Ukraine is predicted to see "Finnish scenario" for end of war, - JPMorgan Chase report
The war could end according to the ‘Finnish scenario’: without a complete victory for Russia, but with possible territorial losses for Ukraine.
According to Censor.NET, this is stated in a report by the largest US bank, JPMorgan Chase.
The bank’s analysts note that the most likely scenario for the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war is the so-called "Finnish scenario", under which Ukraine may lose some territory but retain its sovereignty, its own army, and its strategic course towards integration with the West.
Negotiations as the key to ending the war
The document notes that the war is likely to end through negotiations, as the situation on the front line has effectively reached a stalemate and no significant changes to the line of contact have been recorded for over two years.
JPMorgan suggests that, as part of a possible compromise, Ukraine may agree to neutral status, as well as certain restrictions on the size and capabilities of its armed forces. At the same time, Russia will be able to present such an outcome as a political victory, without having achieved Ukraine’s complete surrender.
The ‘Finnish scenario’ as the main model
Analysts compare the potential course of events with Finland’s experience following the war with the USSR, when the country lost around 10% of its territory but retained its democratic system, market economy, and Western orientation, avoiding direct confrontation with Moscow.
At the same time, the bank notes that scenario assessments have changed compared to the previous year: whereas the "Georgian scenario" – with Ukraine returning to Russia’s orbit – was previously considered the baseline, its probability has now decreased.
According to JPMorgan’s updated assessments, the probability of the "Finnish scenario" stands at around 50%, the "Georgian" at 30%, the "Israeli" at 10%, and the "South Korea" and "Belarus" scenarios at 5% each.
