Russia combines pressure on front and "diplomatic signals," - Estonian intelligence
At the same time, Moscow continues to exert military pressure on Ukraine while demonstrating a clear willingness to negotiate.
According to Censor.NET, citing ERR, this is stated in the weekly report of the Estonian Defense Forces.
"Russia continued to portray Ukraine as a party that is not interested in genuine negotiations, while accusing the West of prolonging the war," the report states.
Estonian intelligence reports a decrease in the number of combat engagements—from about 250 to 230 per day.
"On the battlefield, the Russian Armed Forces continue their slow and resource-intensive advance, primarily using infiltration tactics," analysts note.
At the same time, it is emphasized that there are no signs of an operational breakthrough by Russian forces, and some of the reported "successes" may be exaggerated as part of the information war.
Information warfare, casualties, and advances on the front lines
The report also specifically mentions the intensification of the Russian Federation’s information operations.
"There are indications that Russia may be using video footage created or altered using artificial intelligence… to support false claims about the capture of positions," the document states.
According to the data presented in the report:
"Russian troops have captured about 16 square kilometers of territory, with losses amounting to about 1,295 people per day."
It is also noted that Ukraine is partially offsetting Russia’s numerical superiority through the widespread use of drones.
Ukrainian Strikes on Russian Logistics
Estonian intelligence reports an increase in Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistics and transportation hubs, particularly in the occupied territories.
"Regular attacks on bridges, highways, and logistics convoys are causing increasingly serious disruptions," the report states.
Despite the strikes on Russian infrastructure, Russia's capacity to launch large-scale attacks remains intact.
The report mentions one of the largest-scale attacks:
"About 70 missiles and more than 600 drones were launched," analysts note.
The Baltic Theater and the Redeployment of the Russian Navy
There are also reports of a change in the deployment of the Russian Baltic Fleet's forces.
"Ships and support vessels… were redeployed to the Kaliningrad region," the report states.
Estonian analysts attribute this to the risk of Ukrainian strikes and a reassessment of the security situation in the region.
"Russia has not achieved its strategic objectives," concludes the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center.
According to analysts, the Kremlin is trying to combine military pressure with diplomatic rhetoric without changing the key objectives of the war.
