Putin may test NATO this fall: US intelligence releases new assessments - WSJ
U.S. intelligence agencies have revised their assessments regarding the likelihood of a direct conflict between Russia and the North Atlantic Alliance.
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing new reports from U.S. officials, the Kremlin may resort to a limited provocation against one of the NATO countries without waiting for the war in Ukraine to end, reports Censor.NET.
Details
According to analysts, the window of opportunity for possible Russian actions opens this fall and extends through 2029.
The main objective of a potential attack is to test the effectiveness of Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense and to attempt to provoke a rift within the Alliance.
Various scenarios are being considered—ranging from large-scale cyberattacks and the deployment of unidentified armed groups to occupy specific areas to a limited ground invasion on NATO’s eastern flank.
The likelihood of the most extreme scenario—a localized ground invasion—is currently assessed as relatively low, but analysts note that it is increasing over time.
Facing pressure due to significant losses on the front lines and systematic strikes by Ukrainian drones on military and oil infrastructure, the Russian leader may seek "successes" in other areas.
In addition, the WSJ notes that this threat arises against the backdrop of a shortage of certain types of weapons within the United States itself, specifically long-range precision-guided missiles, tactical systems, and Stinger man-portable air defense systems. This complicates the task of deterring two potential adversaries—Russia in Europe and China in Asia
