch of the army. But some units are developing... and this is positive.
The White House believes that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are preparing a counter-offensive in 2025. What do you think?
We need to think about current problems now. The current problem is that we still cannot stop the Russian offensive in 2024. Let's solve this strategic task first. And then we will move on to the other issues.
What about Krasnohorivka?
Very heavy fighting is going on there. The 59th Brigade is fighting very hard with the enemy. The command there has also changed. Unfortunately, instead of the brigade commander, who was well aware of the situation and knew how to act tactically, they replaced him with an officer who always said: ‘Yes, sir!’. Sir, yes sir! The situation is always tense but controlled according to him. Unfortunately, this is a very big risk. But there are units of the 59th Brigade there. There is a large number of motivated, high-quality commanders, sergeants and soldiers. And the defence of the city is based on the initiative, strength and character of these fighters and some territorial defence units. We have the capabilities to hold Krasnohorivka. The main problems are always the problems of battle management. I hope that lessons will be learned. At least in the situation of Ocheretyne. And this bureaucratic desire to hear positive reports all the time will stop. The report should not be ‘everything is tense and controlled’. The reports should be focused on what opportunities are being created to destroy the enemy, in what way, how the frontier is being controlled, and not a specific point on the map for which battalions are being killed. This is what you need to think about. You have to think tactically. And not to throw the infantry under the adjusted fire of artillery, aircraft, drones. We need to think, to protect people not in words, as we do, but to protect people with competent tactical decisions - supply, fire support. This is how people are protected. And with high-quality engineering structures. And not in words.
Yurii, is it realistic to lose the entire Donetsk region? Would it mean losing the war?
First. The Russian offensive does not mean that Ukraine is exhausted and cannot stop it at all. There are no such sentiments at the frontline, so you understand. I am giving you the critical situation and information now not because everyone at the front likes criticism. No one likes criticism. But criticism is vital for our soldiers, this is the position of our military because they want to win and understand how. We have a significant number of professional people who know, understand, have adapted to modern warfare and are learning every day. This criticism is just anger that elementary things are not being implemented and are underestimated. I see no risk of losing the Donetsk region at the moment. We have opportunities to retain a significant part of the Donetsk region and stop the Russian offensive. Because if the enemy is able to drive us out of the Donetsk region, he will not stop. This must be clearly understood by all of us. Therefore, they need to be stopped in the Donetsk region, so that later we don't have to think about where they will stop in the Dnipropetrovsk or Kyiv region. This would be realistic. That is why we need to criticize the situation near Ocheretyne now so that we don't have to criticize it near Dnipro later. Unfortunately, few people in Kyiv understand this. Especially in the office of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, who goes to the front for photo shoots, not to make decisions on the situation.
What will happen to Kostiantynivka?
At the moment, Kostyantynivka is in Ukraine, and our troops are doing everything possible to hold Chasiv Yar. These are the closest approaches to Kostyantynivka. Therefore, at the moment, Konstantynovka is the rear, even if it is close, but it is the rear. There is no collapse of the frontline. A large number of people in each section of the front are trying to do their best. But since our army has been bloated simply by the number of units, the number of structures, since there are no structural reforms in the army and instead of strengthening strong units with a strong core of commanders and sergeants, we have a large number of newly formed units that simply do not have enough commanders, we have problems with this. With stability. In certain areas. But to hold Kostyantynivka, believe me, a huge number of people are doing everything possible and impossible. Heroism and professionalism every day. I am thinking of visiting Chasiv Yar in the near future. We will see the situation. I think our army is doing everything possible to prevent the war from reaching Konstantinovka.
Why are unmanned systems forces being created? Isn't this an attempt to sabotage a very large element of the UAV company to stop the enemy by transferring it to other commanders with still scarce supplies?
