How can Ukraine’s energy system and each of us get through minus 15°C? Tips from expert Olha Babii

Author: Yevhen Kuzmenko, Tetiana Bodnia

Recently, Ukrainians have had to learn the basics of the country’s energy system at an accelerated pace.

We are being pushed into this by the enemy’s strikes and this year’s brutal winter. In the fourth year of the war, Putin has, unfortunately, lived to see the frosts and is now destroying Ukraine’s energy hubs with the upbeat zeal of a maniac-sadist. For our part, we have no choice but to survive, while also revising our views on what the energy sector should look like in a country at war.

Together with energy expert and former member of the National Energy and Utilities Regulatory Commission (NEURC), Olha Babii, we discussed in practical terms how the country and each of us can get through emergency power outages. In this interview, readers will find plenty of information that can come in handy during this crisis-hit, exceptionally hard winter.

We began with the week’s main news hook, President Zelenskyy’s announcement of a state of emergency in the energy sector. The head of this effort was designated as First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Energy of Ukraine, Shmyhal. But our first question to Ms Babii was about something else.

- Ms Babii, do you understand what set of actions and processes the President had in mind? Or is the phrase "state of emergency" being used here mainly for dramatic effect, with everything that ends up being done in the energy sector under these crisis conditions simply folded into that label?

- To be frank, we have effectively been in an emergency regime in the energy sector since the winter of 2022, when the system took its first hit and has, in practice, been adjusting its balance ever since. But today’s situation is as follows. If we look at the legal dimension, there is a provision that defines security of supply. It is set out in the relevant order on security of supply and stipulates that an emergency situation is introduced in the energy sector when a significant share of generation or grid capacity has sustained major damage and cannot properly meet demand over a prolonged period of time. In other words, this indicates that we are now facing a situation in which, as a result of the enemy’s missile-and-drone attacks, which have been ongoing for almost two months in a row across different regions, the power system is being systematically degraded, specifically in the generation and distribution-grid segment, the restoration of which will require more time than before.

Earlier, we had generation reserves and far larger stocks of equipment. Now, however, the scale of destruction is so great that more equipment, funding and, as I have said, time are needed. And to remedy the situation, swift, operational steps are required, which current bureaucratic procedures often do not allow.

- You said that the regulations use the wording "a significant number of facilities have been damaged." Do those documents define what share of overall damage should be considered "a significant number"?

- These parameters are determined by Ukrenergo jointly with the Energy Ministry. Under martial law, this information cannot be made public because it would be information for the enemy. But after this statement, it became clear that the scale of the damage is already critical for ensuring supply.

- Which steps cannot be taken quickly right now because of bureaucratic hurdles?

- These parameters are determined by Ukrenergo jointly with the Energy Ministry. Under martial law, this information cannot be made public because it would be information for the enemy. But after this statement, it became clear that the scale of the damage is already critical for ensuring supply. As an example, take distributed generation, which everyone is talking about. To connect it to the grid so it can start operating and producing electricity, a 2 MW unit, and we have quite a lot of them, takes 6 to 9 months under the standard bureaucratic procedure. That is because current procedures require an approved design with expert review, as well as technical clearances from gas and electricity operators. Then come commissioning works. After that, the facility has to be entered into the register of producers.

Next comes signing contracts with Ukrenergo and Naftogaz. This whole bureaucratic process can take 6 to 9 months.

The task now, in an emergency situation, is to cut procedures to the maximum so that all available and accessible generation, already available in hardware, can be connected to the grid.

- Does this not mean we could end up with another "Mindichgate" later on, with someone stealing money thanks to simplified procedures?

- I cannot comment on the "Mindichgate" issue. How someone steals money and how the cost of works is inflated is a matter for law enforcement. And it seems to me that law enforcement agencies and expert review bodies also have a role to play here.

We are talking about a situation where it will indeed be necessary to make swift administrative decisions to quickly connect specific facilities to the grid so that we have sufficient generation capacity.

