Belarusian opposition has sent Kyiv report on Lukashenko’s preparations for Belarus’s direct involvement in war against Ukraine
The Belarusian opposition believes that the self-proclaimed president, Alexander Lukashenko, is systematically preparing the country for direct involvement in the war against Ukraine. A report to this effect was submitted to the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha.
This is stated in a statement by the United Transitional Committee of Belarus, as reported by Censor.NET.
Background.The United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus (UTC) is the main executive body of the Belarusian democratic opposition, established on 9 August 2022 by its leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. The Cabinet’s main objectives are to defend Belarus’s independence, restore the constitutional order and prepare the country for democratic elections.
What is the report about?
Pavlo Latushko, Deputy Chair of the UTC, has provided the Ukrainian Foreign Minister with a detailed report on how Lukashenko is preparing Belarus for war.
Attached to the letter is a comprehensive 30-page report from the People’s Crisis Management Headquarters, which confirms the complete transformation of Belarus into a military platform for the Russian Federation. In this report, the Belarusians have identified eight key indicators that the Lukashenko regime is actively preparing for direct entry into the war.
Key indicators
- Legalisation of "pre-emptive strikes". As opposition figures point out, the Belarusian authorities have introduced key changes to military legislation. These include, in particular, amendments to the Constitution, as a result of which Belarus is no longer a neutral and non-nuclear country. The new Military Doctrine, adopted in 2024, officially permits the use of pre-emptive strikes in the event of an "imminent threat" (which could be interpreted as anything from a concentration of troops near the borders to other threats to national security) and authorises the deployment of the Belarusian army abroad.
- Large-scale deployment of troops. The number of contract soldiers has increased 1.5-fold since 2022, and the mobilisation reserve is estimated at 289,000 people. A Southern Operational Command is being established on the Ukrainian front (the total number of troops could rise to over 80,000), and a "people’s militia" (up to 150,000) is also being formed. Belarus is actively adopting Russia’s practices: SMS conscription notices have been introduced, and the recruitment of prisoners into the army has been permitted.
- The economy is being put on a war footing.
Over the past four years, defence spending in the budget has increased fivefold. Belarus’s defence industry is fully integrated with Russia’s, and a regime of total secrecy has been introduced. In 2024 alone, over 4,000 units of new military equipment were put into service.
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Integration with the Russian army has reached its peak: Russian troops are permanently stationed in Belarus, and tactical nuclear weapons and the ‘Oreshnik’ missile system are being deployed. Belarusian military personnel are being trained by instructors from the ‘Wagner Group’.
- The ‘Khrenin Line’ (Viktor Khrenin – Belarus’s Minister of Defence)and the militarisation of children. Defence lines are being built along the borders with Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania. Infrastructure (bridges, airfields) is being modernised to facilitate the movement of Russian heavy military equipment. Compulsory military training has been introduced in schools, and tens of thousands of children are to attend special military-patriotic camps.
- Mobilisation of the medical and civil sectors. The Belarusian Ministry of Health has approved guidelines for strict triage of the wounded in wartime.
In Minsk, 5,000 air-raid shelters have been inspected, warning systems are regularly tested, and body armour is being procured at district level for the needs of the militia.
- Stockpiling of strategic resources. Mandatory reserves of petroleum products have been doubled — to 30 days’ supply. The Belarusian Ministry of Defence has expanded the lists of civilian vehicles that may be mobilised during martial law. Furthermore, in accordance with Resolution No. 249 of the country’s Council of Ministers dated 15 May 2026, civilian transport belonging to enterprises may be forcibly organised into military convoys.
- Constant military exercises.
In 2026, Lukashenko’s regime continues the practice of continuous, large-scale military exercises. This is used to covertly check mobilisation lists and to maintain a high level of psychological tension within society.
As emphasised by the Defence Industry Committee, the report forwarded to the Ukrainian side not only documents these trends but also contains specific recommendations on how to prevent the worst-case scenario and curb the Lukashenko regime’s aggressive ambitions.
