West is considering four scenarios for escalation of war by Russia, - Financial Times
Despite Western expectations that pressure on the Kremlin will intensify, Russia’s actual capacity for a large-scale escalation of the war against Ukraine remains limited. At the same time, Western allies are preparing for various scenarios in the coming months.
According to Censor.NET, columnist Gideon Rachman writes about this in an article for the Financial Times.
According to the author, the increased precision of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and the fuel crisis in Russia have reinforced the sense that the course of the war is shifting. At the same time, there are two main assessments of the situation among Western strategists: some expect a dangerous escalation from the Kremlin, while others believe that Russia’s resources for such a move are significantly limited.
Four possible scenarios
As the FT notes, analysts are considering four main options for Russia’s next moves:
- an escalation of conventional hostilities on the front lines in Ukraine;
- the use of nuclear weapons;
- direct aggression against NATO countries;
- an intensification of hybrid warfare, including sabotage, cyberattacks, and attacks on critical infrastructure.
The publication notes that Russia may increase the number of troops on the front lines, but Western officials estimate its losses at approximately 35,000 killed and wounded each month, which exceeds the rate at which personnel are being replenished. According to experts, a general mobilization could provoke a negative reaction within Russia.
Nuclear threats have lost their impact
The article emphasizes that although the Kremlin has repeatedly threatened to use tactical nuclear weapons, these statements are now taken less seriously. Western officials believe that Xi Jinping has made it clear to Moscow that the use of nuclear weapons is unacceptable, and the Kremlin itself is aware of the risk of a direct response from the West.
The most likely risk is hybrid warfare
According to the author, a direct Russian attack on NATO countries remains unlikely due to the high risks for the Kremlin. At the same time, a more realistic scenario is an escalation of hybrid warfare—sabotage, cyberattacks, and other operations against Western infrastructure.
However, even this option, as the FT notes, carries significant risks for Russia itself, since Western nations also have the capacity to respond.
The author concludes that all possible scenarios of escalation have significant drawbacks for the Kremlin. Despite this, there are no signs yet that the Russian leadership is prepared to abandon its maximalist goals, so Ukraine and its allies are bracing for a difficult summer.
