Russia is entering deep demographic crisis, - FIS
Russia is entering a new phase of deep demographic crisis, which is more dangerous than the one the Russian Federation experienced in the 1990s and 2000s.
This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to Censor.NET.
"While at that time the decline in birth rates and high mortality were offset by large-scale migration from the post-Soviet republics, this mechanism has now virtually disappeared. In the three decades since the collapse of the USSR, it was migration growth that made it possible to offset more than 70% of the natural population decline, but today Russia is losing its status as an attractive center for labor migrants," the report says.
Decline in birth rates
In 2024, only 1.22 million children were born in Russia, almost at the historic low of 1999. A further decline of 3-5% annually is expected in the coming years.
"To stabilize the situation, the birth rate would have to increase from the current 1.4 to at least 1.7–1.8, which is impossible in the context of war, economic stagnation, and weak social support. The situation is complicated by population outflow and losses in the war against Ukraine. In addition, the aging population and the decline in young labor resources are becoming a critical challenge for the pension system and healthcare: the share of citizens aged 65+ has reached 18% and continues to grow," the FIS explained.
They also noted that even ideological campaigns—such as banning the LGBT movement, restricting abortion, or anti-child rhetoric—are unable to boost the birth rate.
"In the absence of migration inflows, by 2100 the population of the Russian Federation could shrink to 90 million people, and in a pessimistic scenario, to 57 million. Thus, the country is ending the demographic cycle of the Putin era in much worse conditions than a quarter of a century ago, and future generations of Russian leaders will inherit a protracted crisis with devastating consequences for the economy and social sphere," they concluded.
