Frontline unlikely to shift significantly in near term, but Russia may step up attacks on Ukraine’s energy system this winter – Estonian intelligence
Russia is likely to step up strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure during the coming winter, seeking to inflict maximum harm on the civilian population and it now has more resources to do so than before.
Censor.NET, citing ERR, reported that Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defence Forces’ intelligence centre, said this.
Thus, Kiviselg said the course of the fighting is unlikely to change significantly in the near term. Russian forces will continue to apply pressure along the entire front line, seeking local tactical gains.
"Overall, Ukraine’s defensive lines are holding, and there are no signs that the Russian Federation will achieve a major breakthrough in the coming weeks," he added.
Frustrated by military setbacks, Russian propagandists are calling for strikes on Ukraine’s critical energy infrastructure to inflict maximum harm on the civilian population.
"Despite the public outcry, such a scenario remains highly likely. First, it aligns with an established seasonal tactic of destroying Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Second, Russia’s capabilities to carry out these operations are growing. This is evidenced by an increase in long-range strike systems used for deep strikes," Kiviselg said.
He warned that asymmetric Russian actions aimed at disrupting the stable operation of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants should be regarded as extremely serious and dangerous.
"The aim of these actions is to trigger a large-scale sabotage and distract the resources of the Ukrainian authorities and international partners who are supporting Ukraine. Dealing with the aftermath of a major nuclear accident and regional radioactive contamination would require mobilising all of the country’s internal resources and would lead to the suspension of defensive operations. It would also require massive international humanitarian assistance, the delivery of which would be associated with an extremely high security risk because of hostile Russian actions," Kiviselg stressed.
