Russia will be ready for war with NATO in next five years - Danish intelligence
The threat posed by Russia to NATO countries, including Denmark, remains relevant. The Russian army is already building up its military capabilities, and several factors will be decisive for an invasion.
According to Censor.NET, this is stated in a Danish intelligence report published on 11 February.
In particular, it is noted that Russia may be ready to launch a full-scale war against the Alliance within the next five years.
"Russia is rebuilding its armed forces to fight the Alliance on equal terms. The Kremlin is doing this with financial and material support from China, North Korea, and Iran. Russia's willingness to risk war with NATO could increase if European countries do not simultaneously increase their military capabilities in response to Russia's capacity-building efforts," the report says.
On 12 February, the British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported that in 2024, all European countries spent $457 billion on defense, while Russia spent $462 billion on its own.
The DDIS intelligence assessment notes that Russia has not yet decided to launch a full-scale war against NATO but is expanding its military capabilities to preserve this possibility.
"For now, Russia is avoiding actions that could trigger Article 5 of the Alliance's commitment to mutual self-defense, but could take even greater risks if it sees the balance of power shifting in its favor," the Danish intelligence report says.
The DDIS assessment notes that if Russia perceives NATO to be militarily or politically weakened, it may be more willing to attack a European NATO member. This risk is particularly likely to increase if Russia doubts the US military support for Europe.
The Intelligence Service also believes that ending or freezing the war in Ukraine on terms favorable to Russia will free up significant military resources that the Kremlin will use in another future military conflict.
The DDIS assessment also outlines a timeframe for the growth of the military threat from Russia in the event of a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine:
- Russia can unleash a local war against a neighboring state other than Ukraine within six months;
- Russia could be a real threat to NATO countries in the Baltic region in two years;
- Russia could be ready for a large-scale war in Europe, assuming that NATO does not rearm at the same pace as Russia in five years.
