Russia has significantly increased production of shells, preparing for new conflicts, - Estonian intelligence
The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service reported that Russia has significantly increased its production of ammunition, indicating possible preparations for new military operations outside Ukraine.
This is stated in the Estonian intelligence report for 2026, according to Censor.NET with reference to UP.
Ammunition production increased 17-fold
According to estimates by the Estonian Security Police, Russian factories produced more than 7 million shells, mortar mines, and rockets in 2025, compared to 4.5 million in 2024. Overall, since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ammunition production in Russia has increased 17-fold, mainly due to the construction of new production facilities.
Details
The structure of production in 2025 looked like this:
- howitzer ammunition (122 mm, 152 mm, and 203 mm) – 3.4 million;
- mortar mines (120 mm and 240 mm) – 2.3 million;
- ammunition for tanks and armored personnel carriers – 0.8 million;
- rockets for MLRS – 0.5 million.
In addition to its own production, Russia actively imports ammunition. Since 2023, Moscow has received 5–7 million shells from Iran and North Korea. According to intelligence reports, ammunition from North Korea accounted for up to half of all shells fired by Russia at Ukraine in the second half of 2025.
The purchase of these munitions cost Russia approximately 1 trillion rubles (10.6 billion euros) in 2025. At the same time, the cost price remains low: for example, a 152 mm caliber shell costs less than 100,000 rubles (about 1,050 euros), which is several times cheaper than Western counterparts of 155 mm caliber.
"For the Kremlin, maintaining these reserves is almost certainly a critical element of planning for potential future conflicts... Russia has set itself long-term operational goals in the war against Ukraine. This confirms that the recent revival of rhetoric about peace talks is merely a tactic to buy time," the report says.
