Forced mobilization in occupied parts of Ukraine as example of genocide - conclusions of study
The occupation administrations of the Russian Federation in the occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions systematically prepared forced mobilization long before the full-scale invasion.
For several years, the Russians have been carrying out systematic preparations to conscript hundreds of thousands of men. However, the consequences of such actions, both economic and demographic, indicate that forced mobilisation is a form of ethnic genocide against Ukrainians.
This is stated in a study by the Ukrainian "Institute for Strategic Studies and Security" and the "Eastern Human Rights Group" entitled "Forced Mobilisation of Workers in the Russian-Occupied Territory of Ukraine".
First steps
According to Pavlo Lysianskyi, a director of the Ukrainian "Institute for Strategic Studies and Security", since 2014, illegal armed groups have been created in these territories, and infrastructure has been developed to prepare the local population to participate in hostilities against Ukraine, including education.
It all started after the occupation of certain districts of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine in 2014 by the Russian Federation. Illegal armed groups - "people's militias" - were created to conduct hostilities in the occupied territories, which were controlled by the Russian Federation in the self-proclaimed "Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics". In 2015, the "people's militia of the Luhansk People's Republic" was renamed the 2nd Guards Luhansk-Sieverodonetsk Army Corps of the People's Militia of the "LPR" (2 AK), which was established on 7 October 2014 and existed until 31 December 2022. Similarly, the "people's militia of the Donetsk People's Republic" was established on 12 November 2014 and lasted until 31 December 2022.
As early as February 2015, the "LPR military commissar" Igor Marshuba reported that "since the second half of November 2014, more than 4,500 volunteers have joined the ranks of the people's militia on a contractual basis", and in October 2015, according to him, "LPR military commissariats recruited more than 20,000 servicemen on a contractual basis". In the occupied Donetsk region, there is no objective data on "voluntarily mobilised" people. However, in those years, the "DPR" military commissariat, after the announcement of "voluntary" mobilisation, stated that "every day we recruit 100 to 120 volunteers aged 18 to 50", without specifying the total number of volunteers who joined the ranks of the "DPR NM".
Lysianskyi emphasises that the so-called "people's militia" was initially trained for military operations. For example, in August 2018, Lieutenant Colonel Andriy Marochko, a representative of the 2nd Army Corps of the "LPR", stated that "all military tasks of the people's militia of the Luhansk People's Republic can be fully performed with the current staffing of the units".
Similar statements were made by the leaders of the "DPR" in the occupied Donetsk region, who claimed that the staff was 96-97 per cent complete. However, as of the beginning of 2018, the estimated number of "LDPR people's militias" consisting of local residents, mercenaries and Russian military personnel in the occupied Luhansk region was 14.8 thousand people, and 35.5 thousand people in the occupied Donetsk region.
"So, the occupiers worked out a system for general mobilisation many years ago," says Lysianskyi.
"Laws of War"
Vira Yastrebova, director of the "Eastern Human Rights Group", says that the occupiers also prepared "legislative acts" to quickly mobilise most of the men in the occupied territories. In eight years, from 2014 to 2022, the occupiers issued 29 so-called laws regulating mobilisation activities. Thus, the first "law" was issued on 13 February 2015 - the so-called "Law of the People's Council of the DPR" "On Military Duty and Military Service'". Later, there were many improvements to the repressive apparatus. For example, in March 2021, the "LPR" adopted an amendment - the so-called "liability for failure to report information about citizens who are or are obliged to be registered for military service", meaning that a person had to report another person to the occupiers if he did not register for military service. For this "offence", a person was fined in the range of 1,000 to 5,000 rubles.
In addition, on 30 April 2021, criminal liability for "unauthorised abandonment of a unit or place of service and violation of the rules of combat duty" was increased in the occupied Donetsk region. In particular, the unauthorised leaving of a unit or place of service was punishable by arrest for up to six months or imprisonment for up to one year.
"At the same time, the occupiers were increasing pressure on young people and introducing militarised curricula. This is how children were forced to get used to war," says Yastrebova.
For example, starting from the age of 14, adolescents in the occupied territories were massively trained to participate in armed aggression against Ukraine under developed and implemented programmes that covered theoretical and practical classes: the basics of drill, the basics of hand-to-hand combat and self-defence techniques, the basics of firearms and tactical training, etc.
Starting in 2018, students in grades 10-11 of schools in the occupied territories began to pass the standards based on the results of the "Basic Military Training Course" at specially equipped military training grounds. At the training grounds, teenagers were trained in Kalashnikov rifle shooting, military medical training, and could also get acquainted with military equipment and small arms used by the "people's militias of the LDPR".
At the same time, cadet classes were created in the occupied territories, specialising in the military-patriotic education of teenagers.
The military-patriotic training programme was designed to last three years and included 648 hours of study. In order to further prepare for participation in the armed aggression against Ukraine, all the necessary conditions were created in higher education institutions in the occupied territories for the training of lieutenants of the "LDPR people's militias".
