Ukraine must turn tide on frontline before sitting down to negotiate - Foreign Affairs
To gain leverage, Kyiv needs a stable front in Donbas and Western security guarantees.
According to Censor.NET, Foreign Affairs writes about this.
The publication notes that Western partners are increasingly pushing Kyiv to negotiate. This could lead to dangerous consequences for the country. Jack Watling, a senior research fellow in land warfare at the Royal United Institute for Defense Studies, believes that it is dangerous for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia now. According to him, this could lead to the Russians resuming offensive operations and changing the situation at the front.
The analyst assessed the Ukrainian Armed Forces' operation in the Kursk region and noted that it had three main goals: a demonstration of force to Western partners, an attempt to distract the Russian army from Donbas, and the seizure of enemy territory in case of negotiations.
Watling added that the first goal of the Kursk operation was achieved. The second has failed, as the Russians continue to advance in Donbas. The third goal can be achieved if Ukraine manages to keep Russian territories under its control.
In addition, it will be difficult to resolve a number of important issues during the negotiations. In particular, control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which was occupied by the Russians in March 2022.
Sanctions are another important subject of negotiations. Ukraine and its Western partners want them to remain in place after the war is over, but they will likely have to make some concessions.
The analyst added that Ukraine and Russia are still making incompatible demands on each other. The most likely condition for negotiations could be a ceasefire without a broader peace agreement.
Russia may demand that Ukraine renounce any military agreements with the West. Kyiv, on the other hand, will insist that Moscow return all the seized territories.
The main risk for Ukraine is that its partners may reduce their support after the talks. If Kyiv is left with a low level of mobilization and no prospects for significant foreign investment, Russia could resume offensive operations at any time.
Wotling emphasized that Kyiv needs to engage a coalition of Western troops backed by the United States after the ceasefire agreement. The failure of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom pledged to support Ukraine's territorial sovereignty, suggests that the need for a foreign military presence is justified.
In order for Russia to agree to this condition, the European defense industry needs to show that it can equip and support the deployed forces. Therefore, Europe will have to increase its defense investments.
"After almost three years of full-scale war, Ukraine is in a better position than its partners expected. Despite the potential reluctance to sign Zelensky's Victory Plan, Europe and the United States need to act quickly and in a coordinated manner in order not to lose vital leverage over Russia and end the conflict as soon as possible," the newspaper writes.
As a reminder, Zelensky said that Ukraine should sit "equally" at the table with Russia during negotiations. He emphasized that Ukraine needs enough weapons and an invitation to join NATO.
