European intelligence agencies have warned of risk of banking crisis in Russia as early as 2026, - Reuters
The risk of a major banking crisis in Russia is growing, and one could unfold as early as 2026. This is the conclusion reached by the intelligence service of one European country, which prepared an analytical report for European officials ahead of the adoption of a new package of sanctions against Moscow.
According to Censor.NET, Reuters reports this, citing a European intelligence report.
A two-page document entitled "Memo on the likelihood of a banking crisis in Russia in 2026" notes that, despite the resilience of the Russian banking system to sanctions following the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the situation is gradually deteriorating due to the accumulation of non-performing loans and the growing debt burden on businesses and the population.
European intelligence points to hidden risks
The authors of the document note that Russian banks are being forced to actively provide loans to defence enterprises, mortgage schemes and other state projects on preferential terms. At the same time, government support programmes, loan restructuring and state subsidies merely mask the true state of the financial system.
"The situation creates the illusion of a dynamic economy, which in reality masks a volatile situation that could be triggered by an economic shock — for example, an ambitious package of sanctions against banks," the report states.
According to the authors of the document, around 10 per cent of corporate loans are already non-performing, which is significantly higher than a year earlier. At some major banks, the proportion of non-performing retail loans reached 15 per cent in 2025.
Bankruptcies are on the rise, and household debt is increasing
Reuters reports that over 500,000 Russians officially declared bankruptcy in 2025. This is almost a third more than the previous year.
Furthermore, government loan schemes have resulted in more than 13 million Russian citizens having at least three loans at the same time.
The country’s second-largest bank, VTB, has already announced its intention to increase its provisions to cover potential loan losses. At the same time, the amount of cash outside the banking system has risen by more than 17 per cent over the past year, exceeding 19 trillion roubles, which is putting further pressure on the financial sector.
The Central Bank of the Russian Federation denies the threat
Philipp Gabunia, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Russia, stated that the situation in the financial sector remains under control. According to him, banks’ capital buffers are at their highest level in the last three years, whilst the proportion of non-performing corporate loans remains at around 4 per cent.
At the same time, Chris Weifer, an analyst at Macro Advisory, believes that the Russian economy is already in a state of stagnation. However, in his view, large-scale government spending on defence is, for the time being, preventing a full-blown financial crisis from taking hold, whilst some of Russia’s Asian partners continue to ignore Western sanctions.
