AFU should continue counteroffensive, taking advantage of Putin’s mistake, - ISW
The AFU should take advantage of the mistake of the president of the aggressor country, Vladimir Putin, who "drives" his troops to conduct offensive actions, analysts of the Institute for the Study of War believe.
This is stated in the ISW report, Censor.NET informs.
"Ukraine and its supporters should take advantage of Putin's mistake by continuing the counteroffensive under circumstances that are much more favorable for Kyiv than for Moscow," the message reads.
It is also noted that Ukrainian troops continue to achieve limited success in the Luhansk region and will probably be able to achieve greater success if they are reinforced by troops from the western part of the Kherson region.
Росіяни, безумовно, також зміцнюють свої оборонні позиції в Луганській області, але ЗСУ, тим не менш, просуваються вперед, і немає підстав прогнозувати, що погано навчені, погано оснащені і з низьким моральним духом російські резервісти зможуть зупинити українські війська, окрилені своїми перемогами, в їхньому просуванні.
Therefore, a cessation or prolonged slowdown in hostilities over the next few months is highly unlikely. The Russians are clearly not trying to create and strengthen defensive positions along the entire front line, but are rather resuming offensive operations in the Donetsk region.
The Ukrainians will almost certainly continue their counteroffensive operations, which are already underway. Both sides are unlikely to stop hostilities in the winter. The hostilities are more likely to increase rather than decrease as temperatures drop.
Also, any attempt at a truce or cessation of hostilities at this time will be overwhelmingly in favor of Russia.
The fact that Putin continues to push his generals to attack under the current circumstances is a serious mistake from a military point of view, ISW says.
"This probably has to do with the psychological factors that led Putin to order the invasion, but also with Putin's need to demonstrate his toughness to the faction led, at least publicly, by Wagner's financier Yevgeny Prigozhin. Therefore, Putin is unlikely to seek to a ceasefire, if it is not accompanied by significant Ukrainian or international concessions," analysts say.
The ISW also reminds that Ukraine has not yet "in any way liberated the minimum territory necessary for its future security and economic survival, even after the final victory in the west of Kherson region."
