Belarus’ economy stagnates due to integration with Russia - FIS
The stagnation of the Russian economy limits the financial capabilities of Belarus.
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Censor.NET informs.
Thus, in the first half of 2025, Belarus' GDP grew by only 2.1%, which is 2.9 percentage points lower than a year earlier.
"Inflation reached 7.3%. The decline is attributed to the shock situation in agriculture (minus 8.1% year-on-year) and a decline in demand for Belarusian goods in russia, a key trading partner that accounts for 60% of trade turnover. Deliveries of consumer goods, equipment and lumber to rf decreased by more than 70%.
The foreign trade deficit increased to $856 million in January-April: exports decreased by 0.3%, while imports increased by 4.7%. Industrial production grew by only 0.3%, supported by domestic demand. The stagnation of the Russian economy (minus 4 % year-on-year in the first quarter) limits Minsk's financial capacity. The deteriorating balance of payments fuels the risks of a rapid devaluation of the Belarusian ruble, which will affect purchasing power and social stability," the report said.
In addition, the FIS noted, Western sanctions limit diversification channels, strengthening the structural tie to Russian markets, logistics and financing.
The minimum growth rate will continue until the end of 2025 by inertia after 2024.
"In 2026-2027, the crisis will worsen due to falling household incomes and further dragging the Belarusian economy into the Russian stagflationary orbit," the FIS concluded.
