Potential peace deal could be disaster for Ukraine - Politico
A possible peace agreement between the United States, Ukraine and Russia may temporarily stop the war, but in the absence of reliable security guarantees, it will be just another step in the Kremlin's strategy to take over Ukraine.
According to Censor.NET, this was written by columnist Jamie Dettmer in his column for Politico.
In his opinion, the agreement is "ugly" and predictable: it does not guarantee long-term security, does not provide for proper accountability of Moscow for war crimes, and actually legitimises Ukraine's territorial losses.
The observer notes that despite Donald Trump's promises to quickly resolve the war in Ukraine, he has not yet managed to reach a truce, let alone an agreement that would permanently end the conflict. However, it seems that the US administration hopes that this week the situation will change.
"But if the U.S. does manage to engineer a ceasefire, there should be grave doubts it will be the final word on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s revanchism," the analyst stresses.
In addition, Dettmer draws attention to Trump's soft attitude towards Putin, in contrast to his criticism of Zelenskyy. US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has been voicing pro-Kremlin talking points, even claiming that Putin "prayed for Trump" after the assassination attempt. It was only after the large-scale shelling of Kyiv last week that Trump openly addressed Putin for the first time: "Vladimir, STOP!" and threatened him with sanctions.
However, no shift on the part of the Kremlin has been recorded. On the contrary, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has tightened his demands: recognition of Crimea as Russia's, Ukraine's refusal to join NATO, lifting of sanctions and Moscow's retention of the seized territories. In exchange, Kyiv is promised "reliable security guarantees" from European allies, but no details have been made public.
The US, according to the draft agreement, will receive a share of profits from Ukrainian minerals and control over energy supplies through the Zaporizhzhia NPP. Dettmer believes that such an agreement is disastrous:
"Kyiv will emerge from this brutal war dismembered, it will also have no credible security guarantee, as Washington is declining to backstop the Europeans. There will be no accountability for documented Russian war crimes, nor will there be any clear compensation from Moscow, as far as we know, for the damage it inflicted."
According to experts, the agreement sets a dangerous precedent - for the first time since World War II, borders are being redrawn by force. The West, according to former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, had a chance to stop Putin back in 2022, but lost it because of indecision.
Without genuine security guarantees, the new agreement risks becoming a "second Budapest Memorandum". In addition to external threats, the agreement carries risks of internal instability. Giving up some of the territories would require constitutional amendments and a referendum, which could lead to a political crisis within the country.
According to Dettmer, the Kremlin will take this into account to try to complete the deal militarily again.
