"We have two strategies for next year": Ukrainian drone makers share their plans for 2026
Drone Industry
Neither manufacturers nor the military are prepared to look far ahead for now. After all, 2025 is ending with a great deal of uncertainty, including due to the negotiation track on ending the war.
However, Ukrainian manufacturers have already prepared certain strategies, Censor.NET reports in its article "War of drones and war of budgets: who will win in 2026?"
"We have a certain planning horizon for Q1 2026. Overall, for 2026, we have two strategies. Which one becomes the key will depend on the outcome of talks on a temporary ceasefire," the company Wild Hornets says.
DEVIRO says it plans to grow not by inertia, but through several clear strategic pillars on which it will build its development. The first is systematic work with the military.
"This channel will remain our core one. Direct procurement by units and brigades is the new norm of the war. This is where the truth becomes visible the fastest: what actually works, what doesn’t, what needs to be refined, and what people are willing to pay for. For a manufacturer, it’s also the shortest feedback loop, which means faster product evolution. We expect the number of direct contracts to grow, and their share to be at least 50% next year as well," company representatives said.
The second pillar DEVIRO will rely on is technological leadership. In their view, in 2026, it will not be those who simply increase the number of airframes who will grow, but those who create battlefield relevance.
"That is why we will focus on new functionality and capabilities of our systems. There aren’t many solutions on the market that are effective, reliable, and affordable at the same time. These three factors will be decisive in 2026 because the war is entering a phase of spending rationalization. We plan to increase R&D spending several-fold next year through grant assistance programs from European institutions," the company says.
The state programs Build with Ukraine and Build in Ukraine will become the third pillar for DEVIRO:
"This is potentially a major bridge for the next three to five years, but not merely as a source of funding. It is an attempt for manufacturers to achieve scalability by participating in joint projects, and for Ukraine, to build up a long-term technological edge. We expect that in the coming months a clear, workable procedure for manufacturers’ participation in these programs will be put in place. And if it is transparent, the market will get a new wave of growth — no longer an impulse like in 2024, but one on an industrial scale. Financial growth driven by direct contracts with partner countries to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could increase next year, with the share potentially amounting to 30% to 50%."
Scenarios for the development of the drone market in 2026
Earlier, the Tech Force in UA presented three scenarios for the development of Ukraine’s drone market in 2026:
- The "Status quo" scenario outlines a range of challenges Ukrainian manufacturers operate under: limited budget resources and the absence of a unified state policy to support domestic producers. This constrains their growth potential and creates a risk of losing competitive positions both in the domestic market and internationally.
- Implementation of the negative scenario would undermine the country’s defense capability, economic resilience, and the development of the defense-industrial complex: with state orders shrinking and exports remaining impossible, manufacturers would continue looking for relocation options, while state customers would become more dependent on imports and assistance from partner countries.
- The positive scenario would mark a new stage in the development of Ukraine’s defense sector thanks to market-based conditions, long-term contracts, stable state regulation, opportunities to export products and technologies, and the expansion of partnerships with allies.
