Whoever wins in US, Putin is unlikely to negotiate with Ukraine - CNN
Currently, there is nothing to suggest that Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin is ready to sit down with Ukraine to end the war. And the results of the US presidential election will not affect the Russian president's decision.
According to Censor.NET, this is stated in a CNN article.
It is expected that if elected, Kamal Harris will largely continue the Biden administration's policy of supporting Ukraine, despite some disagreements, such as the use of Western weapons to strike targets deep in Russia.
Donald Trump, taking a radically different stance, suggested that he would stop supporting Kyiv's military efforts and said he could resolve the war "in one day." The terms of the peace plan proposed by his vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, are strikingly similar to Putin's wish list, CNN notes.
U.S. policy is at a crossroads, but it won't necessarily lead to a turning point in the peace talks, analysts say. This is because there is nothing to indicate that Russia is ready to come to the negotiating table, regardless of who is in the White House.
"What Trump thinks he can do, what leverage he has, is unclear at this point, but I don't think it's a quick process," said Thomas Graham, an expert on Russian foreign policy and an honorary member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
However, according to experts, a reduction in U.S. aid spending could well lead to changes on the battlefield.
Any potential president 'will try to exploit what he sees as political dysfunction in the United States, as well as 'cracks in Western unity,' Graham says.
These "cracks" could come from, among other things, the Trump administration's cuts in U.S. aid and reduced role in NATO, as well as a divided U.S. Congress. Financial pressure on European allies also plays a role, as do rifts within NATO with pro-Russian leaders in member states such as Hungary and Slovakia.
"In the absence of Western unity, in the absence of a clear demonstration that the West and Ukraine have a common vision of what they are trying to achieve, Putin has no reason to reconsider what he is doing in Ukraine at this time," Graham added.
The scale of the war is also too large for simple negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv, experts say. They argue that this is a much broader conflict between Russia and the West.
"For Putin, Ukraine is just a means to an end, and the end is to further limit US influence in international affairs," said John Lough, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Chatham House think tank in London.
"When Trump's advisers explain to him what's really going on here, and the fact that China is playing a key role in supporting Russia's ability to continue to wage this war... he may suddenly feel very strongly that he's not treating Putin very well," Lough said.
He added that Beijing would take any concessions "as further evidence of US weakness." This contradicts Trump's harsh rhetoric about the threat from China.
In his opinion, regardless of who wins the fight for the White House, the war will continue, "perhaps with less intensity, but for a long time."
"The Harris administration certainly won't sell out the Ukrainians, but it will really test their Ukrainian resolve and whether they are willing to continue to fight this exhausting war," the analyst says.
That is why Putin's strategy is also aimed at demoralizing the Ukrainian population. Observers note that the Ukrainian people are certainly exhausted, but they also do not seem ready for any kind of settlement. After the massacres of civilians in Bucha and Mariupol, the ill-treatment of Ukrainian prisoners in Russian prisons, and the forced deportation of Ukrainian children by the Russian state, Ukrainians know the harsh realities of Russian occupation.
Zelenskyy, meanwhile, continues to call for support from both sides, but emphasizes that if Trump "just wants to force Ukraine to give up everything and thus reach an agreement with Russia, then this is impossible."
