Minsk’s military and political dependence on Moscow is growing, - SAB report
The Russian Federation is tightening its control over domestic political processes in Belarus in order to minimize the risks of regime change and adjust its foreign policy course.
According to Censor.NET with a reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service, this is stated in the annual report of the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB).
Russia blocks Belarus' attempts to get closer to the EU
As noted by the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau, the platform for this is a union state, where the actions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are actively coordinated and integration programs are implemented. Moscow is reacting more and more sharply even to minimal attempts by Minsk to pursue a more independent policy, in particular to restore economic contacts with Europe, which automatically reduces Russian influence.
According to SAB estimates, a change of power in Belarus without Kremlin approval is seen as a threat, so Moscow is seeking to ensure that the next leader remains structurally dependent on a pro-Russian course. Despite the lack of direct control over Lukashenko's policies, both sides are trying to avoid a repeat of the 2020 protests. Russia will block any steps by Minsk to move closer to the EU if they conflict with its interests.
Economic cooperation between the two regimes is increasingly taking on a military character.
- About 500 Belarusian enterprises are integrated into the military production of the Russian Federation.
- including a project for a drone factory with a capacity of up to 100,000 units per year.
- Belarus supplies approximately 480,000 artillery and missile munitions for Russian systems annually.
SAB emphasizes that the war against Ukraine has confirmed that Belarus' civilian economy is effectively working for Moscow's military needs, allowing the regime to avoid direct involvement in hostilities while reaping economic benefits. In the long term, Minsk's role in Russia's military-industrial plans will only grow.