What makes the lack of electricity more severe in sub-zero temperatures? Damage to the heat supply system, in Kyiv, for example, means the system has to be periodically shut down. And to restart it, you need not only the heat-transfer medium, but also a steady supply of electricity to pump it and circulate it through the network. So when we now see that buildings in Kyiv are not being filled with the heat-transfer medium properly, it is not because there is none. It is because we have outage schedules, and those buildings do not have continuous power for at least 48 hours to bring the system back online. These things are closely interconnected. This emergency situation will also make it possible to take additional management decisions not only in the power sector, but also in the electricity supply segment, especially for cities like Kyiv that have a centralized heating system.

- There are reports that Kyiv has the worst situation in terms of energy supply. Why has it turned out this way, and, setting politics aside, did Kyiv’s mayor and his team really do less compared with other cities? For example, Kyiv is compared in public statements with Kharkiv and Zhytomyr. What exactly does this shortcoming on the part of Kyiv’s local authorities consist of?

- The Kyiv region has always been a deficit area in terms of access to sufficient volumes of electricity. Kyiv did have a certain amount of power generation that was produced and consumed, but the city as an agglomeration has fairly high electricity consumption due to its infrastructure and large population. Historically, after the loss of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, which had been built, among other things, as a backup source of electricity for Kyiv and the Kyiv region, the capital became a conditionally deficit region. In effect, the city was consuming the maximum amount of capacity that could be delivered.

What is happening now? Even though a certain amount of capacity can be transmitted to Kyiv, the enemy is striking the substations through which electricity is supplied here. In Kyiv itself and the wider agglomeration, there is not enough generation to cover this deficit when there is no access to electricity from external networks.

What did Kharkiv do? After they lost their main source of electricity, a CHPP that was repeatedly bombed, they built a large amount of small-scale generation over 2.5 years: 1 MW and 2 MW units. It is spread across the city. And in a deficit mode, when the CHPP is not operating, it allows them to generate a certain amount of electricity that at least covers critical infrastructure and the needs of part of the population.

In Kyiv, this did not happen. The focus here was on thermal power plants — centralized sources of electricity generation. As such, there is almost no distributed generation in Kyiv.

I want to say something important now, something I think everyone needs to hear. We need to understand that we will be living under the threat of power shortages not just today, not tomorrow, not the day after tomorrow, but for 150 years, as long as we have Russia as a neighbor. And we need to think about building distributed generation in cities as an element that, under any circumstances, will produce electricity when there is no access to the unified power system. This is already a matter of security for every city.

For two years, we looked at this as something that might bring commercial gains, gains for investors. No! Cities must take responsibility for ensuring that every city develops this distributed generation on the basis of municipal institutions, which will meet the city’s needs in the event of a lack of electricity.

- Tell me, besides Kharkiv, are there other cities that operate under a similar energy model?

- Yes. But I will not name them, following the example of other officials. Because, unfortunately, we are now seeing that Russia’s strike tactics have changed. They can use large numbers of Shahed drones to destroy even small boiler houses. And if we talk about these cities, we will be putting them at risk.

But there are cities that could be held up as an example, because they are now energy-independent. They have built a large amount of distributed generation, with the focus on ensuring that critical infrastructure is powered first if electricity from the grid is unavailable. But these cities cannot be named, and I will explain why. The point is that Russia’s tactics have changed significantly, and through mass Shahed attacks, they can now destroy even district boiler houses. That is why there is no need to talk about these cities out loud, as some experts do, trying to showcase the successes of some cities while devaluing the achievements of others.

As for Kyiv, there are problems related to the fact that there is relatively little distributed generation in the capital. That is why we have this situation.

- Can the measures and processes you described be developed quickly in Kyiv and other cities that have not done this so far? Or is there a need for ramp-up time, training, and other things?

- In fact, this has to be done now. And it should become part of the national security policy. What’s more, these cities must concentrate their budgets on these issues. I can say something radical that no one will like, but given what is happening, I would, at the state level, ban cities from spending on capital expenditures, kindergartens, schools, construction projects and roads, until they build distributed generation. In other words, spending should be prohibited until they build distributed generation. Once they do, and ensure security-grade electricity supply, then money can be spent on other capital works. This may be unpopular, but it needs to be done.

