Ukraine’s energy system is on verge of collapse due to Russian attacks, WP reports
A wave of massive Russian attacks is pushing Ukraine's energy grid to the brink of collapse. Moscow is seeking to demoralize Ukraine, while the White House is pressuring Kyiv to sign a peace agreement.
This is reported by The Washington Post, citing officials and analysts, according to Censor.NET.
Blows to the energy sector
Russia launched a series of drone and missile attacks on energy infrastructure in October, resulting in significant power shortages across the country as winter cold weather set in.
People familiar with the situation said the strikes threaten to completely disable the power transmission systems from the west—where most of Ukraine's electricity is currently produced—to the east. This would effectively divide the country in two.
"We are, if not on the verge of a complete power cut in the east of the country, then very close to it," said a senior European diplomat.
Experts agree that it is almost impossible to predict exactly how many attacks Russia would need to carry out to achieve its goal of completely cutting off electricity to part of the country, including Kyiv, as this would depend on which targets are hit and whether Ukraine has the spare capacity to quickly restore power.
"Nevertheless, Ukraine, which has long suffered from energy attacks, is undoubtedly in one of the worst situations. The bombings have also weakened the already limited air defense capabilities, exposing serious vulnerabilities that could complicate the protection of the rest of the network," the publication writes.
Energy truce
WP notes that one of the solutions proposed by Kyiv could be an energy truce, under which Russia would cease attacks on energy infrastructure and Ukraine would cease attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure.
However, last week Moscow stated that it was not prepared to consider such a move.
"Although hours-long power outages, dark streets, and the noise of diesel generators are commonplace in wartime Kyiv, this winter's attacks appear to be more consistent and targeted," the authors noted.
Deputy Minister of Energy of Ukraine Mykola Kolisnyk said that in November, Russia launched about 5,000 drones and missiles, compared to 2,000 per month at the beginning of the year, including hundreds of drones and dozens of missiles targeting power plants, power grids, and gas infrastructure, often focusing on a specific region.
Russian tactics
Kolisnyk noted that Russia is currently attacking Ukraine more frequently, so there is not enough time to repair the damage.
"We are responding as quickly as possible, but it is becoming increasingly difficult," said Maksym Tymchenko, CEO of DTEK. "We have lost a significant part of our capacity. The key task now is to find replacement equipment in different parts of Europe that we can quickly deliver to Ukraine. The most important parts are transformers and gas compressors."
In addition to dividing Ukraine's power grid in half, the Kremlin is also "implementing another strategy of creating (energy) islands," said a European diplomat, whereby individual regions will be cut off from any electricity supply.
Ukrainian regions on the front line or near the Russian border are suffering even more, officials say.
Despite constant attacks, the network is still holding up.
"We are now one step away from a (complete) blackout in Kyiv," said one person familiar with the situation.
