Russia’s offensive on Pokrovsk has exacerbated problem of shortage of fighters in Ukraine, - Atlantic Council
Russia's offensive on Pokrovsk has exposed a critical shortage of personnel in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. After more than three years of war, Kyiv is facing a lack of resources to hold the front line.
According to Censor.NET, this is reported by analysts of the Atlantic Council.
"After three and a half years of heroic and exceptionally bloody resistance, the fear is that Ukraine may now be approaching the point when the country no longer has enough fighters to effectively defend the full length of the front lines in Europe’s largest war since World War II," the publication states.
Ukraine's problems with mobilisation
This week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy openly assessed the situation in the Pokrovsk direction: "Ukrainian troops on the Pokrovsk front are currently outnumbered eight to one by Russian forces."
Analysts note that mobilisation problems in Ukraine are not new and have been growing throughout most of the war. At the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, an unprecedented influx of volunteers allowed the Armed Forces to quickly grow to approximately one million personnel. However, as the war dragged on, the pace of mobilisation slowed significantly. Some units have tried to remedy the situation through advertising campaigns, and employees of territorial recruitment and social support centres (TRCs) are detaining men of conscription age on the streets, but this does not solve the problem globally.
The political decision not to lower the draft age from 25 to 18 has been criticised both within the country and among Western partners. At the same time, the government has tried to encourage young people to serve through incentive programmes for volunteers aged 18-25, but these measures have not yet filled the gaps in frontline units.
Another factor that has exacerbated the crisis is the easing of departure restrictions for young men. According to the British newspaper Daily Telegraph, after the lifting of some restrictions, nearly 100,000 Ukrainian men aged 18–22 left the country in about two months. This not only created a military shortage, but also exacerbated staffing problems in the economy and critical sectors.
Russia and its mobilisation strategy
Moscow is also facing problems in replenishing its troops for the invasion of Ukraine amid catastrophic losses that exceed the number of casualties in any other Russian war since 1945. President Vladimir Putin attempted to address this problem through a partial mobilisation in September 2022, but it proved extremely unpopular and led to nearly a million young Russians leaving the country.
To compensate for the shortage of personnel, the Kremlin has introduced a system of generous financial incentives, including large signing bonuses and high monthly salaries, which allows it to attract approximately 30,000 new recruits to the Russian army every month.
Analysts note that under such conditions, Russia's advantage in manpower over Ukraine can only grow over time. This is already noticeable on the front line, which is about a thousand kilometres long: Russian troops are exploiting gaps in Ukraine's defences and advancing in several directions. Although they have not yet achieved any major breakthroughs, Russia's territorial gains are accumulating gradually but steadily.
The situation in the Pokrovsk direction and the Kremlin's reaction
The most intense fighting is currently taking place in the Donetsk region, where Russia is attempting to capture Pokrovsk. If Putin's commanders succeed in taking the city, many will see this as confirmation of the Kremlin's strategy, which is based on victory and the exceptional strength of the Russian army. The Russian president is convinced that he can win the war simply by crushing Ukraine, and if Pokrovsk is captured, he will consider Kyiv's chronic shortage of soldiers as the most compelling evidence that time is on his side.
And there are no easy solutions for Zelenskyy. Analysts note that lowering the draft age will trigger a new wave of recruits, but will lower the morale of the Ukrainian people. Reforming military service conditions to provide stricter guarantees of rotation, as well as adopting a more meritocratic approach to appointing army commanders, could help restore shaken public confidence and attract more volunteers, but this will take time, which Ukraine critically lacks.
"For now, the battle-hardened but exhausted and outnumbered Ukrainian army has little choice but to remain in a defensive posture. Ukraine’s commanders must be prepared to cede ground when necessary in order to preserve precious fighting strength, while looking for opportunities to maximize enemy casualties," analysts conclude, believing that the AFU must hold back the onslaught of Russian troops until Russian heavy losses on the front lines, the escalation of long-range strikes on Russian territory, and economic problems, which will eventually worsen, force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.