- Well, after the country suffers through the energy situation this winter, such initiatives may be met by the public with much greater enthusiasm.

- Unfortunately, I cannot agree with you. We already had the 2022 blackouts; we had the 2024 deficits, when we lost 9 gigawatts. We had a hellish summer when we were burning without this. But, unfortunately, no one did anything. And it seems to me that the time has come for bans and radical steps to ensure that distributed generation is built. Because, unfortunately, for some reason, accountability at the local level does not materialize.

- And in a state of emergency in the energy sector, can local authorities be directly forced to address this?

- Yes, it is possible. It would have to be a set of separate, binding decisions, but I will say right away that very fast results should not be expected from these steps. Because even if we adopt these decisions, reallocate funds, and start building all of this, the commissioning of those facilities can only be expected in a year. After all, there are lead times for manufacturing equipment, carrying out construction works, and a host of other factors, without which such generation cannot exist.

- Let’s return from the medium-term perspective to the situation in the here and now. We keep hearing that the main threat in the coming weeks (and, accordingly, the Russians’ main bet with their grinding missile and drone strikes on energy hubs) for Kyiv and beyond is a collapse of the heating system in apartment buildings, these buildings freezing through, making life in them impossible. Ukrainians are hearing the term "dew point," and Mayor Vitalii Klytschko is urging Kyiv residents who have the option to leave the city for private homes outside it. My question to you is: how likely, given the current state of affairs (including the weather forecast and the Russians’ constant attacks), is this worst-case scenario?

- Any worst-case scenario is possible, because there is a high likelihood of further missile-and-bomb strikes. This is the key factor that will influence how likely one or another adverse scenario is. That is why we need to prepare for this scenario, and that preparation should be as follows. First, it is about responding to emergencies and preventing negative consequences from occurring.

- Specifically?

- It is the same draining of water from the network that we have already heard about and seen. It is the timely setting up of warming centers. It is the formation of additional repair teams that will restore facilities that may freeze up. It is an additional procurement of generators to restart those buildings where the heat-transfer medium has stopped and cannot be brought back into circulation for several days because there is no electricity. And it is simply the additional deployment of operational units that will handle the emergency.

At the same time, as this week has shown, Kyiv is generally coping with these challenges. Credit should be given to Kyiv’s Teplokomunenergo: they are doing everything they can. But we must understand that handling the aftermath is not only Teplokomunenergo; it also involves road and public transport services; communications, logistics, healthcare, social services, and all emergency services that will be working on the ground. In other words, it is coordination and crucially their material and technical sustainment.

- Some people say that radiators in their buildings are literally bursting. At the same time, some say the water was drained from the pipes, while others say it was not. Tell me, will buildings where pipes or radiators have burst become unfit for living altogether? Will it be possible to repair the damaged systems?

- These buildings will remain suitable for living. The system will need to be repaired, and the launch of the heat transfer medium after repairs will be possible once we have a temperature regime at least close to zero. The issue with restarting the heat supply in the high-rise buildings that are currently affected, 16-storey and 25-storey buildings, is that they did not arrange backup power in advance for pumping the heat transfer medium. As a result, the internal heating systems freeze because there is no continuous system to circulate the heat transfer medium. In severe frost, even when the heat transfer medium itself is functioning properly, the pipes simply freeze in areas where there is no circulation.

But I will say this again: there is no need to panic; these buildings can be restored. It is important to remain calm, and everyone in their own building needs to take responsibility given the current situation. I know of buildings where residents pooled their money to buy a small generator to keep the heat transfer medium circulating. Emergency service workers are operating in some areas. The key point here is for residents themselves to calmly and carefully assess the situation. Very often, the workload on emergency repair teams and dispatch services is so heavy that they are physically unable to keep up. On top of that, these people are working in freezing conditions, at minus 18 degrees Celsius. This greatly complicates the work of repair crews, as it involves the risk of frostbite — a person cannot remain in such cold for more than two hours. So this is a difficult situation, but it can be stabilised over time.

