Russians transfer reinforcements near Ocheretyne, Ukrainian brigades are struggling to hold defensive positions under continuous fire - Forbes
The situation of the exhausted Ukrainian brigades in the Ocheretyne area is desperate. The fact that the Ukrainians will lose several villages around the axis in this area is a given.
According to Censor.NET, Forbes writes about this.
"Six days after breaking through Ukrainian positions west of Avdiivka, Russian brigades, and regiments are slowly widening their gap - a five-mile deep knife wound that plunges into Ukrainian territory, with its tip resting on the village of Ocheretyne. The situation of the exhausted Ukrainian brigades in the area is desperate. It is safe to say that the Ukrainians will lose several villages around the Ocheretyne axis," the article says.
Forbes journalists point out that the real danger is a situation in which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have no choice but to cut their losses, retreat a few kilometers to the west, and re-establish themselves on a new defensive line.
"This retreat could result in the surrender of tens of square miles of territory and force hundreds of civilians to flee or accept living under a brutal occupation. Worse, a retreat - if done poorly - would give the Russians the opportunity to redouble their localized attacks and achieve a second, third or fourth breakthrough, which, like a chain reaction, could trigger a wider Ukrainian collapse," the article says.
Russian invaders number more than 10,000 soldiers, who are opposed by only 3,000 Ukrainians
The Russian command has moved the 15th and 74th Motorized Rifle Brigades, as well as units of the 90th Tank Division and special forces, to their original positions. They are opposed by at least seven Ukrainian brigades and a separate battalion: The 23rd, 25th, 47th, 100th, and 115th mechanized brigades, the 25th Air Assault Brigade, the 3rd Assault Brigade, and the 425th Assault Battalion. Brigades are usually deployed one battalion at a time. Thus, the Russian occupiers have more than 10,000 soldiers, who are opposed by only 3,000 Ukrainians.
Defending is easier than attacking, even if the attacker has the advantage in firepower, so the Russians are not guaranteed to win the battle and force the Ukrainians to retreat, the newspaper notes.
"Having penetrated five miles into Ukrainian territory, the westernmost Russian troops are essentially alone and far from the main supply lines. They are vulnerable. If the Ukrainian forces can starve them out before Russian reinforcements can extend their advance and strengthen their logistics, the Russians could lose this battle," Forbes writes.
Although such an optimistic outcome is possible, a more realistic scenario is that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to retreat to the West with a fight, Forbes believes.
On 27 April, the spokesman for the Khortytsia unit, Nazar Voloshyn, said that the Defence Forces controlled two-thirds of Ocheretyne. Heavy fighting is currently taking place there.
