Kremlin sees no grounds for compromise and expects to achieve its goals by military means, - media
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is unwilling to compromise on Ukraine and continues to rely on military pressure, despite the failure of his previous strategic calculations.
According to Censor.NET, analysts at the Carnegie Centre have written about this in an article for Foreign Affairs.
The authors of the article note that the Kremlin had considered three possible scenarios.
The first envisaged an agreement with US President Donald Trump and the imposition of a peace deal favourable to Moscow on Ukraine. The second was to wait for US support for Kyiv to cease, after which Russia would achieve victory. The third scenario involved continuing the war until Ukraine was exhausted.
According to the authors, none of these plans came to fruition. The US continues to provide Ukraine with intelligence support and maintains sanctions against Russia, whilst European allies have made up for part of the reduced US aid.
Why Putin refuses to negotiate
Despite these setbacks, Putin shows no willingness to change his military objectives. Analysts believe that the Russian economy, although under significant pressure, still allows the Kremlin to finance the war.
According to their estimates, Russia is spending around 8 per cent of its GDP on defence, shifting a significant portion of the financial burden onto the regions, businesses and the population through inflation and cuts to other budgetary expenditure.
The Kremlin relies on repression and public support
The article notes that the Russian authorities are maintaining control of the situation through a vast repressive apparatus, censorship, digital surveillance and law enforcement agencies.
Furthermore, the Kremlin is using Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory to ramp up propaganda and foster a ‘rally round the flag’ effect. The authors cite data from an independent polling centre, according to which over 65 per cent of those surveyed support the actions of the Russian army.
Moscow maintains its military capabilities
Analysts also point out that Russia continues to ramp up production of guided aerial bombs and ballistic missiles, and may resort to a new wave of mobilisation if necessary, focusing it mainly on the country’s poorer regions.
An intensification of hybrid pressure on European states cannot be ruled out either.
Foreign Affairs concludes that Putin does not yet see any grounds for genuine negotiations, as he believes he still has the capacity to wear down Ukraine and its partners.
According to the authors, Ukraine and its allies should prepare for a protracted standoff, as the Kremlin, despite its domestic problems, is not currently ruling out continuing the war.