In fact, I am in favor of creating a force of unmanned systems. But of course, this decision must have its own logic. There must be implementation. What happened here? This is the topic of a separate program. I promise you that we will have this program in the coming days. I will tell you about it in detail. The forces have been established. We have a decree. The President made an evening announcement. He said hurray. A commander was appointed and... that's it. There is nothing else. The commander was given one small center, one certain narrow sphere, to subordinate. And that was it. No generation of troops. No influence on the outcome of hostilities at the front. All these forces have no organizational form right now. They just... so there is no systematic work there. That's it. This is a big problem, unfortunately, that we have words, a lot of words from high-ranking officials, that are not suited action to the words. And people think that they must have created something, that they will do something. But they don't. Just as there was an independent effort at the front, some of the commanders and fighters were doing something, so they are doing it now, and that's it. And most of the drones were bought by volunteers - this is the fifth month of the year 2024. That million drones, dear friends, are not visible at the front. Now the supply of fpv drones to the front has slightly increased. A little bit. But again, even fpv drones are a small share. As for the Mavic reconnaissance drones that are needed, 90% of them are still volunteer-supplied, or 95%, as it is.
According to Ukroboronprom CEO Herman Smetanin, Ukraine has drawn level with Russia in the production of drones. What do you think, is it true?
Unfortunately, this is not true. Herman Smetanin apparently simply does not understand the situation at the front or does not analyze publicly available data. In many aspects, unfortunately, Russia overtakes us in terms of drones and is not inferior to us in this area. Quantitatively speaking, there is no technological difference. Therefore, this information is unreliable. I don't know why Herman Smetanin is saying this, why? This empty boasting by our leaders is a sign of lug-headedness. I understand that Mr Smetanin, if he said that, is simply not familiar with the real situation. He definitely has nothing to do with this production, because Ukroboronprom is definitely not the main producer of drones. In terms of quantity. So why is he saying this? They do produce some drones. But in terms of quantity, it's just nothing.
What about Kubrakov? Will there be any accountability for the funds allocated through the ministry and who does Yermak want to appoint in his place?
This is a different issue. It is a political issue. Of course, Yermak is going to remove Kubrakov. Let me remind you that I wrote about this a week ago. My statement was refuted by the Disinformation Centre at the Presidential Office, which said it was all untrue. They wrote that my post was a fake. It turned out that the fake was a statement by the Disinformation Centre that they had actually spread a fake. My information is confirmed. Of course, this is Yermak's intrigue. He wants to put people in charge of controlling Western funds so that he can control the budgets himself and, through his people, through Tatarov and other criminals whom Yermak has gathered under the roof of the Presidential Office, control the money of Western sponsors. This is a very dangerous situation. It is scandalous. Yermak's influence is simply dangerous for Ukraine, for the state. One person, who was not elected by anyone, who has no powers under the Constitution, just a clerk, the head of the office, controls everything now. Everyone reports to him, subordinates to him. And President Zelensky make in this way-poof !- all his teams stand by and do whatever Yermak wants, everything he wants. It's just strange, to be honest. Why is this happening? It's just shameful. What responsibility for the funds? What are you talking about? Our only hope in the country is that the National Anti-Corruption Bureau controls part of the government, unfortunately, not all of it, but in some areas it controls the government. We have to hope for this. But to hope that Zelenskyy will fight corruption among his entourage - this has never happened. He covers up any deal. Of course, the servants of the people feel completely unpunished and there will be no accountability or control. There has been no precedent for 5 years. I would like to remind you that Volodymyr Zelenskyy's presidency will soon be 5 years old. His legal constitutional term ends on May 20. So we will have another broadcast on that day, and we will summarize what Volodymyr Zelenskyy has achieved and not achieved after the end of his legal powers, determined by the presidential election.
We will not touch on this anymore. Our main topic is still the war. Thank you very much for the broadcast. Believe me, all my criticism is aimed at giving those people who are fighting, who are able to destroy the occupiers, more opportunities to do so. Unfortunately, the criticism is becoming so harsh because the government still fails to do basic things. These mistakes are repeated like a rake, constantly, year after year. Nothing changes. What can we do? We need to support those who are effective and capable. We have a lot of such people. The frontline is only holding on because there are people there who are much stronger than the enemy with their intelligence, professionalism, motivation, and patriotism. They are stronger. More than the advantage that the Russians have in ammunition of all kinds, aviation, artillery, drones, missiles - they are stronger than all this thanks to their intelligence and will. This is our strength. This is what is holding the frontline and what is protecting and will protect Ukraine. That is why, out of respect for all those who cannot watch us now, performing a combat mission. Today I believe in our Victory more than ever. Thank you for the broadcast and glory to Ukraine!
Yurii Butusov
