Neither Putin nor Trump have cards and have miscalculated, - FT
When Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Donald Trump called it a "brilliant" decision. However, Russia’s aggression became one of the costliest mistakes of our time—until Donald Trump launched Operation "Epic Rage" in Iran.
Financial Times columnist Edward Luce reports this in his article "Putin and Trump Have No Cards," according to Censor.NET.
Details
Both Putin and Trump believed their opponents were weak and expected a quick victory. Each of them is burdening their countries with costs whose consequences will linger long after they leave office. Meanwhile, China stands to gain the most from this.
"The gap between Trump's goals and the actual results in the Persian Gulf is just as wide as it is for Putin in Donbas," the article states.
The commentator believes that Putin and Trump have set traps for themselves.
"In Putin's case, the failure of his 'special operation' is existential. He is less inclined to acknowledge reality, as it would cost him his position, and possibly his life. For Trump, the problem is more about pride and politics: no statements or artificially created media noise can hide the fact that he has to negotiate with a regime he previously promised to completely destroy. And by doing so, he is only strengthening its position," he noted.
Ukraine has maps
Lus believes that some of the "cards" have been handed over to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ukraine has turned the front line into a graveyard for the Russian army. Every month, Russia loses about 35,000 soldiers.
At the same time, Ukraine is striking oil facilities, factories, and infrastructure deep inside Russia—at distances of up to 1,000 km.
Putin even had to ask Trump to pressure Zelenskyy to ensure that Ukrainian drones did not attack the May 9 parade on Red Square.
"Putin promised the Russian people that he would protect their lives from war. But the toll in lives and economic costs affects all Russians and threatens his grip on power," the author noted.
At the same time, Ukraine has gained a stronger position in its relations with Trump. The Pentagon was rapidly depleting its stockpiles of missiles and air defense systems in the Middle East, while Ukraine turned the tide of the war by learning to shoot down Russian targets with inexpensive interceptors.
"Trump had previously told Zelenskyy that Ukraine 'has no cards to play,' but now Kyiv has its own technologies and military solutions that are of great interest to the Pentagon. And this gives Ukraine new leverage," the author emphasized.
The geopolitical damage that Russia and the United States have inflicted on themselves is similar.
"Russia's failure to subdue Ukraine is the most costly failed war in modern history. By intimidating neighbors such as Finland, Putin has, through his own actions, more than doubled the length of NATO's border with Russia," said Luce.
Trump also mistakenly believed that Iran would provide the U.S. with a convenient new leader, similar to the situation in Venezuela. This was an illusion, and he did not listen to the experts, the author writes.
Although China stands to gain from the mistakes of Putin and Trump, the main winners are the middle powers, which are gradually increasing their influence (with the exception, for example, of Israel), he believes.
"U.S. influence in the Middle East has effectively waned. Iran is likely to emerge as a regional power that other countries will have to reckon with. Ukraine, at the very least, will become a key NATO partner in a world that no longer depends entirely on the United States. In different ways, but Kyiv and Tehran are demonstrating how smaller countries can significantly weaken stronger states. Taiwan is not the only country closely studying these lessons," concluded Luce.
