Russia’s war against Ukraine may last another five years, - Economist
Western officials are increasingly suggesting that Russia’s war against Ukraine could drag on for another five years, writes The Economist.
This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the publication's article.
As noted, such assumptions are made by Western officials, given that neither Russia nor Ukraine is ready to surrender, but neither is it capable of making a breakthrough.
The article states that "these are not the happiest of times," as the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip threatens to spill over into the entire Middle East, with the US and Iran clashing in the background.
The Economist writes that Ukraine's use of anti-aircraft missiles is likely to increase dramatically in the winter, when Russia, having accumulated a months-long stockpile of missiles, will begin continuous attacks on Ukrainian energy systems.
The publication notes that the war in Ukraine has become a reminder not only of how much ammunition is wasted in major wars but also of how poor Western arsenals and their replenishment capabilities really are.
The US is ramping up production of 155 mm artillery shells, but its production in 2025 will likely still be lower than Russia's in 2024.
As an example of the tense situation with weapons, the publication compares the war in Ukraine and Israel's war with Hamas. Journalists point out that in general these are two different types of war and different weapons are needed to wage them.
Ukraine needs long-range missiles to strike Crimea, the article says, as well as armored vehicles to allow infantry to advance and demining equipment to overcome vast minefields.
But there are also common features. Last year, the US used its stocks of shells in Israeli warehouses to arm Ukraine. In October, she had to redirect part of the shells that were supposed to be delivered to Ukraine to Israel. Both countries also use the Patriot missile defense system.
As the publication adds, for now, the US will probably be able to satisfy the requests of both countries, but if one or both wars drag on, problems may arise.
"Later, compromises will have to be made, as some key systems will be redirected to Israel. Some of the systems that Ukraine needs for a counteroffensive may not be available in the numbers Kyiv had hoped for," said Mark Kancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington.