For example, in 2018, in the occupied part of Luhansk region, the number of cadet classes increased from 1 to 23, and in Donetsk, a "republican general educational institution School No. 4 - Cadet Corps" was established. Cadet education in the occupied territories was organised for middle and high school students. Both boys and girls studied in such classes. The educational process in Cossack cadet classes differed significantly from general education classes - these are full-day classes where teenagers stay from morning to evening, and the afternoon is devoted to the educational component - drill and physical, tactical and special training.
Experts cite the following figure: from 2014 to early 2022, 1.73 million schoolchildren in the occupied territories of Luhansk and Donetsk regions received education according to Russian standards and underwent "ideological education based on traditional Russian spiritual and moral values" in schools (601,361 in the "LPR" and 1,129,458 in the "DPR").
In total, 5,153 patriotic events took place in the occupied region, where adolescents from the "DPR" were taught "love for the Motherland, devotion to their homeland, the desire to serve its interests and readiness, up to self-sacrifice, to defend it". These activities involved 1,608,872 adolescents living in the occupied territory of Donetsk region.
"The militarisation of children in the occupied parts is a deliberate policy of the Kremlin to cultivate a 'generation of war' and ideological hatred of Ukraine and the collective West," Yastrebova said.
Large-scale training
The mobilisation processes and recruitment of men to the occupation army in the occupied parts began long before the full-scale invasion. To carry out mobilisation activities and register residents living in the temporarily occupied territories, 25 military commissariats were established - 11 in the occupied Luhansk and 14 in the occupied Donetsk regions.
All of them were constantly preparing for the war and training, Lysianskyi notes. For example, in 2018, the temporarily occupied territories started holding meetings of reservists of the "LDPR people's militia".
During the first training meetings for reservists, tactical exercises were conducted to improve cohesion in the units. In particular, under the guidance of "officers of the DPR Armed Forces, exercises were conducted on equipment and combat shooting"
In total, between 2018 and 2022, 14 decrees were issued by the heads of the occupation administrations in the occupied territories on the holding meetings of the reservists of the "LDPR people's militias".
As early as January 2015, the "DPR military commissariat" began inviting citizens who had reached the age of 18 to enlist for military service under a contract. Starting from the end of 2017, military departments started graduating junior lieutenants prepared for the armed aggression against Ukraine: in October 2017, 94 students who graduated from the programme for training officers of artillery units at the military department of Luhansk National University named after Volodymyr Dahl and 35 students of Luhansk National University named after Taras Shevchenko were awarded the rank of junior lieutenant.
"The Russians were preparing the basis for forced mobilisation, and graduates of military departments and students in general were among the first waves of those mobilised in February 2022," Lysianskyi says.
Mobilisation in the Kremlin style
Active preparations for mobilisation in the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions began on 19 February 2022, five days before Russia's full-scale offensive against Ukraine. On that day, the heads of the occupation administrations of Donetsk and Luhansk regions announced general mobilisation. For this purpose, they signed so-called "decrees" in the occupied parts. The essence of these "decrees" was to conduct general mobilisation of people in the temporarily occupied parts of Ukraine and to ban men aged 18 to 55 from leaving the occupied territory of the region.
On 22 February 2022, another "decree of the head of the DPR" was issued on the conscription of citizens born in 1995-2004 for military service under mobilisation. This meant that even 18-year-old boys were mobilised. A little later, in March 2022, the upper age threshold for mobilisation in the occupied territories of Donetsk region was raised to 65 years (previously it was 55 years).
In March 2022, it became known that Russia was using mobilised people from the occupied parts of Luhansk and Donetsk regions in several areas of the war. This mainly concerned the military capture of large cities: Mariupol, Rubizhne, Sieverodonetsk, etc.
Forcibly mobilised persons were also brought to Crimea and sent to the frontline in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine.
Lysianskyi says that it was at this time that they began to use young people and students. For example, in the middle of spring 2022, in occupied Donetsk, the Russian occupation authorities forcibly mobilised more than 100 medical students.
For example, residents of Donetsk who were students, Oleksii Trusov and Mykyta Baienko, received a call from a Donetsk institute and were asked to report to the military commissariat as students "only for the parade". After Oleksii Trusov and Mykyta Baienko arrived at the military enlistment office, they were mobilised and sent to the front. Then they were captured by the Ukrainian armed forces.
Mobilisation was carried out at industrial enterprises. For example, Eduard Liha, an employee of the Makiivka Iron and Steel Works, was forcibly mobilised in March 2022.
For some time, he was kept in the military commissariat in Makiivka, he was not allowed to leave the building, and then immediately taken to Kherson region, from where he was transferred to Mykolaiv region directly to the frontline.
Experts say that there was not a single segment of the economy that was not affected by the forced mobilisation. By order of the local occupation authorities, mobilisation activities were carried out against men of military age from 18 to 55 years old, and enterprises were obliged to provide 50% of their employees of military age for mobilisation.