- Ms Babii, you have explained what the authorities should do to prepare for worse scenarios. Let us talk about what already exists. Since 2022, the central government has been betting  (and encouraging local authorities to do the same) on a network of "Points of Invincibility". Meanwhile, people say these points’ capabilities come nowhere near meeting all needs, and that in many places they are effectively "Potemkin villages". Should priorities be shifted to other projects?

- Look, regardless of what a Point of Invincibility is like, it can be sufficient when it is properly equipped: a generator has been installed, funds have been allocated for diesel fuel, it has been insulated, and everything needed has been delivered there. When you come to a Point of Invincibility and everything I have listed is there, that means it is equipped. So, Points of Invincibility should exist and this is the key — they must be fully equipped and prepared to receive people. In other words, it is not enough to have a sign that says "Point of Invincibility"; the point that people will come to must have the full set of supplies and equipment. Moreover, given the current situation and if we are looking at the worst-case scenario, we now need to consider deploying additional Invincibility centres — possibly on the basis of schools, where generators could be centralised, and at other facilities. Because if we have freezing temperatures through the end of February (with a brief warm spell at the end of January), our main task now is to make it to spring. Points of Invincibility can play a major role here. But they must be fully equipped.

- On Points of Invincibility, people say that while you can still charge a small power bank there, they will not let you charge a power station. Should this option also be provided?

- It would be worth doing if Points of Invincibility or designated locations are equipped with additional generators specifically for recharging these power stations.

- But who should do this? Local authorities?

- Yes. Local authorities are responsible for equipping Points of Invincibility.

- We have more or less discussed what the authorities, central and municipal, should do. But what should Ukrainians themselves do so as not to "crash the energy system", on top of the frost, Russian attacks, and, in some cases, the same authorities’ negligence?

- What should we do? First, since we are living in a state of emergency, we need to think about our daily lives. First, every home should definitely have a minimum supply of water (2-3 bottles) in case of a water outage. Water is essential, and we have seen that a lack of water supply causes problems.

Second, if the temperature of the heat transfer medium in our home is, say, holding at 10–15°C and we feel fine, we should think about insulating our home and setting up one room where we can stay comfortably. There should be a thermos of hot water, an insulated floor (even simply covering it helps retain heat), and the basic items we need. This kind of simplifying the living space can mean that instead of trying to heat a large apartment, we stay in one small room with comfortable conditions.

Third, of course, is plenty of warm drinks and at least some warm food. If there is an opportunity to prepare that, it is, of course, a preventive measure so that we do not fall ill.

It is important to remember that when electricity is restored, you should not switch everything on at once. We remember situations where there was first a strike and then repairs. And when power was restored to Kyiv and everyone switched everything on at the same time, we ended up with an outage because the system could not handle it. The key point is not to turn everything on at once; prioritise what you need to switch on now and what can wait an hour.

Another important aspect: we can see that electricity is being supplied at night. That is the time when we have a certain resource. Yes, getting up at night is inconvenient and uncomfortable. But such a schedule, which allows us to recharge and use electricity for essential needs, reduces the burden on the system. And when that "Ukrenergo cat" is crying and asking people not to switch everything on at once, the point is that appliances should be turned on gradually and energy should be used consciously.

We do not have to turn on every light; we do not have to switch on everything we used to. This way, we will help the system and avoid burning out the transformers that deliver electricity to us.

This is what people can do, first and foremost, take care of themselves and their elderly neighbours. Check whether they have food and water. It is worth finding out who lives next door and establishing communication, the kind we had in 2022. And mentally prepare for the fact that we need to hold out until the end of February.

- There are now cases where individual phases burn out in apartment buildings. People report this to municipal housing service dispatchers and try to reach DTEK, but receive no feedback. What should they do? These are entire large stairwells where small children also live. Many such reports, often with specific addresses, can be seen on social media. People are literally begging for help, but no one responds. What should be done in such situations?

