What is threat of Russian attack on Ukrainian energy system
On March 22-25, Russia launched a massive attack on the Ukrainian energy sector. As a result, Kharkiv and Odesa have been living in a mode of emergency power cut-offs for several days.
Why Russia decided to attack the Ukrainian energy sector at the very end of the heating season, how it threatens Ukraine, and how to protect and develop the energy sector in the future, Censor.NET analyzed.
The largest Russian missile attack took place on the morning of March 22 and affected different regions of Ukraine. The Russians simultaneously attacked thermal power plants and hydroelectric power plants, as well as transmission substations operated by Ukrenergo.
While the attack was aimed at energy facilities across the country, the hits affected Kharkiv, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk regions the most.
"The goal is not just to damage, but to try again, just like last year, to cause a large-scale disruption in the country's energy system.
Unfortunately, there were hits and damage to power generation facilities, transmission and distribution systems in different regions. In addition, one of the power lines supplying ZNPP was de-energized due to the shelling.
There are power outages in some regions. Power engineers are already working to restore the power supply. We are doing everything possible to restore power to people as soon as possible," Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko said on Friday.
However, it was not that simple.
For three days now, Kharkiv has been living in a blackout mode. Odesa has been living in the same mode of emergency blackouts.
In Kharkiv, the Russians actually cut off energy facilities completely. On Friday night alone, according to the National Police, the Russians fired two Iskander-M missiles and seventeen S-300 ADMS missiles. The city's largest power generation facility, TPS-5, was destroyed.
Usually, one energy facility in Kharkiv takes 6-8 missiles. Most often, the Russians use S-300s, of which they have a lot. This looks like a specific missile DDoS attack.
While last winter, the goal of Russian attacks on energy infrastructure was quite clear: to blackmail the country and force it to negotiate, this goal is harder to understand now.
It is unlikely that this can be explained only by revenge for the accurate strikes on oil refineries. No one can guarantee that without these strikes, the Russians would not have hit the energy sector in the same way.
In fact, their actions now look like a planned destruction of generation on the left bank of the Dnipro. At the same time, they are cutting off power to metallurgical production in the Dnipropetrovsk region, with Kryvyi Rih being particularly affected.
Another area of attack is the west of Ukraine to cut off the routes of imported electricity.
The overall goal can be defined as the destruction of thermal and hydroelectric power plants across the country. The Russians have not attacked nuclear power plants yet.
What are the risks? According to Censor.NET's sources, blackouts across the country are likely to be avoided. Due to natural circumstances. Increased daylight hours and warming will lead to a decrease in electricity consumption.
However, this will also lower the threshold of sensitivity to attacks on power generation by the West. "While Americans and Europeans used to see on the news how the Russians were actually trying to freeze entire cities, now they will only see it as strikes on amorphous infrastructure. Although this does not make them less painful," says the source of the publication.
You may ask what they were building there for a whole year, as if they promised to protect energy facilities.
They were mostly protecting distribution capacities. It is not easy to protect a large energy facility.
In addition, thanks to satellite imagery, the Russians can see which facilities are protected and which are not. And they are now hitting the unprotected ones.
For Ukraine, the issue of electricity generation and balancing is again becoming critical.
As already mentioned, sources predict further attacks on thermal and hydroelectric generation.
On March 22, DTEK Group announced that it had lost about half of its generating capacity as a result of a massive Russian attack on the Ukrainian power system.
According to Ukrhydroenergo CEO Ihor Syrota, it will take years to restore the Dnipro hydroelectric power plant to its design state after the March 22 missile attack.
In January, Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko announced during a telethon that Ukraine plans to build new nuclear power units to compensate for the lost capacity of Zaporizhzhia NPP, as it is unknown what condition the plant will be in after de-occupation.
According to the minister, the readiness of 3rd electrical power unit is currently quite high.
After the construction of four units at Khmelnytskyi NPP, which will begin in 2024, the plant should become the most powerful in Europe.
Of course, nuclear power currently provides half of the balance of electricity production. But despite being the most sustainable production cycle, it is still the most dangerous. This is also because no one has a guarantee that Putin will not decide to attack a nuclear power plant one day.
Besides building large nuclear power plants, there is also the option of creating hundreds of small plants distributed throughout the country.
Six months ago, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of NPC Ukrenergo, said that the construction of small power plants is a matter of energy supply security and reducing the cost of the energy mix in Ukraine.
"We need to disperse generation not because we want to be in the trend of the green transition. But because it is a matter of security," noted Kudrytskyi at the time.
He explained that if there are 100 smaller power plants instead of one 1,000 MW power plant, such a power system cannot be taken out of operation by massive missile strikes.
"The second issue is the cost of the energy mixing. This generation is a cocktail of different technologies. We take most of it from renewable energy to reduce the cost of the energy mix. And we take a smaller part of the balancing capacities, which are expensive, so that the power system can effectively balance the increased amount of energy from wind and solar," said the CEO of Ukrenergo.
In principle, decentralization of generation as a progressive way to develop the power system has been discussed for a long time and is envisaged in the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2050, approved by the Cabinet of Ministers on April 21, 2023.
But there is a question of how to develop this project:
- Either it will be a government initiative with the creation of some kind of "State energy special investment project" with a guy in charge, for which Western donors are unlikely to give money;
- Or private business, including foreign business, will invest in it.
However, in the second case, another question arises: who will dare to invest in Ukraine not only in times of war, but also in a situation of chronic problems with payments and subsidized electricity tariffs for the population.
If a potential investor from Finland, Norway, or the UAE is shown the formation of a chain of debt in the energy market, he or she will obviously say: "Sorry, I'd rather invest in New Zealand."
However, the recent history of Odesa and Kharkiv makes us think that the development of small power plants will be the most effective. And it is no longer a question of whether we have enough electricity to turn on air conditioners in the summer.
Tetiana Nikolaienko
