Due to Ukrainian drone strikes, Russians’ confidence in future of Russian Federation has fallen to level seen in early 1990s
Regular raids by Ukrainian drones, the protracted war against Ukraine and the deteriorating economic situation have drastically altered the mood among Russians. The proportion of Russian citizens who expect ‘difficult times’ ahead for their country has risen to levels last seen in the early 1990s.
According to Censor.NET, Russian media outlets report this, citing data from the state-run All-Russian Centre for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM).
66 per cent of Russians expect ‘hard times’
According to the results of a VTsIOM poll, in July 2026, 66 per cent of Russians believed that ‘difficult times’ lay ahead for their country.
Since the start of the year, the proportion of citizens with a pessimistic outlook has risen by 16 percentage points – in fact, by a third.
The current figure is one of the worst in the entire modern history of Russia. According to VTsIOM’s own data, 66–67 per cent of citizens expected ‘hard times’ in 1991 – a few months before the collapse of the USSR – and in 1992, when the population faced a sharp decline in living standards and hyperinflation.
Even in the mid-1990s, the level of pessimism was lower: depending on the year, between 46 per cent and 60 per cent of those surveyed expected difficulties ahead.
The highest figure was recorded only in April 2020 – at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. At that time, the proportion of pessimists reached 72 per cent.
Ukrainian strikes are changing perceptions of the war within the Russian Federation
One of the factors cited as contributing to the deterioration in public sentiment is Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian territory, the effects of which are being felt increasingly by ordinary Russians.
John Law, a senior research fellow at the NEST Centre, noted that Ukrainian attacks, which have caused problems in the Russian fuel market and damaged major logistics facilities, are affecting public sentiment – particularly in large cities.
According to him, more and more Russians are beginning to ask why they need this war.
"As the number of attacks has increased over the last nine to twelve months, many have realised that this is a long war and there is no end in sight," said Lowe.
The ‘security’ promised by Putin is fading away
Russian political analyst Abbas Gallyamov points out that Vladimir Putin once built his political legitimacy, in particular, on promises of security and stability; however, the war is now increasingly spilling over into Russia itself.
According to him, at present, neither Russian military personnel nor residents of the Moscow region can feel safe during night-time drone attacks, nor can holidaymakers at Russian resorts or staff at logistics facilities that have been hit.
Thus, in the fifth year of the full-scale war against Ukraine, pessimism about the future of the Russian Federation has, according to a Russian state-run sociological centre, returned to the levels seen during the collapse of the Soviet Union.
