A planned terrorist attack: Why did Russian army down MH17?
As of early July 2014, the situation of Russian mercenaries in the Donbas was catastrophic. In Sloviansk, the most efficient detachments had been stuck. Proper supply from the Russian Federation could not be established since all major highways had been blocked by Ukrainian troops. The delivery was possible only by roundabout routes.
The Russian command was well aware that without constant supply of weapons and ammunition the mercenary units would be swiftly defeated — they would simply flee.
The only way to change the situation was with the use of the regular Russian army.
So the Russian command brought its artillery and reconnaissance units into action and initiated attacks on the Ukrainian troops at the border in order to block and destroy our grouping in D sector.
For the fire support of our troops, the Ukrainian command used aviation — Su-25 attack aircraft, and An-26 transport planes for the supply of troops.
Aviation was an important tactical advantage of ATO forces. So the enemy decided to knock out this trump card. The war was covert: the Russian Federation tried to prevent mass deployment of regular troops. Therefore, the pressure on Ukraine was demonstrative — aimed at showing great superiority, the ability to build up its strength, and to strike suddenly upon vulnerable spots.
If the Russian command had the task of simply covering up their troops, the air defense of the ground forces of the short range (Tor, Pantsir, Strela-10) would have solved that task much more efficiently than a single Buk. It occurred later in Luhansk and Ilovaisk — the Russian invasion troops were covered by short-range air defense systems, not Buks, and inflicted serious losses to Ukrainian aviation.
Why Buk? The enemy led a sabotage terrorist war with limited means, hoping that Ukraine's resistance will be weak, and that after another stage of escalation Kyiv will make concessions. On July 11, a camp of Ukrainian troops near Zelenopillia came under Russian MLRS fire. It resulted in 35 Ukrainian soldiers killed. Russia had demonstrated it would use its artillery to strike upon Ukrainian positions. In addition, the massive use of tanks and mortars began. The same followed in air warfare: first, they used portable anti-aircraft missile systems, followed by the use of Buk upon high-altitude targets.
A part of the secret war concept was to transfer one medium-range anti-aircraft Buk missile system. This Buk was to be used as a sabotage weapon — to down one or two aircraft at high altitude in order to inflict damage not only to Ukraine's military aviation, but to the entire state, and force Ukraine to close its airspace over the Donbas for civilian airliners. This was done with the purpose for Ukraine to lose air transit as punishment for the use of aviation in the Donbas. The Kremlin sought to apply unexpected asymmetric measures to paralyze the will of the Ukrainian leadership to resist.
On July 14 near Luhansk, the Buk brought down a transport aircraft, An-26. After this attack, the Buk defiantly proceeded through Luhansk to Donetsk, where it was placed in the city downtown so that numerous witnesses could see it. It was an act of intimidation, a demonstration of strength. Mercenaries started to write on social media: "Now we have a Buk!”
On the same day, July 16, the Russian Federation officially announced the airspace above the Donbas closed to aviation flights.
And at the same time, on the same day the enemy redeployed the Buk from Donetsk to the same vulnerable area of Torez-Snizhne-Dmytrivka. This redeployment was done without publicity, secretly. Would anyone believe that while sending Buk from Donetsk to Torez, Russian generals spent time on explanations or warnings that civilian planes could flight over some corridors?
No. The firing crews, of course, were told they could down anyone. After the notification from the Russian Federation there will be no Russian planes in the sky, which means that the rest of them, whichever you down, will be a problem of Ukrainians. After all, this is their country; they are responsible for all the problems.
The Kremlin was well aware that Moscow's recommendations to close part of Ukraine's sky space would not be taken into account by foreign airlines.
After all, foreigners could make a quick decision if the notification was issued by Ukraine. And Ukraine could not suppose that Russia would use anti-aircraft missiles to destroy civil airliners at a height of 10 kilometers. No one could believe that any threat existed for aircraft at the working altitude of jet airliners.
Hitting an aircraft at this altitude is only possible with weapons that are in service of a regular army. Who would have thought that the entire Russian army could behave like terrorists?
That's right — no one.
The Kremlin planned the tragedy being sure that in the chaos of those days no one would be able to prove and establish the involvement of the Russian Federation. To carry out the sabotage action, the Russians didn’t send a complete air defense missile battalion (with a radar, with officers capable of assessing the air situation), but a single launcher, with the crew selected not by professional qualities, but by loyalty and ability to keep silence, who did not think about consequences of their actions on the territory of Ukraine. They were taught they could do anything because "they were not there." If Buk had been sent as part of its division of the 53rd Air Defense Missile Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces, then, of course, the officers would have realized immediately that a civilian aircraft was moving along its corridor. No one would have fired upon that target — there would have been a group of witnesses. There would be a chance of leakage.
That's why only one self-propelled Buk fire system was needed. They missed one thing: that the moment of the launch will be photographed on a high-quality camera with good lens; that the author of the photo will not get scared and find a way to pass it to pro-Ukrainian businessman Vitalii Kropachev, who will give the photo to MP Anton Herashchenko; that intelligence of the Ministry of Internal Affairs will obtain shots of Buk’s movement in the Donbas that can be geolocated; that Ukraine will act as one front, able to quickly organize the search for all kinds of evidence, with involvement of international experts; that the Kyiv Institute of Forensic Expertise will conduct a unique operation to identify the combat components of surface-to-air and air-to-air missiles; that they will even find fragments of the body of the Buk anti-aircraft missile, as well as the submunition of the anti-aircraft missile; that the Kremlin propaganda will not be able to deceive everyone; that a wave of indignation will rise, and an international inquiry commission will be created that will find a lot of new proofs and evidence of Russia's involvement in the downing of the Boeing and the murder of 298 people...
Yurii Butusov, Censor. NET