- I am going to say something that people may not like, but this is the reality: we are at war, and the number of repair crews is limited, while the number of emergency incidents is far higher. Of course, one can accuse DTEK of responding too slowly when crews need to arrive. But given the number of failures occurring across the networks, they have increased many times over compared with the security conditions we used to live under.

For example, the lift in my building broke down today. It does not work even when there is electricity, because residents are trying to carry items upstairs and use the lift whenever power is available. I submitted a request and am waiting; it should be fixed tomorrow or the day after. But the core issue is that companies face a shortage of personnel relative to the enormous number of emergencies and service calls. We are dealing with an objective situation in which the number of breakdowns has risen sharply following missile and bomb strikes. In addition, these emergency crews are not only expected to restore power in residential buildings; they also have to replace destroyed transformers.

- That is understandable, the problem is the lack of two-way communication. In practical terms, you write to some kind of bot, and no one responds. Meanwhile, people with burned-out phases are left waiting, without any answers at all. So what can actually be done in this situation?

- What needs to be done now? Distribution system operators must, in the near term, ensure proper feedback communication. Period. People need to be told the plain truth and given realistic timelines. Yes, I understand that these processes cannot be technically sped up. But people need to be told honestly: "We will fix this within 24 hours. Please wait." Then people will wait 24 hours. Of course, they will curse, but they will wait.

- Right now, if this is an emergency situation, there should be schedules. Instead, there is complete silence on air. And only once the electricity is restored does it turn out that it has been restored.

- Look, there are unscheduled power outage schedules, and there are emergency outages. When you see in the app that schedules are not in effect, it means electricity will be supplied as it is available.

- I understand that. I am talking about something else, the state of emergency that the President spoke about. And it is already being said that if there is a state of emergency, there is complete silence and no one comments on anything...

- No. One of the key tasks of a state of emergency is precisely proper public communication. Let us wait for the headquarters, see its powers and core tasks, and only then comment. Because, in truth, we are generating more emotion for ourselves than making rational moves.

- Some media outlets have reported that water will also be supplied on a schedule, because that is how they interpreted the state of emergency. Does a state of emergency, in general, imply that everything is supplied according to schedules?

- A state of emergency is introduced in order to ensure the maximum possible provision of services to everyone under conditions of limited resources. And in order to draw any concrete conclusions, I advise relying on official sources. If, for example, your service provider is Teplokomunenergo, and when you call the emergency line, that provider states that a state of emergency is in effect in the city, restoration works are underway, and the expected timeframe for your address is such and such, then only that information should be trusted. If Kyivvodokanal publishes on its website and across all its channels that water will be supplied on an hourly basis, then only that information should be trusted.

We all need to understand that we will receive services to the extent that resources are available. If there is electricity and gas, we will receive services. If access to them is limited, if the system has been bombed, then our access will be limited. And we should follow updates exclusively from official sources.

In general, I want to tell you the following. The third war that is currently being waged against us is disinformation. There is a lot of this in the media, when assumptions are made: everything is being drained, we are freezing; photos of Alchevsk and Yushchenko in Alchevsk...

Overall, I want to say the following. The third war being waged against us right now is disinformation. There is a great deal of this in the media, when assumptions are made that everything is being drained, that we are freezing; images of Alchevsk and Yushchenko in Alchevsk are circulated…

Let’s put it this way: this is a war. And our basic hygiene as consumers is to rely on official resources. Our key task is to understand, in our own household, who supplies us with water, heat, and electricity, to clearly identify that specific provider. And if something is missing, we should address that provider directly.

- Why are unscheduled and at times seemingly disproportionate and unclear power outages necessary? We all know how users perceive this and how much it complicates their lives. But how do energy specialists view this, and why do they decide to impose emergency outages, can you explain that?

- How does it all work? Broadly speaking, today the power system is operating. The transmission system operator has a clear understanding of generation volumes and an approximate level of consumption. There are no strikes; repairs are underway in some areas. The operator can see which generating units will be brought online and which substations will be switched on.

