Ukraine is experiencing its deepest political crisis since start of full-scale invasion, - Economist
A major corruption scandal in the upper echelons of power is escalating into the biggest political crisis in Ukraine since Russian troops advanced on Kyiv in February 2022.
According to Censor.NET, The Economist reports this, citing government sources.
The publication suggests that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was "stunned" by the scale of the allegations against members of his inner circle. It is noted that the president has already taken the first steps to distance himself from certain figures involved in the corruption investigation. On 18 November, the Verkhovna Rada is to consider the resignation of Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister Herman Halushchenko.
However, the coming days could be decisive: according to sources, a number of influential figures are persuading the president to abandon his most controversial allies in order to minimise political risks for both himself and the state.
Sources close to the investigation report that the investigation has not yet established the level of awareness of senior officials about corruption schemes that provided for a 10-15% kickback on contracts with Energoatom.
According to the sources, these practices may date back to the early 2000s, long before Volodymyr Zelenskyy came to power. Some of the individuals currently linked to the scheme, as well as one of the offices used for the syndicate's activities, have ties to former MP Andrii Derkach. He headed Energoatom in the 2000s, but left Ukraine in 2022 and is currently in Russia.
Well-informed sources believe that the president could not have been aware of all the details of the multi-level scheme, especially during the active phase of a full-scale war.
"If Zelenskyy had known the scale of the crimes, he would never have repealed the law in July that restricted the independence of NABU and SAPO," said a source close to the anti-corruption authorities.
Zelenskyy's political future
One Ukrainian intelligence official describes the situation as "a blow similar to an atomic bomb explosion." The proximity of his allies to the scandal could jeopardise his political future.
"The scandal threatens Ukraine's fight against Russia in two ways. Domestically, it risks increasing cynicism and prompting more soldiers to desert when the front line is already overstretched. Abroad, it makes it more difficult for Ukraine to ask for the aid it needs to continue the fight, estimated at around $100 billion a year," the article says.
Some in the West may interpret the new evidence of corruption not as proof of the work of independent bodies, but as an argument for reducing aid to Ukraine. Concerns have already been reported among several European diplomats.
The scandal has already led to the resignation of two ministers. The government has also announced a full audit of state-owned companies, but experts believe that it will be impossible to eliminate corruption without a large-scale and politically painful reset.
The publication notes that the head of the President's Office and one of the most influential people in the country, Andrii Yermak, is under particular pressure. Although he is not directly accused of involvement in the schemes, as the organiser of Zelenskyy's system, he is vulnerable due to the scale of the scandal. His subordinates claim that he is being unfairly "demonised".
There are no easy solutions
Anti-corruption agencies and the government have been in conflict since at least the summer, when there was an attempt to limit the powers of independent agencies. Now, after the information about the investigation has been made public, some of the individuals involved may begin to cooperate with law enforcement agencies by providing new information. Five people have already been arrested, and new arrests are expected.
The next stage of the investigation could last up to a year, which means that there will be no quick resolution to the crisis for the president. Sources close to anti-corruption agencies report that the investigation is focusing on the defence sector, one of the largest in the country.
This has already sparked debate among Ukraine's political elite. Some are calling for a complete overhaul of the government, while others see the situation as an opportunity for Zelenskyy to get rid of officials who, in their words, are "dragging him down."
"Zelenskyy is facing a day of reckoning. The choice is not great: either amputate the leg or let the infection spread throughout the body and die," says a high-ranking official.