However, according to the DIU data obtained by the project analysts, this figure should be considered an underestimate, as in practice, from 80 per cent to 100 per cent of full-time employees at individual enterprises were subject to conscription. In the absence of a sufficient number of men who could be mobilised, the occupation authorities conducted raids both at their places of residence and at enterprises in the temporarily occupied territories ("Donetskteplomerezha", "Elektroremont", "Donetsk Metallurgical Plant", "Yenakiyevo Metallurgical Plant", "Alchevsk Metallurgical Plant", "Luhansk Meat Processing Plant", "Skhidvugillya", and about 30 coal mines, etc.)
Mobilisation was active. For example, the number of forcibly mobilised employees of enterprises between February 2022 and April 2022 reached 30,000, which is about 10% of the total number of those mobilised over the entire mobilisation period. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, almost 75% of male employees have been mobilised from enterprises operating in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk Oblast. Railway engineers, musicians, teachers and others were also subject to mobilisation.
According to the SSU, as of June 2023, more than 140,000 people were mobilised in the temporarily occupied territory of Donetsk region alone. As of the summer of 2024, the total number of people mobilised, according to the SSU, was over 300,000. The process of forced mobilisation itself was massive and repressive, with ordinary people being grabbed in the streets and sent to the front without training as human shields for the regular Russian army.
Because the forcibly mobilised had neither proper training nor normal military equipment, the number of people killed is estimated at hundreds of thousands.
It is estimated that the total number of deaths among those forcibly mobilised is over 100,000. Given that the number of wounded is twice as high as the number of dead, the total losses could reach more than 300,000 people, including the wounded, missing and deserters.
"This figure illustrates the inhumane nature of the tactics used by the Russian military, where the fate of the mobilised has become expendable. The use of people forcibly mobilised from the occupied territories continues to be a tragic page of this war, demonstrating complete disregard for human life and the basic principles of military ethics of the Russian Federation," Lysianskyi said.
Consequences of forced mobilisation
The number of people killed as a result of forced mobilisation can be indirectly seen in the staff shortage in the occupied areas. After the start of the full-scale invasion, the dynamics of the need for workers in the occupied region also began to change: in 2022, 17.9 thousand job seekers were registered; the number of vacancies received from employers increased to 37.9 thousand, including 22.16 thousand for blue-collar jobs.
Already in 2023, only 367 jobseekers were registered with the "LPR" Employment Centre, while the number of vacancies received from employers was 29.75 thousand, and the need of employers in working specialities was 19.03 thousand people. As of mid-2024, 4.99 thousand people were registered with the "LPR" employment centre; the number of vacancies submitted by employers was 24.59 thousand, while only 5.218 thousand people were employed.
The occupiers also recognise the problems. For example, the occupation administration of the "LPR" stated that "in 2022, 58 per cent of miners were mobilised, and today about three (!) people work at one of the mines, where more than three hundred should be working".
Other industries are also suffering. As of July 2024, in the occupied territory of Luhansk region, the bus driver staff for city and intercity passenger transportation was only 1/3 full. In the "municipal transport enterprise MUP "Luhanskmisktrans", the staff of drivers is filled by 30% of the staff. As of August 2024, more than 1,500 medical positions are vacant in the occupied territory of Luhansk Oblast alone: the region is in dire need of medical specialists such as rheumatologists, pulmonologists, endocrinologists, as well as general practitioners such as therapists and surgeons.
According to a report on economic prospects written by the so-called "scientists" of the "Institute for Economic Research" in occupied Donetsk, the future of the region is bleak - the forecast for the next ten years shows a negative development of the economic situation and will lead to indicators lower than before 2013.
Yastrebova says that forced mobilisation has a major impact on demographics. This applies not only to the number of men killed and injured, but also to the ratio of deaths to births. Thus, as of 2022, in the occupied Donetsk region, the death rate is 16.7 per 1,000 people, and the birth rate is 2.4 per 1,000 people. For comparison, in 2014, at the outbreak of the war in Donbas, these figures were 15.9 and 7.5 respectively. It is important to mention here that the so-called "Total Fertility Rate" (TFR) was underestimated even before the full-scale invasion. For example, as of 2020, the TFR in the occupied Donbas was 0.8, while in Ukraine, the figure was 1.4, and in the world - 2.4. But with the start of forced mobilisation, this factor has deteriorated sharply.
"You can see how the population decline is increasing and is almost irreversible. According to scientists working for the so-called local 'authorities', if current trends continue, the population in the occupied territories of Donbas will die out completely in 50-70 years," Yastrebova said.
Lysianskyi supports this view, noting that the staff shortage is so great that the occupiers are now planning to import miners from Kuzbass, as there is no one to work in the few remaining mines.
"Forced mobilisation is the extermination of Ukrainians, and in the most open and brutal form that the Kremlin has implemented in the occupied territory. But at the same time, it is also an example that shows us what would happen to Ukraine if the Russians seized the entire country - total terror and destruction," Lysianskyi concludes.
Maksym Butchenko for Censor.Net
