Russia no longer needs Iran’s help in war in Ukraine - Financial Time
Russia managed to establish independent production of Shaheds, accumulate 13,000 missiles and produce up to 200 new ones every month, so it did not suffer from Iran's significant losses in the conflict with Israel. Moscow is stepping up cooperation with China and North Korea to replenish its military resources.
According to Censor.NET, this is reported by Financial Time.
After nearly two weeks of fighting between Israel and Iran, the parties agreed to a truce. During this time, Iran's military and nuclear facilities were seriously damaged - events that could have alarmed Moscow, as Iranian assistance played a significant role at the beginning of the full-scale aggression.
In the early years of the war, it was Iran that provided Russia with "much-needed Shahed 136 combat drones and the technology to produce them". Subsequently, the Shahed drone, renamed Geran-2 by Russia, became one of the main tools for deep strikes on the territory of Ukraine. Iran also transported artillery shells and other ammunition across the Caspian Sea. In January, the two countries signed a strategic partnership agreement, demonstrating a desire to deepen cooperation. However, the situation has now changed.
As the publication notes, "a weakened Iran is unlikely to have much impact on Russia's military efforts".
Production of "shaheds" in Russia
Russia now produces a huge number of Shahed 136 drones on its own, having received production technology, blueprints and training from Iran. By localising production in the "Alabuga" Special Economic Zone, Russia has created its own variations of Iranian designs, improving drone engines, warheads and jamming resistance.
The reduction in missile production in Iran after Israeli strikes is also not critical. Although Russia received a batch of Iranian Fath-360s last year and "previously requested other models", it "did not even use these Fath-360s in Ukraine". Ukrainian intelligence estimates that "the Russian Federation has about 13,000 missiles of various ranges and produces up to 200 per month". That is, "it has no urgent need for Iranian missiles".
The Kremlin is deepening cooperation with new allies
The Kremlin has also expanded its foreign policy activities, creating new alliances. When it comes to Russia's needs on the battlefield in Ukraine, dependence on Iran reached its peak a year after the war began, but since then China and North Korea have taken over.
In 2023, it was North Korea that became a key supplier of ammunition, missiles and even people. And at the recent Victory Day parade in Moscow, Putin "publicly hugged and thanked North Korean generals for their support".
China has an even more powerful influence, providing Russia with "dual-use goods and weapons components". Currently, "the construction of the Russian-Chinese logistics complex in Alabuga" is underway, which is expected to increase Beijing's involvement in drone production, including new models such as the Harpy-A1 and Harpy-3.
Despite the Israeli-Iranian truce, "the future of Iran's nuclear programme and the whereabouts of its highly enriched uranium remain unclear". And Russia, which is stepping up its offensive in Ukraine, is unlikely to face pressure from the US to agree to a ceasefire.
"The Israeli-Iranian war - and the direct involvement of the United States in it - was unwelcome news for russia. It has upended Moscow's strategic calculations in the Middle East and revealed the limitations of its power projection. But this war will not make russia ease its pressure in Ukraine," the statement said.
