56% of Ukrainian refugees will remain in Europe if ’fragile peace’ is achieved, - UN
The number of refugees from Ukraine who will remain in Europe by the end of 2029 will be 2.9 million, or 56% of their current number, under the "fragile peace with concessions" scenario in the war with Russia this year.
This is stated in the findings of a study by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), according to Censor.NET.
The "fragile peace" scenario
For example, one of the study’s scenarios models a situation in which Russia retains de facto control over the temporarily occupied territories, investment levels in areas controlled by the Ukrainian government remain at moderate or high levels, and the temporary protection status for Ukrainian refugees in the EU expires in March 2027
It is projected that, in this scenario, 2.9 million Ukrainian refugees (56% of the current total) will remain in Europe by the end of 2029.
In addition, it is projected that in the "fragile peace" scenario, the distribution of refugees who do not return to Ukraine will be geographically uneven: more than half of the current number of refugees will remain in some countries of Western and Northern Europe, while less than half will remain in some countries of Central and Eastern Europe.
The "war of attrition" scenario
Under a scenario of ongoing war or a "status quo," there will be 5.16 million refugees from Ukraine in Europe by the end of 2029, or 99% of their current number.
"Ukraine's Victory" Scenario
Under the third scenario, which assumes a Ukrainian victory and the return of the occupied territories by the end of this year, the number of refugees could drop to 32%.
Scenarios are not predictive
"These scenarios are not predictive. Rather, they provide a structured, methodologically sound way to examine how decision-making and refugee behavior might change in response to various possible future events, based on a range of data," the study’s authors clarified.