Ukrenergo reviews the situation and says: "Kyivenergo, tomorrow I am allocating 1,000 kilowatts to you." Based on that volume, Kyivenergo separates out critical infrastructure (the metro, water supply, trolleybuses, and so on) and says: "I have isolated critical facilities, and everything else goes to residential consumers." If it sees that this volume will not be sufficient for the next day and that schedules need to be introduced, then, as you may have noticed, the schedule for the next day appears in the app in the evening (that black square). This is the standard operating mode of the system until it is restored on a planned basis — provided it is not being bombed.

This is the first part — it is called "unscheduled power outages."

Let’s move on. It is, conditionally speaking, one o’clock at night. We go to shelters because aircraft have taken off or Shahed drones are approaching. We are sitting in the shelter, the attack begins, and an hour later, we read: "Emergency outages are being applied in Kyiv." What does this mean? It means that the power outage schedule will no longer apply. Instead, whatever volume of electricity is physically available will be supplied. The introduction of emergency outages indicates that the facilities that have been hit are being inspected, their actual condition is being assessed, and the timeframe for their restoration is being determined. This often takes two to three days, because the Russians have gone further: they are now striking generation facilities not only with missiles and Shahed drones, but with missiles and drones that are fitted with mines. As a result, additional demining of the facilities is required, and only after that can repair crews move in.

Once this assessment has been completed, Ukrenergo again has a clear understanding of how much generation capacity is available and how much electricity it can distribute through intact networks. It then reintroduces emergency schedules and says: this is when unscheduled power outage schedules are back in place.

That is how the system works. In other words, unscheduled outage schedules are applied when there is an emergency, and it is being resolved, while emergency outages are applied when facilities are still being inspected and no one yet fully understands how the restoration will proceed.

When emergency outages are introduced, I advise no one to use elevators or to repair electrical appliances. Under emergency outages, electricity can either disappear suddenly or reappear just as suddenly.

Once again, why are unscheduled outage schedules or emergency outages introduced? Because either a generation facility (a power plant) has been hit and is no longer operating, having disconnected from the grid; or a substation that was transmitting electricity from that plant has also been hit and can no longer transmit power. And as soon as either of these two scenarios occurs, emergency outages are introduced immediately.

- Ms Babii, how have you applied your knowledge in your own daily life? What is working in your apartment, and how do you reduce energy-related difficulties in practice?

- Starting from the winter of 2023, everyone in our household has their own power bank. We have fiber-optic internet connected to the apartment. We also have an EcoFlow, despite everyone saying it was expensive and that it would end up being thrown away later.

We also keep a constant supply of water and food at home. We have thermoses and warm clothing that we wear when going to shelters. Everyone has their own emergency bag, and during periods without electricity we live in a mode of maximum conservation and do not turn on the lights at home. In other words, we could turn them on, but we choose not to.

What else? We have flashlights of various sizes and candles. I will not say that we stockpiled sugar and flour, but we do have all the basic items that allow us, in the absence of electricity, to keep warm and get through five to ten days.

- Is there anything you would like to say to our readers in closing?

- I will share my personal view. Unfortunately, the so-called energy truce at the time was a tactical move by the Russians, intended to lull our population and "teach" us to live a normal life. And once people had lived that normal life, few still remember how, in December 2022, we were working from shelters. Personally, that winter I worked in a shelter, and I had three bouts of tonsillitis. Because we had no electricity. And, for example, the math teacher who was shown all over the internet was conducting online lessons for children from a Novus store, remember? She was my son’s teacher…

For some reason, we have forgotten this. But we will have to live this way for a very long time. Not for one year, not for two, but for years, for decades. This is a new way of life, and we must learn to live like this. This is not a story that will end tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. This is a marathon. As long as Russia exists, we may be without electricity. Period. There is no energy grid protection system in the world that could guarantee such protection. We are a very large country, and it is an illusion to believe that someone will build virtual protective structures over substations and that they will work. Yes, they will preserve equipment and speed up repair work. But this is how we will live from now on. And we need to come to terms with it.

Yevhen Kuzmenko, Tetiana Bodnia, Censor.NET