Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine, - ISW
The invasion of the Belarusian army into Ukraine is extremely unlikely.
This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to data from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The institute believes that the Kremlin's pressure on Belarus to support Russian aggression in Ukraine is part of long-term efforts aimed at consolidating further control over Belarus.
The ISW report notes that the Kremlin has increased pressure on Alexander Lukashenko to formalize Belarus' integration into the Union State following Belarusian protests in 2020 and 2021. In particular, Russia has sought to establish a permanent military base in Belarus and establish direct control over the Belarusian military and has regularly sought to use its influence over Belarusian security and military affairs to pressure Belarus into supporting its invasion of Ukraine.
According to ISW, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Lukashenko on December 3 to further strengthen bilateral security ties, probably in the context of the Russian-Belarusian Union State.
Analysts of the institute believe that Belarus is unlikely to invade Ukraine due to internal dynamics in the country. ISW has previously assessed that Lukashenko has no intention of going to war in Ukraine due to the possibility of renewed internal unrest if his security apparatus is weakened by involvement in the war in Ukraine. Analysts noted that in 2020 and 2021, Lukashenko relied on elements of the Belarusian armed forces as an adjunct to the Belarusian security services to quell popular protests against his rule.
"The involvement of much of this security apparatus in the war in Ukraine is likely to leave Lukashenko vulnerable to further unrest and opposition.
Lukashenko also probably realizes that an invasion of Ukraine will undermine his authority as the leader of a sovereign country, as it will become obvious that Russia's efforts to ensure full control over Belarus have been successful," the analysts emphasized.
At the same time, ISW believes that the entry of Belarus into the war in the worst case will force Ukraine to temporarily divert personnel and equipment from the current front line. For example, Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Oleksii Hromov said earlier that 15,000 Belarusian servicemen and up to 9,000 Russian servicemen stationed in Belarus could theoretically take part in the war with Ukraine. However, analysts are convinced that even if Lukashenko mobilizes a significantly larger number of his troops to attack Ukraine, the Belarusian military will still be a small force that will not be able to achieve significant operational success.
According to ISW, a Russian or Belarusian offensive from Belarus will not be able to cut Ukrainian logistics lines to the West.
"The Belarusian invasion will not be able to make such a breakthrough, just as it will not be able to seriously threaten Kyiv. In the worst case, the entry of Belarus into the war will distract Ukrainian forces from the current front line in eastern Ukraine," the institute's report says.
